13:20 York

Saturday 18 July 2020

All12:1512:4513:2013:5514:3015:0515:4016:10

William Hill Novice Stakes

Off time: 13:20 | Winning time: 1m 38.52s

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Selected odds by:

(5)

Dawn Blaze⁶⁴⁵

Age: 4| Weight: 9-10| J: Rhona Pindar⁽⁷⁾| T: K R Burke

50/1

Not seen for 645-days since finishing down the field in a novice event on debut over C&D in October 2018. Difficult to know what to expect after such a long absence, and is subsequently best watched for the time being.

Form: 9/

(9)

Cityzen Serg¹⁴

Age: 3| Weight: 9-2| J: B A Curtis| T: R Hannon| OR: 80

7/1

Bumped into useful sorts on each of his three starts in novice company. Interesting that connections opt to stay in that sphere, despite the fact he now has a handicap mark. Experience on his side, but doesn't look like he is progressing.

Form: 223

(8)

El Ray

Age: 3| Weight: 9-2| J: K Stott| T: K A Ryan

13/2

Lope De Vega colt cost €110,000 as a yearling and is a full brother to Irish 2000 Guineas winner Phoenix Of Spain. Half-brother to a further six winners and no surprise to see this newcomer run a big race.

Form:

(3)

My Oberon⁴¹

Age: 3| Weight: 9-2| J: Tom Marquand| T: W J Haggas

10/11

Posted a likeable debut effort when fifth behind Sunray Major at Newmarket (1m; good). It looked a decent race at the time and the third has come out and won since. Yard/jockey both in solid form. Likely player granted natural improvement.

Form: 5

(2)

Purple Knight¹²

Age: 3| Weight: 9-2| J: A Mullen| T: K R Burke

50/1

Green on debut and beaten a fair way when seventh at Thirsk (1m; good) at the start of the month. Considerably step up needed now, and perhaps looks more of a handicap project. Best watched until entering that sphere.

Form: 7

(4)

Sidereal¹²

Age: 3| Weight: 9-2| J: Rob Hornby| T: A M Balding

17/2

Took a good step forward from poor debut effort to finish third at Windsor (1m; good to firm) behind two useful looking types. Major player on that form, and if able to progress again he could be the one to beat.

Form: 03

(1)

Thunder Gap

Age: 3| Weight: 9-2| J: G Lee| T: T P Tate

33/1

By Night Of Thunder. Unsold for 19,000gns as a yearling. Half-brother to two-year-old winner Noble Lineage, and his dam was placed in Group company. Yard not well known for producing winning newcomers so best watched on debut.

Form:

(7)

Tasaamuh²⁵

Age: 3| Weight: 8-11| J: Dane O'Neill| T: R Varian

7/2

Finished third on debut at Kempton (1m; standard to slow), despite racing keenly. Form of that contest not necessarily well advertised by the winner since, but this doesn't look a very strong race so she should be bang there as she switches to turf.

Form: 3

Non-Runners

(6)

Nitro Express²⁶⁰

Weight: 9-2| Age: 3

T: H & R Charlton J: Non Runner

Forecasts

My Oberon (10/11), Tasaamuh (7/2), El Ray (13/2), Cityzen Serg (7/1), Nitro Express (8/1), Sidereal (17/2), Thunder Gap (33/1), Purple Knight (50/1), Dawn Blaze (50/1)

A market check is advised with El Ray who is well-bred and wouldn't have to be a superstar to make a winning debut. Sidereal is respected, and if he can take as big a step forward as he did when last seen he has major claims. William Haggas has a 17% strike-rate on the Knavesmire and it would be no surprise to see My Oberon improve that record given he should improve a fair bit from his debut effort at HQ. In an open race though, we'll go with TASAAMUH who switches to turf after posting a solid debut effort when placed at Kempton. He wouldn't need to improve too much on that form to get off the mark at the second attempt.