15:40 Bath

Thursday 2 July 2020

All14:1014:4015:1015:4016:1516:5017:2017:50

Swineford Handicap

Off time: 15:42 | Winning time: 1m 10.88s

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Selected odds by:

(1)

Real Estate^p⁷

Age: 5| Weight: 9-7| J: Rossa Ryan| T: M J Attwater| OR: 78| D

5/4

Won over the minimum trip here last May (from an 8lb lower mark) and made good progress afterwards; posted two respectable efforts last month - didn't get a clear run when just behind Union Rose last time - and has sound claims once more.

Form: 11-1423

(9)

May Remain^p²²

Age: 5| Weight: 9-6| J: Cieren Fallon⁽³⁾| T: George Baker| OR: 77| BF| D

6/1

In the frame in both previous starts since joining his current trainer but best form on turf (in Ireland) was achieved with some give underfoot. First time back on grass since last October and no easy task now raised another 2lb in the handicap.

Form: 019-123

(8)

Boom The Groom²⁴

Age: 9| Weight: 9-6| J: Tom Marquand| T: A W Carroll| OR: 77| D

8/1

Almost four years since the gelding last won on turf but he's attractively weighted and is proven under the conditions. Possible age is catching up with him these days but he's consistent enough to merit checking out for a place in the frame.

Form: 7-27244

(5)

Union Rose^v⁷

Age: 8| Weight: 9-5| J: K T O'Neill| T: R Harris| OR: 76| CD

5/1

Ran a blinder to finish second here last week (at odds of 33/1, Real Estate was unlucky in third) and dangerous to omit back at her favourite racecourse. Obvious chance with a 3lb higher mark looming; a player.

Form: 1605-02

(4)

Moonraker⁷

Age: 8| Weight: 9-2| J: Theodore Ladd⁽³⁾| T: M Appleby| OR: 73| D

25/1

Won on Fibresand at Southwell last December but mixed form since. Held by a couple of these back on turf here last week and has work to do to reverse the form.

Form: 1-36548

(6)

Show Me The Bubbly¹⁷

Age: 4| Weight: 8-13| J: Gavin Ashton⁽⁷⁾| T: J G M O'Shea| OR: 70| CD

10/1

Won over C&D last May and holds a reasonable chance from just a 3lb higher mark. Might have needed the run when eighth of ten here last time (Union Rose was last) and the rider's 7lb claim is a handy aid at the weights.

Form: 33208-8

(3)

More Than Likely¹⁷

Age: 4| Weight: 8-12| J: J F Egan| T: Mrs N S Evans| OR: 69| D

100/1

Finds herself on an attractive mark for the new campaign and the fact she split Show Me The Bubbly and Union Rose in last month's stable debut reads better than her finishing position would have you believe. Worth a betting check at least.

Form: 41372-9

(2)

Michaels Choice^b²³⁹

Age: 4| Weight: 8-12| J: David Probert| T: W Jarvis| OR: 69| CD

10/1

Has the ability to figure strongly at this level (his run when fourth at Sandown last September reads well in the context of this race; especially as he won next time out). Lack of a recent run is a concern, though. The betting can guide.

Form: 645417-

(7)

Venture^v1¹⁰

Age: 4| Weight: 8-11| J: Laura Coughlan⁽⁷⁾| T: T Ward| OR: 68| D

14/1

Won at Kempton last November (debut run for this yard) but struggled to make progress since; 0-3 on turf and does need to step up considerably after a moderate effort at Windsor last month. The first-time visor might help but others more appealing.

Form: 947930

Forecasts

Real Estate (5/4), Union Rose (5/1), May Remain (6/1), Boom The Groom (8/1), Michaels Choice (10/1), Show Me The Bubbly (10/1), Venture (14/1), Moonraker (25/1), More Than Likely (100/1)

A tough one to call as several come into this with solid claims; not least Real Estate, who was unlucky to be denied a run when behind Union Rose over C&D last week. A trouble-free passage might well see that from reversed this time. However, a chance is taken on SHOW ME THE BUBBLY now that she's got the benefit of a seasonal run to draw upon. This course suits the filly well and, with conditions to suit, she looks good value in a closely knit handicap. By contrast, Michaels Choice might be better once his fitness is topped up but he along with More Than Likely is worth checking in the betting too.