15:50 Market Rasen

Thursday 16 January 2020

All12:4013:1013:4014:1014:4515:2015:50

Thank You And Best Wishes Paul Ash Handicap Chase

Off time: 15:53 | Winning time: 6m 47.91s

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Selected odds by:

Gold Patrol^p⁹³

Age: 12| Weight: 11-12| J: Callum McKinnes⁽⁷⁾| T: J Coulson| OR: 100| D

20/1

Veteran; has eased 17lb in the weights (without an upturn in fortunes) since returning to rules action in November 2018; it's far safer to look elsewhere for the solution.

Form: 344P-57

Pakie's Dream^p⁴²

Age: 6| Weight: 11-11| J: Sean Quinlan| T: J Candlish| OR: 99

7/2

11-race maiden; ran his best race for Jennie Candlish (third start) when a one-paced third to Zara Hope (Cavalry Scout second) over C&D (soft) six weeks ago; one of the likelier candidates.

Form: 065P43

Square Viviani³⁶

Age: 9| Weight: 11-9| J: Billy Garritty⁽⁵⁾| T: Micky Hammond| OR: 97| BF| D

8/1

Bolted up by 18L at Hexham (3m, heavy) in early November; jumped deplorably back there the following month and is undoubtedly flattered by the manner of that earlier success; is considered anything but reliable.

Form: PFP-51P

Madera Mist²¹

Age: 6| Weight: 11-6| J: Alan Johns| T: Tim Vaughan| OR: 94| D

13/2

Lightly raced (0-5); couldn't take advantage of a golden opportunity (left in the lead at the second last) on rules chasing debut at Wetherby (3m, soft) on Boxing Day; with minimal improvement rates as a possible place player.

Form: 2-56533

Conas Taoi^p³¹

Age: 11| Weight: 11-4| J: Jack Tudor⁽⁷⁾| T: Christian Williams| OR: 92| BF| D

13/2

8-28 over fences; runner-up over C&D last February (Square Viviani third) before going one-place better at Carlisle (3m2f, good to soft); reasonably consistent since from this kind of mark; place claims.

Form: 3333-34

Petronella Manners^p¹³

Age: 7| Weight: 11-0| J: Hugh Nugent⁽⁵⁾| T: H D Daly| OR: 88

14/1

15-race maiden; was always towards the rear (pulled-up) on her second attempt over fences at Hereford (3m1f, heavy) 13 days ago; no obvious reason as to why she should fare any better.

Form: 58-774P

Cavalry Scout^p,t⁴²

Age: 7| Weight: 10-7| J: Ross Chapman| T: Laura Morgan| OR: 81| BF

11/4

Wasn't the most convincing on his chasing debut at Newcastle, but negotiated a safe passage when finishing 6L second to Zara Hope (Pakie's Dream third) over C&D (soft) on his next start; 2lb higher.

Form: 944P-42

L'Es Fremantle¹⁵²

Age: 9| Weight: 10-1| J: Pte Alexandra Bell⁽⁷⁾| T: M C Chapman| OR: 75| C

50/1

Sole win (from 65 starts) came when finishing like a whirlwind at odds of 80-1 over 2m5½f here (good) in November 2018; eight of his nine subsequent starts have come at his local track; if he wins, he wins, but you couldn't be a backer.

Form: 5-55773

Sidsteel^t³⁴

Age: 9| Weight: 10-0| J: C J Todd⁽⁷⁾| T: J Groucott| OR: 74

9/1

14-race maiden (0-4 over fences); front-running tactics almost paid dividends at Bangor (2m4½f, soft) in October - caught close home by Grand Coureur; this track could suit; stamina reserves aren't guaranteed at 3m.

Form: 20/7-2P3

Midnight Mustang^p⁴²

Age: 13| Weight: 10-0| J: Shane Quinlan⁽⁵⁾| T: Andrew Martin| OR: 71| CD

10/1

Twice successful at Market Rasen previously (including over 3m); lost his place after a slow jump mid-race when pulled-up behind Zara Hope over C&D (soft) six weeks ago; on that evidence shouldn't be troubling either Cavalry Scout or Pakie's Dream.

Form: 625-64P

Forecasts

Cavalry Scout (11/4), Pakie's Dream (7/2), Conas Taoi (13/2), Madera Mist (13/2), Square Viviani (8/1), Sidsteel (9/1), Midnight Mustang (10/1), Petronella Manners (14/1), Gold Patrol (20/1), L'Es Fremantle (50/1)

Sidsteel (trip) and Square Viviani (temperament) come with risks attached but certainly wouldn't be completely surprising winners of a very modest Market Rasen finale. Furthermore, the consistent 11yo Conas Taoi is considered a realistic place contender. However the December C&D clash between Cavalry Scout and PAKIE'S DREAM provides the most relevant clues as to the potential outcome. With the fencing technique of Laura Morgan's charge still a work in progress, we'll chance that the latter-named Jennie Candlish representative can reverse those placings.