13:20 Ludlow

Thursday 16 January 2020

All12:5013:2013:5014:2014:5515:3016:00

C.B.Security Novices' Hurdle (Div 2)

Off time: 13:25 | Winning time: 4m 6.7s

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Selected odds by:

Ahead Of Schedule²⁹

Age: 5| Weight: 11-4| J: James Nixon⁽⁵⁾| T: Mrs N S Evans

100/1

0-7 in the point-to-point sphere, and was well-beaten over 1m6f in a bumper at this track on rules debut last month. This looks a better contest on paper, and so he cannot be fancied at all.

Form: 6-35P36

Allart⁷⁵

Age: 6| Weight: 11-4| J: N de Boinville| T: N J Henderson

8/11

Placed in a decent bumper on rules debut in November 2018, but got no further than the first on hurdles/seasonal debut at Ascot (2m; good to soft) in November. Had plenty of time to recover from that, and so he is a major player for in-form yard.

Form: 3-F

Apache Creek¹⁵

Age: 5| Weight: 11-4| J: R P McLernon| T: J & A O'Neill

66/1

Was never dangerous but did take a step forward from what was a very low-key hurdles debut to finish in midfield at Exeter (2m2f; soft) on New Years Day. This is another competitive event, and he will be of more interest when entering handicaps.

Form: 706

Eau Top³³

Age: 6| Weight: 11-4| J: Luca Morgan⁽⁷⁾| T: B Pauling

4/1

Ran better than expected (sent off at 50-1) on hurdles debut when just missing out on the placings to finish fourth at Hereford (2m3f; soft) last month. That was an improvement on his efforts in bumpers, but he needs to prove it was no fluke.

Form: 56-4

Hunting Percival⁹⁹

Age: 5| Weight: 11-4| J: R Johnson| T: T Lacey

11/1

Well-bred and made the perfect start to life under rules when making a winning debut in a bumper at Wincanton (2m; good to firm). Likely to encounter different ground conditions, but it is significant that Johnson opts to ride him over Java Point.

Form: 1

Java Point²⁰

Age: 5| Weight: 11-4| J: J J Burke| T: K Bailey & M Nicholls| BF

11/2

Point-to-point winner who has shown smart form in bumpers without winning (sent off as favourite on both occasions). Now makes hurdles debut, and is a prospect to look forward to. Champion jockey jumps ship to ride Hunting Percival though.

Form: U1-43

Perfect Percy²⁴⁶

Age: 5| Weight: 11-4| J: Jordan Nailor⁽⁵⁾| T: N & W Twiston-Davies

100/1

Sent off at 5-1 but ran nowhere near market expectations when tailed-off at Newton Abbot (2m; good) in May 2019. Now makes seasonal/hurdles debut with a lot to prove. Could have improved since then though so watch the market.

Form: 0

Steel Yard⁴⁶

Age: 5| Weight: 11-4| J: Ross Turner⁽⁵⁾| T: O Greenall & J Guerriero

100/1

£5,000 three-year-old. Looked to be booked for third before he unseated his rider in a Larkhill (2m4f; good) point-to-point 46 days ago. Now makes rules/hurdles debut but is likely to need the experience first time out.

Form: 5U

The Wire Flyer^p⁵⁰

Age: 5| Weight: 11-4| J: Ben Jones⁽⁵⁾| T: J L Flint| OR: 112

12/1

Failed to back up promising Ffos Las (2m; soft) second on his penultimate start when tailed-off at Hereford (2m3f; soft) next time out. Not seen since (50 days), which is slightly concerning, and he needs to bounce back.

Form: 520

Prussia With Love²¹

Age: 6| Weight: 10-11| J: Harry Skelton| T: D Skelton

16/1

One of two runners in this for the yard. Would need to step up significantly on the form of her most recent effort when sixth at Market Rasen (2m; good to soft) in what looked a pretty moderate event.

Form: 3-466

Twpsyn^v⁸

Age: 4| Weight: 10-7| J: James Davies| T: P D Evans

33/1

Has probably ran to a similar level on each of his two starts over hurdles, most recently when a well-beaten sixth behind the exciting Mick Pastor over C&D. Difficult to see him getting involved, and he can be ruled out with confidence.

Form: 76

It Can Be Done¹⁸

Age: 4| Weight: 10-0| J: Conor Shoemark| T: D Skelton

100/1

Wasn't unfancied (sent off 8-1) on hurdles debut at Doncaster (2m; good to soft) recently, but ran poorly finishing a distant 11th of 13. Marked improvement required in what looks a competitive event on paper. Readily opposed.

Form: 0

Forecasts

Allart (8/11), Eau Top (4/1), Java Point (11/2), Hunting Percival (11/1), The Wire Flyer (12/1), Prussia With Love (16/1), Twpsyn (33/1), Apache Creek (66/1), It Can Be Done (100/1), Ahead Of Schedule (100/1), Steel Yard (100/1), Perfect Percy (100/1)

After being well-fancied on each of his two starts in bumpers, Java Point hasn't been disgraced despite not winning either of them. Being a winning point-to-pointer, he should improve significantly for a hurdle. However, it looks significant that Richard Johnson has chosen to ride Hunting Percival instead. The aforementioned horse should be bang there, but this is a different test to the one he faced when making a winning debut under rules in a bumper on faster ground. Therefore, the selection is ALLART who fell on hurdles debut and must learn to settle better, but the form of his third in a bumper at Newbury is working out very well and he can set the record straight.