13:05 Ludlow

Monday 25 November 2019

All12:3513:0513:4014:1514:4515:2015:50

Elite Racing Club Novices' Handicap Chase

Off time: 13:05 | Winning time: 6m 30.1s

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Selected odds by:

Loud As Lions^t¹³

Age: 6| Weight: 12-3| J: James Nixon⁽⁵⁾| T: T Symonds| OR: 107

11/4

Hurdles record is rather uneven but he looked a totally different proposition switched to fences at Hereford last time. Jumped superbly from the front (soon had his rivals in trouble); danger to all off a 9lb higher mark if he finds his rhythm again.

Form: 006-331

Top Decision²²

Age: 6| Weight: 11-12| J: Adrian Heskin| T: S Drinkwater| OR: 102

12/1

Only lightly-raced having shown improved form to get off the mark over hurdles (2m3f) on New Year's Eve off a 5lb lower mark. Still without the tongue-tie that he wore for that win last time when failing to complete on chasing debut; steps up to 3m.

Form: 4/P513-U

Moonlight Camp^p1,t¹³

Age: 5| Weight: 11-12| J: R T Dunne| T: N P Mulholland| OR: 102

33/1

Only shown a modest level of form over hurdles since having a wind op; made very little impact off a stiff looking mark on handicap debut when last seen. Quickly switched to fences with cheekpieces added to usual tongue-tie, limited appeal.

Form: 30P-670

Schnabel^t,v1⁵⁴

Age: 7| Weight: 11-11| J: Sam Twiston-Davies| T: David Dennis| OR: 101| C

6/1

Capable sort over hurdles (dual winner) who has yet to match that level of form over fences (0-5) although faring better last time (first run back from a wind op). Late mistakes hampered at Hereford, well handicapped with more fluent jumping.

Form: P-95542

Overawed²⁴

Age: 8| Weight: 11-11| J: Lee Edwards| T: J Groucott| OR: 101

9/1

Benefitted from a break when gaining her first chase win last time taking a weak mares' handicap in fair style at Uttoxeter (2m6f, soft). 6lb rise for that success makes life much harder and she could well struggle to follow up in this deeper heat.

Form: 42534-1

Mr Palmtree^p,t¹³

Age: 6| Weight: 10-6| J: Tabitha Worsley⁽⁵⁾| T: R Dickin| OR: 82

15/2

Stepped forward a little since having a wind op recording his most solid piece of form last time when second at Hereford over 3m plus. Isn't the most straightforward though (can take a strong hold); not certain to repeat that last run.

Form: 62FP-42

Ballybreen¹⁰

Age: 6| Weight: 10-5| J: Adam Wedge| T: Evan Williams| OR: 81| D

12/1

Winning Irish point-to-pointer who has shown no benefit from the switch to fences having been well held in all his hurdles starts. Handicap mark continues to plummet but hard to construct a case for him based on his recent chase starts.

Form: 598-783

Phoenix Song^p1,t²¹

Age: 6| Weight: 10-5| J: Charlie Deutsch| T: J G O'Neill| OR: 81

25/1

Little impact in bumpers/over hurdles with the recent switch to handicaps making little difference to his performance levels. Not certain to be suited by this distance and will need a bigger catalyst than first-time cheekpieces to make an impact.

Form: 7P95-77

Blue Monday^p1,t1¹⁹⁵

Age: 6| Weight: 10-0| J: P J Brennan| T: F O'Brien| OR: 74

2/1

Mixed form in Irish point-to-points (second his best result) and shown very little in novice hurdles. However, connections take him handicapping straight over fences with headgear applied for the first-time; dangerous to ignore a market move.

Form: 4P/205-7

Forecasts

Blue Monday (2/1), Loud As Lions (11/4), Schnabel (6/1), Mr Palmtree (15/2), Overawed (9/1), Ballybreen (12/1), Top Decision (12/1), Phoenix Song (25/1), Moonlight Camp (33/1)

If the start that LOUD AS LIONS made to his chasing career at Hereford is repeated here the others will be struggling even though Tom Symonds charge has 9lb extra to cope with, this course lending itself to another front-running display. Overawed can’t be ignored but she will have to produce a career-best while Schnabel will need to jump better to get involved although he’s undeniably well handicapped on his hurdles form. Perhaps the most fascinating runner is Blue Monday, the Fergal O’Brien stable can do little wrong at the moment and switched to handicaps off a basement mark with headgear on he’s one to watch in the betting markets.