15:55 Wincanton

Sunday 27 October 2019

All13:0013:3514:1014:4515:2015:5516:30

Ascot Insurance Group Combat Stress Centenary Novices' Hurdle

Off time: 15:55 | Winning time: 3m 38.3s

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Selected odds by:

Avarchie⁴⁷⁵

Age: 5| Weight: 10-12| J: Bridget Andrews| T: D Skelton

7/1

Ran in three bumpers for three different trainers, improving notably on the last run when winning at Worcester (2m, good) by 3¾L in July 2018. Off since and now fourth trainer for hurdling debut and interesting to see what the market says.

Form: 60/1-

Bells Of Barnack¹⁸

Age: 4| Weight: 10-12| J: Alan Johns| T: Tim Vaughan

100/1

Cost €15,000; his dam (1m1f Flat winner) is a half-sister to good dual purpose horse Manyriverstocross. Beaten 10½L finishing fourth of five on his bumper debut over C&D (good) 18 days ago and attentions quickly switched to hurdles. Best watched.

Form: 4

Blazing Saddles¹¹⁵

Age: 4| Weight: 10-12| J: Kieron Edgar| T: J Scott

12/1

A record 1/10 on the level, included a win over 1m4f. Bought for 25,000 gns and is a half-brother to dual-hurdle winner Outcrop. Yard's horses are running well and had plenty of potential for the NH game.

Form:

Eritage¹⁹⁶

Age: 5| Weight: 10-12| J: H Cobden| T: P F Nicholls| CD

1/1

Joined the Nicholls yard after winning a French bumper and built on a promising GB debut to win over C&D (good) back in April. Plenty of jump winners in his pedigree, including his dam, and has plenty of potential switched to hurdles.

Form: 131-

Escapability²⁰

Age: 4| Weight: 10-12| J: Tom Cannon| T: A King

4/1

A twelve-raced but fair maiden on the Flat who was placed on seven occasions (1m-1m4f). Only beaten a short head at Windsor (1m3½f, soft) when last seen three weeks ago and this trip should be within range on hurdling debut.

Form:

Et Apres Thou¹⁹⁶

Age: 5| Weight: 10-12| J: T J O'Brien| T: P Hobbs & J White

25/1

Well beaten in two bumpers last season, including when 29L behind Eritage over C&D (good) when last seen in April. Half-brother to two winners over jumps and is in good hands so may be open to further improvement.

Form: 59-

Huccaby^h1,t¹⁰

Age: 4| Weight: 10-12| J: T Scudamore| T: D Pipe

100/1

Scarcely beaten a rival in three outings, most recently when beaten 65L on his second hurdling start over C&D (good) 10 days ago. Hood applied for the first time here but it will need to have a dramatic effect for him to be involved.

Form: 888

Lots Of Luck²³²

Age: 5| Weight: 10-12| J: David Bass| T: K Bailey & M Nicholls

50/1

Showed little in two hurdle runs last season, beaten 64L on debut before pulling up next time. Plenty of winners of fences in his pedigree (including One Cool Cookie and In Compliance) and that may be where his future lies down the line.

Form: 8P-

Namib Dancer²³⁸

Age: 5| Weight: 10-12| J: R M Power| T: Miss E C Lavelle

8/1

Two bumper runs last year. Wasn't disgraced despite the margin of defeat on debut and stepped forward on that to finish third, beaten 1¾L, at Huntingdon (2m, good). Bred to better for an obstacle and is open to further improvement.

Form: 63-

Sellingallthetime⁵⁸

Age: 8| Weight: 10-12| J: Brendan Powell| T: M D I Usher

50/1

Four wins (all 1m4f) from 65 runs on the level but has been regressive in that sphere this year. Switches to hurdles late in life compared to most and is best watched.

Form:

Thirsty Farmer

Age: 5| Weight: 10-12| J: M J Quinlan| T: R G Hawker

100/1

Third foal; half-brother to point and hurdle winner (2m3f/2m7f) Gentleman Farmer; dam won four points and is a half-sister to Flat/hurdle/chase winner Sweet Senorita amongst others. Starts off in a decent contest and may need the experience.

Form:

Top Beak¹⁰

Age: 6| Weight: 10-12| J: W T Kennedy| T: Mark Gillard| OR: 103

40/1

Won a Windsor maiden (1m) in 2015 but his form has been steadily regressive in that sphere since. Joined current connections after selling handicap second at Brighton (1m2f, good to firm) but his hurdling form has been moderate in three attempts.

Form: 864

Arctic Footprint²⁴⁷

Age: 5| Weight: 10-5| J: Sean Houlihan⁽³⁾| T: C J Down

50/1

Half-sister to three NH winners, most notably Midlands National winner Regal Flow; dam won two hurdles. Improved on two bumper outings on hurdling debut at Exeter (2m1f, good to soft) but was still well beaten and will probably need further in time.

Form: 078-

Destinys Choice²²³

Age: 6| Weight: 10-5| J: Conor Ring⁽³⁾| T: Evan Williams

40/1

Bought for £70,000 after winning her second start in Irish points. Beaten 28L in a bumper at Southwell (1m7½f, soft) in March (only start for Michael Blake). Related to several NH winners and joins a new yard for hurdling debut.

Form: 51/5-

Gaelic Surprise^h¹⁸

Age: 7| Weight: 10-5| J: James Davies| T: C J Down| OR: 71

200/1

Shown very little in seven outings, including on seasonal debut over C&D (good) 10 days ago when tailed off. Hard to recommend.

Form: 73FP/6-6

Greenview Paradise¹⁰

Age: 5| Weight: 10-5| J: Nick Scholfield| T: J Scott

50/1

Dual AW winner (both 1m6f) earlier this year but not quite in the same form since. Didn't run too badly over C&D (good) last time and may well be seen to better effect in handicaps over further after this.

Form: 9-6

Justu^t¹⁰

Age: 7| Weight: 10-5| J: Conor Shoemark| T: R G Hawker

200/1

Had 17 runs in points without success and the switch to hurdles brought about no improvement when tailed off over C&D (good) just over a week ago. Easily passed over.

Form: P/4P22-9

Forecasts

Eritage (1/1), Escapability (4/1), Avarchie (7/1), Namib Dancer (8/1), Blazing Saddles (12/1), Et Apres Thou (25/1), Destinys Choice (40/1), Top Beak (40/1), Sellingallthetime (50/1), Arctic Footprint (50/1), Greenview Paradise (50/1), Lots Of Luck (50/1), Huccaby (100/1), Bells Of Barnack (100/1), Thirsty Farmer (100/1), Justu (200/1), Gaelic Surprise (200/1)

It could be another winner for Paul Nicholls in this race with dual bumper winner ERITAGE. He has lots of relatives who have won over hurdles and if translating his bumper form, will be hard to beat. Escapability showed a fair level of form on the Flat and should have no problems with this trip or ground on hurdling debut whilst Namib Dancer learnt plenty from his debut last time and could improve again over hurdles.