19:10 Kempton

Wednesday 23 October 2019

All16:4017:1017:4018:1018:4019:1019:4020:10

32Red.com EBF Novice Stakes

Off time: 19:13 | Winning time: 1m 27.7s

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Selected odds by:

(14)

Bayar

Age: 2| Weight: 9-5| J: H Crouch| T: C G Cox

20/1

Cost 35,000 gns as foal but the price rose to 72,000 gns as a yearling; he's a half-brother to two winners on the AW and should have no issue with being introduced over this trip (his dam won over 6f and up to a mile as a juvenile). Widest drawn.

Form:

(6)

Bee Magic¹⁸

Age: 2| Weight: 9-5| J: M Dwyer| T: W R Muir

66/1

Well beaten on debut over 7f at Wolverhampton and needs a big improvement on that evidence. Others appear to hold more convincing chances.

Form: 0

(9)

Creek Horizon

Age: 2| Weight: 9-5| J: David Egan| T: S bin Suroor

13/2

An Invincible Spirit colt out of a Seeking The Gold mare; he's bred to appreciate a synthetic surface and, being out of UAE 1,000 Guineas winner Satin Kiss, he has to merit an interest at this level; yard is flying, so well worth considering.

Form:

(1)

Estate House

Age: 2| Weight: 9-5| J: George Wood| T: J R Fanshawe

14/1

An unraced son of Oasis Dream out of a Giant's Causeway mare; he's a brother to winners on synthetics and is bred to appreciate at least this trip. Well drawn to gain a handy position. No surprise if he goes close on debut.

Form:

(2)

Fruition⁵⁴

Age: 2| Weight: 9-5| J: Tom Marquand| T: W J Haggas

2/1

First foal of an unraced half-sister to a couple of Listed race winners (1m up to 1m2f respectively) but looked in need of the experience on debut. Faded when asked for effort on that occasion and might already need a longer trip.

Form: 9

(5)

Lord Neidin²¹

Age: 2| Weight: 9-5| J: T P Queally| T: A King

11/2

Cost £28,000 and is a half-brother to AW winner Cosmopolitan as well as a couple of winners over hurdles and further than this on the Flat. Showed promise on debut but not certain to appreciate dropping back a furlong in trip.

Form: 3

(4)

Magical Morning

Age: 2| Weight: 9-5| J: R Havlin| T: J & T Gosden

9/2

Nicely bred colt out of The Lark, who was a Group 3 winner that also finished third in her germination's Oaks at Epsom. Pedigree further boosted by being a sister to Group 2 winner Eagle Top and a decent handicapper over 1m2f; another to consider.

Form:

(13)

Moment Of Peace⁹

Age: 2| Weight: 9-5| J: A McCarthy| T: Mrs C A Dunnett

150/1

A cheap purchase who made no impression on debut at Yarmouth last week and hard to recommend as one to follow given that he finished 25½L behind the winner that day.

Form: 0

(12)

Raatea³³

Age: 2| Weight: 9-5| J: Dane O'Neill| T: M P Tregoning

13/2

Showed promise on debut but latest start (in a conditions race at Newbury) was a step in the wrong direction. However, this is a big ease in grade so it's feasible he can bounce back. Dangerous to underestimate.

Form: 36

(11)

Rocking My Boat

Age: 2| Weight: 9-5| J: William Carver⁽⁵⁾| T: N P Littmoden

66/1

Cost just €7,000 as a foal; ordinary pedigree but suited to tonight's trip. One that is likely to be a lot sharper for the run.

Form:

(10)

Satono Japan

Age: 2| Weight: 9-5| J: Jason Watson| T: Sir Michael Stoute

14/1

A Deep Impact colt out of a Dubawi mare who is a close relative of a 1m winner in Japan; as well as being a half-brother to Group 3 winning miler Liberty Heights; yard always highly respected with runners of this type; merits consideration.

Form:

(8)

Tippler

Age: 2| Weight: 9-5| J: Harry Bentley| T: Sir M Todd

66/1

A €20,000 purchase as a two-year-old, his dam is a relative of the useful 1m2f winner Auld Burns; appeals as one to monitor as he gain in experience from here.

Form:

(7)

Marble Bay

Age: 2| Weight: 9-0| J: C Lee| T: P D Evans

50/1

Cost 17,000 gns; she's a half-sister to Masterson, a decent performer on the Flat from 1m2f up to 2m as well as holding winning over hurdles (2m4f); this trip looks the bare minimum for the filly on debut.

Form:

Non-Runners

(3)

Tom Collins¹³

Weight: 9-5| Age: 2

T: D R C Elsworth J: G Mosse

Forecasts

Fruition (2/1), Magical Morning (9/2), Lord Neidin (11/2), Raatea (13/2), Creek Horizon (13/2), Tom Collins (10/1), Satono Japan (14/1), Estate House (14/1), Bayar (20/1), Marble Bay (50/1), Tippler (66/1), Rocking My Boat (66/1), Bee Magic (66/1), Moment Of Peace (150/1)

Another race where the betting market will play a strong part in providing clues to unexposed types and newcomers; Tom Collins is going the right way and might well improve for the step up in trip, while Magical Morning is bred to make an impact as a three-year-old but certainly merits an interest in being pitched at this level on debut; Estate House is another with a likable pedigree and is worth a betting check. However, preference is for CREEK HORIZON, who is bred to be suited by a synthetic surface and is a potentially useful tool for Godolphin to be introducing at this time of year.