16:55 Ascot

Friday 4 October 2019

All14:0014:3515:1015:4516:2016:55

Original Harrogate Water Handicap

Off time: 16:56 | Winning time: 1m 17.03s

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Selected odds by:

(3)

Dazzling Dan²⁰

Age: 3| Weight: 9-7| J: David Probert| T: Mrs P Sly| OR: 104| D

8/1

Brave winner of a 6f Class 2 handicap at Newmarket (good) in August; never better than midfield in the Portland Handicap at Doncaster (5½f) latest - overall form has a rock-solid feel (through Oxted); races from a joint career high mark (104).

Form: 216310

(10)

Roulston Scar²⁶

Age: 3| Weight: 9-1| J: Megan Nicholls⁽³⁾| T: K A Ryan| OR: 98| D

3/1

Has enjoyed a productive 3yo season, winning three-times in five starts; 8lb higher than when making all for today's rider Megan Nicholls in a Class 3 handicap at York (6f, good) last month; more required.

Form: 5-13131

(2)

Tinto¹⁵

Age: 3| Weight: 8-13| J: Marco Ghiani⁽⁷⁾| T: Mrs A J Perrett| OR: 96| D

16/1

Continues to defy the attentions of the handicapper, taking his form to a whole new level in recent starts; was well on top of Swiss Knight when winning a Class 3 handicap at Yarmouth (6f, good to firm) a fortnight ago; sits 5lb higher.

Form: 406321

(8)

Mubakker³¹

Age: 3| Weight: 8-13| J: Jim Crowley| T: Sir Michael Stoute| OR: 96| D

3/1

$500,000 yearling; unbeaten in two starts on the AW, taking the scalp of the Ayr Gold Cup winner Angel Alexander at Wolverhampton (6f) last November; of significant interest on handicap debut despite an opening mark of 96.

Form: 41-1

(6)

Barbill^p1¹³

Age: 3| Weight: 8-12| J: J F Egan| T: M R Channon| OR: 95| D

10/1

No win since taking a juvenile Listed contest at Chantilly (5½f, very soft) last November; finished well down the field (21st of 25) in the Ayr Gold Cup (6f, good) a fortnight ago; cheekpieces are now introduced.

Form: 005560

(9)

Aplomb⁴⁸

Age: 3| Weight: 8-10| J: Tom Marquand| T: W J Haggas| OR: 93| BF| D

4/1

Runner-up over C&D (Class 4, on soft) in May, progressing swiftly through the ranks since (2 from 5); 5lb higher than when beating Typhoon Ten by a neck at Leicester (6f, good to soft) in August; holds a realistic place chance.

Form: 241614

(4)

Revich²¹

Age: 3| Weight: 8-6| J: Harry Bentley| T: R Spencer| OR: 89

20/1

Broadly consistent throughout the duration of the season (524103); has competed over 7f on each of his last three starts, winning by ¾L at Epsom (good) in July; needs a career best effort off this mark; some ground reservations.

Form: 524103

(11)

Lincoln Park^t1¹³

Age: 3| Weight: 8-4| J: George Wood| T: M Appleby| OR: 87| D

25/1

Confirmed mud-lark who often saves his very best for Haydock Park - was declared there for the abandoned fixture last weekend; disappointing in the Ayr Silver Cup latest; is feasibly handicapped should the first-time tongue-tie offer assistance.

Form: 632570

(7)

Dominus^t⁴²

Age: 3| Weight: 8-4| J: David Egan| T: B J Meehan| OR: 87| D

16/1

Has found life tougher since beating Pendleton by ¾L in a 6f Class 4 handicap at Haydock (good to soft) in July; has some work to do with the likes of Tinto and Aplomb; better suited by an ease in grade in future?

Form: 821745

(5)

Lihou⁴⁸

Age: 3| Weight: 8-2| J: Hollie Doyle| T: P D Evans| OR: 83| D

16/1

Isn't always the most consistent but has shown a useful level of form when firing on all cylinders (particularly on the Roodeye at Chester); sits 4lb above his last winning mark; finished immediately behind Aplomb at Newmarket (6f, good) latest.

Form: 400-715

Non-Runners

(1)

Call Me Ginger¹⁷

Weight: 8-4| Age: 3

T: J S Goldie J: P Mathers

Forecasts

Mubakker (3/1), Roulston Scar (3/1), Aplomb (4/1), Dazzling Dan (8/1), Barbill (10/1), Call Me Ginger (10/1), Tinto (16/1), Lihou (16/1), Dominus (16/1), Revich (20/1), Lincoln Park (25/1)

A tough looking finale on a challenging Ascot card. Dazzling Dan, Roulston Scar and Tinto are all relatively recent winners for whom subsequent weight rises have been introduced, and that promises to make life much tougher moving forward. The upwardly mobile Aplomb is a place possible for William Haggas, although it should be noted that he has related form lines with the likes of Lihou and Barbill. Therefore, in pursuit of the winner we'll seek to examine a couple of the less exposed horses, specifically Call Me Ginger and MUBAKKER. The selection is 2-2 on the AW, with optimism having no real limits on handicap debut.