14:00 Ascot

Friday 4 October 2019

All14:0014:3515:1015:4516:2016:55

Mar-Key Group Classified Stakes (Str)

Off time: 14:03 | Winning time: 1m 47.52s

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Selected odds by:

(3)

Herculean⁴⁹

Age: 4| Weight: 9-3| J: Jason Watson| T: H & R Charlton| OR: 90| BF| C

15/8

Won his maiden at this track (7f, soft) but yet to win since sent handicapping, so connections now elect to drop back in trip (to 1m) and pursue the classified stakes option; below par on the AW at Chelmsford latest (6-4f).

Form: 213-525

(10)

Lush Life^p²⁷

Age: 4| Weight: 9-3| J: J P Spencer| T: J A Osborne| OR: 90| C| D

8/1

Winner of a 7f Class 4 handicap here (good) last October, and supplemented those gains with an early season victory at Sandown (1m, good to firm); mixed fortunes since and it's questionable as to how she'll handle soft ground.

Form: 160035

(6)

Mr Top Hat²⁹

Age: 4| Weight: 9-3| J: Ray Dawson⁽⁵⁾| T: P D Evans| OR: 87

12/1

Both wins (2-30) have come on soft to heavy ground, including over an extended 1m2f at Chester in May; has found Class 2 handicaps a shade too difficult of late, so should appreciate this ease in grade; Ray Dawson's 5lb claim is a handy asset.

Form: 133465

(9)

Sawwaah^b1²⁸

Age: 4| Weight: 9-3| J: Jim Crowley| T: Owen Burrows| OR: 93| D

9/1

Productive around this time last year, winning a 1m Class 3 Newmarket handicap (good) by 2L; has become disappointing this season, trailing home an eased last of nine behind the mud-lark Ayutthaya at Haydock (1m2f, soft) four weeks ago; blinkers on.

Form: 613-309

(4)

Fox Leicester⁶²

Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| J: S De Sousa| T: A M Balding| OR: 87| D

14/1

Justified favouritism on a couple of occasions this season, most notably when decisively landing the odds in Class 4 handicap at Sandown (1m, good to firm) in May; unfortunately hasn't beaten a single rival in either subsequent start (7f-1m).

Form: 143160

(5)

Model Guest⁶

Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| J: T P Queally| T: G G Margarson| OR: 88| BF

50/1

Close up fifth over C&D (good) in the Class 2 Sandringham Handicap here in June; blew a golden opportunity to break the duck at Yarmouth (maiden) a few weeks later and it's difficult to say that she's headed in a positive direction career wise.

Form: 4-54530

(2)

Mostawaa²⁰

Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| J: David Egan| T: H Main| OR: 84| D

25/1

Made all when a shock 28-1 winner on the AW at Newcastle last November; lightly raced since, only making his handicap debut at Chelmsford (fifth to Attainment) three weeks ago; has a fraction to find on the figures yet remains unexposed.

Form: 71-45

(8)

Target Zone⁷⁶

Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| J: G Mosse| T: D R C Elsworth| OR: 89| D

10/1

Has done the bulk of his racing on the AW, winning a 1m maiden at Kempton in January; off the track for 76 days since finishing fourth of five (12-1) to Ironclad at Newmarket (1m2f, good); the drop back to 1m is considered helpful.

Form: 213544

(1)

Trolius^p²⁸

Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| J: James Doyle| T: S & E Crisford| OR: 90| D

10/1

Won his first three races on the AW (7f-1m+) before a spell of racing in Dubai (twice placed); fair third to Ebury (Tulfarris second) on return from a seven-month absence in a similar C&D classified stakes (good to firm) last month; contender.

Form: 1-36393

(7)

Tulfarris²⁸

Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| J: S Donohoe| T: C Fellowes| OR: 90| D

4/1

French juvenile winner (soft); flown fairly high since making a pleasing start to the season for Charlie Fellowes; went close, beaten ¾L by Ebury in a similar C&D classified stakes (good to firm) last month - third placed Trolius could strip fitter.

Form: 320902

Forecasts

Herculean (15/8), Tulfarris (4/1), Lush Life (8/1), Sawwaah (9/1), Trolius (10/1), Target Zone (10/1), Mr Top Hat (12/1), Fox Leicester (14/1), Mostawaa (25/1), Model Guest (50/1)

A tricky opener with just 6lb separating the entire field on BHA handicap ratings (six of the ten are rated 90). Dave Evans utilises the 5lb claim of Ray Dawson aboard Mr Top Hat and that provides an interesting angle with the eased-in-grade four-year-old gelding perfectly adept under today's conditions. However, the attention is also drawn to TULFARRIS and Trolius who finished second and third respectively in a similar C&D contest last month. The Simon Crisford-trained runner could feasibly strip fitter for that appearance (his first since February), but the selection is more familiar with soft to heavy ground conditions and that tips the scales in his favour.