17:20 Newmarket

Saturday 4 May 2019

All13:5014:2014:5515:3516:1016:4517:20

Qatar Racing Welfare Handicap

Off time: 17:20 | Winning time: 1m 37.64s

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Selected odds by:

(5)

Certain Lad²³

Age: 3| Weight: 9-7| J: Scott McCullagh⁽⁷⁾| T: M R Channon| OR: 101| D

10/1

Won his first two starts and performed with credit in two starts in Group 2 company. Didn't shape all that well on AW return but too soon to be writing him off.

Form: 34316-5

(6)

Victory Command¹⁸

Age: 3| Weight: 9-2| J: J Fanning| T: C & M Johnston| OR: 96

9/1

Won four of his first seven starts and posted a respectable effort when third on dirt at Meydan in January. Struggled badly in three starts since though, including here (7f) last time and questions to answer now.

Form: 44-3904

(3)

Mordred¹⁸

Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| J: S M Levey| T: R Hannon| OR: 94

16/1

Won at Chester in September and shaped like he needed a step up in trip next time at Doncaster. Produced better when runner-up over C&D in September and too keen on his return here at the Craven Meeting; may do better.

Form: 94172-5

(4)

Pogo¹⁵

Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| J: Oisin Murphy| T: C Hills| OR: 94

14/1

7f winner here in August and posted a respectable fourth of eight in Group 3 class at York next time. Outran his odds again in Listed company at Doncaster and was denied a clear run on his return at Newcastle last month; interesting runner.

Form: 51433-6

(7)

Leroy Leroy¹⁴

Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| J: R L Moore| T: R Hannon| OR: 94| D

13/2

Deservedly got his head in front at the fifth time of asking at Doncaster in September and looked like he needed the run at Kempton last month. Has a bit to prove off this mark but likely there's more to come.

Form: 22216-4

(9)

Blonde Warrior²²

Age: 3| Weight: 8-13| J: James Doyle| T: H Palmer| OR: 93

12/1

Won two of his first three starts and ended his two-year-old career with a good second at Chelmsford. However, produced a dismal effort on his comeback at Newbury and while ground a possible excuse, he needs to leave that well behind.

Form: 21182-0

(8)

Global Warning¹⁵

Age: 3| Weight: 8-6| J: David Egan| T: E A L Dunlop| OR: 86

10/1

Off the mark in good style on handicap debut at Newcastle last month. The form has not been done any favours since though and 9lb rise leaves him needing more.

Form: 32-31

(2)

Alkaamel¹⁶

Age: 3| Weight: 8-6| J: Chris Hayes| T: W J Haggas| OR: 86| BF| D

8/1

Has gone from strength to strength since being stepped up in trip and switched to handicap company. May just be in the handicappers grip for now but capable of running well again.

Form: 6-11122

(1)

Brian Epstein¹⁷

Age: 3| Weight: 8-4| J: M Dwyer| T: R Hannon| OR: 84| D

8/1

A winner on his third start and respectable effort over C&D when fifth of 14 last month on seasonal return. More needed but could come on for the run.

Form: 541-5

(10)

Fox Leicester⁸

Age: 3| Weight: 8-2| J: S De Sousa| T: A M Balding| OR: 81| BF| D

15/8

Improved towards the back end of last year and resumed progress when winning at Chelmsford in March. Fourth at Sandown last week needs improving on but his yard are going well and hard to completely rule out, despite being 1lb out the handicap.

Form: 532-14

Forecasts

Fox Leicester (15/8), Leroy Leroy (13/2), Alkaamel (8/1), Brian Epstein (8/1), Victory Command (9/1), Certain Lad (10/1), Global Warning (10/1), Blonde Warrior (12/1), Pogo (14/1), Mordred (16/1)

A tricky race to finish day one of the Guineas meeting. Alkaamel has been mightily consistent and while he's found one too good on each of his last two starts, he can be expected to run well again with trainer William Haggas capable of eking out more improvement from him. Mordred may come on for his reappearance and ran well here last season but preference is for POGO who shaped well on his return at Newcastle recently.