14:15 Chepstow

Friday 3 May 2019

All13:4514:1514:4515:1515:5016:2517:00

Pete Smith Specialist Cars Coleford Novice Stakes

Off time: 14:18 | Winning time: 2m 5.34s

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Selected odds by:

(1)

Bambys Boy⁴⁶²

Age: 8| Weight: 10-0| J: L P Keniry| T: N P Mulholland

40/1

Impressive bumper winner in 2015 but has proved difficult to train since and last effort was disappointing. Makes Flat debut against horses from some big yards and he has plenty to prove.

Form:

(13)

Flying Tiger⁶²

Age: 6| Weight: 10-0| J: Tom Marquand| T: Nick Williams

7/1

2017 Cheltenham Festival winner but things rarely gone to plan since. Sole Flat run came in 2017 when a creditable fifth in the Cumberland Lodge. Would be hard to beat if he could be relied upon to match the performance.

Form: 5/

(4)

Indian Harbour²¹

Age: 6| Weight: 10-0| J: F Sweeney| T: Mrs S Gardner

66/1

In poor form over hurdles lately and it would be a major shock if he followed up the yard's success in this last year.

Form:

(14)

Dancing Lilly

Age: 4| Weight: 9-9| J: Racheal Kneller⁽⁵⁾| T: Mat Salaman

50/1

Sir Percy half-sister to a Fibresand winner at around a mile. Yard not readily associated with debut winners and others look more likely.

Form:

(2)

Manorah¹⁵⁵

Age: 3| Weight: 9-1| J: L Morris| T: R Varian

8/1

Form of her Kempton victory has not worked out well but she was entered for a Classic trial on Saturday so there is every chance she is better than the form indicates. Stable in excellent form, particularly with their three-year-olds.

Form: 41-

(8)

Admirals Bay¹⁴²

Age: 3| Weight: 8-13| J: Rob Hornby| T: A M Balding

16/1

Mount Nelson colt out of a Shamardal mare who was down the field on debut. Will have learnt a lot but stable may have better options in his.

Form: 0-

(12)

Baasem¹⁷⁷

Age: 3| Weight: 8-13| J: Dane O'Neill| T: Owen Burrows

3/1

Related to several winners but it remains to be seen whether it was greenness or attitude that saw him misbehave last year. Has been gelded during the winter and could now prove better than he has shown.

Form: 74-

(3)

Culture¹⁸¹

Age: 3| Weight: 8-13| J: Nicola Currie| T: George Baker

50/1

€80,000 yearling by Dream Ahead who left Sandown debut behind when a fair third at Amiens in France in November. That wouldn't leave him far behind on form but soft ground may be a key.

Form: 03-

(15)

Global Falcon²⁵

Age: 3| Weight: 8-13| J: Callum Shepherd| T: C Hills

12/1

Cost 115,000gns as a yearling and was running on well when squeezed for room over a mile at Kempton in March. Looked in trouble from an early stage on turf debut a month later and he is hard to evaluate after that effort.

Form: 45

(16)

Maiden Castle¹⁴²

Age: 3| Weight: 8-13| J: Hayley Turner| T: H Candy

11/2

Gelded son of Nayef from a good family the trainer knows well. Showed clear promise on debut and the market will tell us how well he has done since as he does need to improve a fair deal.

Form: 4-

(11)

Sherwood Forrester

Age: 3| Weight: 8-13| J: Megan Nicholls⁽³⁾| T: Paul George

66/1

Gelded newcomer by Nayef out of a 7f winner and related to 7f AW winner Chosen World. Probably best watched on debut over a trip he is not bred to stay.

Form:

(10)

Wedding Blue¹⁸⁴

Age: 3| Weight: 8-13| J: David Probert| T: A M Balding

5/2

Kingman half-brother to a Group 2 winner who was best at around 6f-7f. Improved from his debut to finish second at Nottingham, but he was flattered. He looks a middle-distance horse despite his pedigree and his yard are in good form.

Form: 82-

(5)

Aloe Vera

Age: 3| Weight: 8-8| J: Josephine Gordon| T: R M Beckett

8/1

Invincible Spirit filly related to Group winners Alyssa and Alea Iacta. Yard are beginning to fire so one to note in the market for a race that is less competitive than it looks. Stable 10-31 here with three-year-olds since 2014.

Form:

(7)

Miss Harriett

Age: 3| Weight: 8-8| J: William Cox⁽³⁾| T: W S Kittow

100/1

Arvico filly out of a winning point-to-pointer who was paced over middle-distances on the Flat. Does not stand out on pedigree and others preferred.

Form:

(9)

Storm Eleanor

Age: 3| Weight: 8-8| J: J F Egan| T: H Morrison

50/1

Unraced Mukhadram filly out of a German mare who was placed in Group company and stayed 1m3f. Stable have had some success with their three-year-olds this year so worth noting if attracting support.

Form:

(6)

Vakilita¹⁸¹

Age: 3| Weight: 8-8| J: M Dwyer| T: A M Balding

33/1

Iffraaj filly with middle-distance bloodlines on the dam's side. The market anticipated better on her Newmarket debut but she finished well adrift in the Newmarket mud. One of three entries for her in form yard.

Form: 8-

Forecasts

Wedding Blue (5/2), Baasem (3/1), Maiden Castle (11/2), Flying Tiger (7/1), Aloe Vera (8/1), Manorah (8/1), Global Falcon (12/1), Admirals Bay (16/1), Vakilita (33/1), Bambys Boy (40/1), Culture (50/1), Storm Eleanor (50/1), Dancing Lilly (50/1), Sherwood Forrester (66/1), Indian Harbour (66/1), Miss Harriett (100/1)

Aloe Vera represents good bloodlines and a yard with an excellent record here. This may be less competitive than it looks and she may be good enough to win on debut, given doubts about the value of Manorah's Kempton victory and whether Flying Tiger is as good as he was. Baasem looks the type who will improve for being gelded and Maiden Castle caught the eye on his debut, but Andrew Balding saddles three with WEDDING BLUE looking their main hope. The Kingman colt is bred to be suited by shorter but looked a middle-distance horse in the making when staying on well last time and his yard have had an excellent year with his age group.