15:15 Kempton

Saturday 30 March 2019

All13:3514:0514:4015:1515:5016:2517:00

Matchbook Betting Podcast Rosebery Handicap

Off time: 15:17 | Winning time: 2m 15.65s

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Selected odds by:

(3)

Count Calabash⁴²

Age: 5| Weight: 9-10| J: Charles Bishop| T: Eve Johnson Houghton| OR: 102| CD

3/1

Scored for the second time at this venue when making all to beat Caspar The Cub 6L last month. More to do off 5lb higher mark, but may still be on the upgrade.

Form: 1102-51

(14)

Island Brave¹⁹⁷

Age: 5| Weight: 9-8| J: David Egan| T: H Main| OR: 100

50/1

Stays well as he proved when scoring over 1m6f at Nottingham in August. May have been over the top for the season when last of 14 at Doncaster in September, but will enjoy this return to the AW even though wide draw and shorter trip make life tough.

Form: 155810-

(9)

Fire Fighting⁸

Age: 8| Weight: 9-7| J: J Fanning| T: C & M Johnston| OR: 99| C| D

20/1

Tough campaigner who continues to give his best and ran his usual solid race when fairly close second at Lingfield last time. Holds no secrets from the handicapper, but looks likely to be on the premises again.

Form: 7010-32

(4)

Kelly's Dino^p²⁶

Age: 6| Weight: 9-5| J: B A Curtis| T: K R Burke| OR: 97| D

6/1

Runner-up in this contest last year off 15b lower mark. Progressed from that run in subsequent outings and made satisfactory reappearance when chasing home an improving type at Wolverhampton earlier this month.

Form: 18213-2

(13)

Cosmeapolitan³⁵

Age: 6| Weight: 9-4| J: David Probert| T: A King| OR: 96| CD

16/1

Beat stable companion Caspar The Cub at Lingfield in December and has been placed off higher marks in two runs since. Not out of it, but handicap mark provides little wriggle room.

Form: 4431-23

(8)

Alternative Fact¹⁶⁸

Age: 4| Weight: 9-3| J: G Mosse| T: E A L Dunlop| OR: 95

25/1

Has some decent turf form to his credit, but was well held on last start at York in October. Seasonal reappearance and AW debut after being gelded so hard to know what to expect.

Form: 852549-

(16)

Caspar The Cub^p⁴²

Age: 4| Weight: 9-2| J: Nicola Currie| T: A King| OR: 94| BF| CD

11/1

Won four successive races at this venue from October to December, but was hit by the handicapper and has had to settle for placings in three subsequent outings. Higher mark and widest draw make life tough.

Form: 1112-32

(2)

Desert Wind²⁶⁰

Age: 4| Weight: 9-1| J: S Donohoe| T: E F Vaughan| OR: 93

5/1

Three AW wins in a row at the beginning of last year and ran well on turf in the summer. First run since July, but has few miles on the clock and looks a contender if returning in peak form.

Form: 111244-

(6)

Nayel^p²⁴⁵

Age: 7| Weight: 9-1| J: Rossa Ryan| T: R Hannon| OR: 93

50/1

Back-to-back wins on turf last May, but form tailed off after those successes. Returns from a break for his AW debut and has gone well fresh in the past.

Form: 9/11065-

(11)

Pipes Of Peace^t⁴²

Age: 5| Weight: 9-0| J: T P Queally| T: S Durack| OR: 92| CD

33/1

Formerly trained by Aidan O'Brien and has run six times at this venue, winning once, since joining current handler. Quite exposed and is vulnerable to a few of his rivals.

Form: 23143-4

(7)

Manjaam¹⁹¹

Age: 6| Weight: 8-13| J: R Kingscote| T: Ian Williams| OR: 91

25/1

Won five times, including twice on the AW, when trained by Ed Dunlop. First outing for a stable which does well with its purchases from other yards so he is one to keep an eye on in the betting on first outing since September.

Form: 065054-

(10)

Lexington Law^p²⁶

Age: 6| Weight: 8-12| J: K T O'Neill| T: A King| OR: 90| CD

33/1

Third runner from the Alan King stable. Has ground to make up on Kelly's Dino on Wolverhampton running, but has a C&D success on his CV so is not without hope.

Form: 581-365

(12)

Star Of Southwold⁴³

Age: 4| Weight: 8-9| J: S M Levey| T: M Appleby| OR: 87| BF

25/1

Chelmsford winner in January and placed in two handicaps since that success. Up in the weights and needs to find extra if he is to get involved in a better race.

Form: 732-122

(1)

Forbidden Planet³⁷

Age: 4| Weight: 8-8| J: Jason Watson| T: H & R Charlton| OR: 86| BF

4/1

Won his first two races for this trainer after leaving Dominic Ffrench Davis's yard, but was turned over at odds-on in a 1m2f four-runner contest at Chelmsford last month. Every chance he can bounce back over this longer trip.

Form: 852-112

(15)

Soto Sizzler¹⁶⁹

Age: 4| Weight: 8-6| J: L Morris| T: W J Knight| OR: 84

20/1

Lightly-raced sort who won on turf at Goodwood in August. AW debut after a break and is probably best watched as he attempts to overcome a wide draw.

Form: 523168-

(5)

Dommersen²¹

Age: 6| Weight: 8-5| J: Paula Muir⁽⁵⁾| T: R Fell & S Murray| OR: 83| BF| C

20/1

Strong traveller who scored over 1m2f at Chelmsford in January. Has run with credit off higher ratings since that victory, but is quite exposed and will be doing well to land a prize of this nature.

Form: 222123

Forecasts

Count Calabash (3/1), Forbidden Planet (4/1), Desert Wind (5/1), Kelly's Dino (6/1), Caspar The Cub (11/1), Cosmeapolitan (16/1), Soto Sizzler (20/1), Dommersen (20/1), Fire Fighting (20/1), Manjaam (25/1), Alternative Fact (25/1), Star Of Southwold (25/1), Pipes Of Peace (33/1), Lexington Law (33/1), Island Brave (50/1), Nayel (50/1)

A competitive renewal of this valuable handicap. Top-weight Count Calabash is in peak form and should go well along with Forbidden Planet and the returning Desert Wind. Manjaam is interesting on his stable debut and Cosmeapolitan looks the best of his yard's three runners, but the vote goes to last year's runner-up KELLY'S DINO, who made a pleasing seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton and will handle the demands of this contest.