16:45 Ayr

Thursday 11 October 2018

All13:3514:0514:3515:1015:4016:1016:4517:15

Racegoers Club 50th Anniversary Handicap

Off time: 16:46 | Winning time: 1m 36.07s

Settings

Selected odds by:

(6)

Sans Souci Bay^b¹¹

Age: 4| Weight: 9-6| J: Theodore Ladd⁽⁵⁾| T: S Dixon| OR: 74| D

10/1

1lb lower than when last winning at Chester in the summer (7f, good). Acts on slow ground. Not always consistent, as shown last time, but should appreciate this drop in grade and very interesting if at anything like his best.

Form: 680540

(9)

Kyllachy Dragon^h⁹

Age: 3| Weight: 9-5| J: Jamie Gormley⁽³⁾| T: I Jardine| OR: 75

9/1

0-10, but in the frame several times and now stepped up to this trip for the first time. Acts on soft ground. His spring form would give him claims from this mark if able to get back to it.

Form: 324535

(10)

Ballymount¹⁶

Age: 3| Weight: 9-5| J: Cam Hardie| T: M & D Easterby| OR: 75| D

50/1

Acts on soft and has won over this trip. Has dropped 9lb in two starts for this trainer and looks to be on a feasible mark again. Could go well.

Form: 7-70899

(8)

Glen Moss¹⁴

Age: 9| Weight: 9-4| J: T Hamilton| T: R Fell & S Murray| OR: 72| D

7/1

Without a win since summer 2016 and no longer appears to hold the sort of ability that saw him take a conditions event when rated 102 that day. Hoewever, handicapper giving him a chance at this level. Acts on soft. Not ruled out.

Form: 00/0040

(3)

Yorbelucky¹³

Age: 3| Weight: 9-4| J: P Hanagan| T: P D Evans| OR: 74| D

14/1

Scored over 7½f (heavy) at Ffos Las last year in novice company. Best handicap effort was back over that C&D from 2lb higher in August. Well held over 1m2½f last time, but unexposed and interesting back over this trip.

Form: 931-430

(5)

Kupa River^h¹⁶

Age: 4| Weight: 9-4| J: C J McGovern⁽³⁾| T: R Fell & S Murray| OR: 72

12/1

Heady ground Listowel maiden winner over 1m last year. Has been tried at several trips by this trainer this year, but plenty to prove on the evidence of his last run over a similar distance at Beverley.

Form: 029790

(14)

Pomme De Terre⁹

Age: 6| Weight: 9-2| J: Paula Muir⁽⁵⁾| T: M Dods| OR: 70

33/1

All there of his wins have been over 6f, including on soft, but losing run now at 21. Went very close from this mark at York in June, but form has tailed off since. Claims on his day, but hard to be confident, especially over this far.

Form: 502540

(2)

Desert Dream^t¹⁶

Age: 4| Weight: 9-2| J: Nathan Evans| T: M & D Easterby| OR: 70| D

18/1

1m winner for Sir Michael Stoute and added to that for this trainer two starts ago at Carlisle over 7f (soft), when 3lb lower. Thrashed from this mark last time (poor draw) and not easy to predict him.

Form: 460919

(1)

Jay Kay^h²¹

Age: 9| Weight: 9-0| J: B A Curtis| T: K R Burke| OR: 68| CD

6/1

Loves it here and on testing ground. Won a 0-85 here over 1m this time last year, when 8lb higher. Well held in recent outings, including back here. Will want a truly run contest and if he gets that he is hard to rule out.

Form: 8-70500

(4)

Havana Go⁹

Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| J: G Lee| T: K Dalgleish| OR: 70

10/1

Took a step back in the right direction on debut for this trainer here over 6f (good to soft) last week. Same mark here and is very interesting now stepped back up to 7f.

Form: 4-3304

(7)

Mischief Managed^e/s¹⁶

Age: 4| Weight: 8-13| J: D Fentiman| T: T D Easterby| OR: 67| CD

11/2

Sole turf win came over C&D (good to firm) in May, when 6lb lower. Has been largely consistent since then, including when beaten under 1L at Beverley last time (career-best) from this mark. Bit more needed, but has claims.

Form: 322532

(12)

Reinforced^p,t⁴²

Age: 5| Weight: 8-12| J: A Mullen| T: M Dods| OR: 66| CD

9/2

All wins have been over this trip, including two on soft, though he remains 2lb higher than the best of those. Bit more needed then, but should be very competitive at a track where he is proven.

Form: 4-03144

(11)

Inglorious^b1²¹

Age: 4| Weight: 8-11| J: Jason Hart| T: K Dalgleish| OR: 65| CD

8/1

C&D (good) scorer last year and won over this trip on soft at Musselburgh a year ago. Went close from 2lb lower at Carlisle two starts back, which was comfortably his best run this season. Blinkers on to try eek out that bit more that is required.

Form: 834325

(13)

Royal Duchess⁶¹

Age: 8| Weight: 8-11| J: Connor Murtagh⁽⁵⁾| T: Mrs L B Normile| OR: 65| CD

25/1

Has recorded all four career wins over C&D, two of them on soft, though none since 2016 when she was 5lb higher. Has shown herself to be competitive from this mark here this season, but needs to bounce back after a poor run last time.

Form: 47-7226

Forecasts

Reinforced (9/2), Mischief Managed (11/2), Jay Kay (6/1), Glen Moss (7/1), Inglorious (8/1), Kyllachy Dragon (9/1), Havana Go (10/1), Sans Souci Bay (10/1), Kupa River (12/1), Yorbelucky (14/1), Desert Dream (18/1), Royal Duchess (25/1), Pomme De Terre (33/1), Ballymount (50/1)

An open heat where several have claims, but are also hard to predict. Under that banner are Sans Souci Bay, Desert Dream and Royal Duchess. Inglorious, Mischief Managed and Reinforced are all on the radar, as is course-lover Jay Kay. However, two unexposed runners also make appeal in Havana Go and YORBELUCKY, and the latter just gets the nod now returning to this trip.