14:05 Haydock

Friday 28 September 2018

All13:3514:0514:4015:1515:5016:2516:5517:25

JW Lees MPA Handicap (Div 2)

Off time: 14:06 | Winning time: 2m 34.7s

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Selected odds by:

(6)

Maroc^p³⁰

Age: 5| Weight: 9-12| J: T E Whelan| T: Mrs N S Evans| OR: 70

20/1

Broke his duck at the 29th attempt at Lingfield (1m2f, soft) last month. Sees out 1m3½f. 3lb rise looks fair, and while he is not ruled out, his profile suggests that the nudge upwards might just be too much for him.

Form: 525221

(12)

Brancaster²²

Age: 4| Weight: 9-9| J: Jason Watson⁽³⁾| T: D R C Elsworth| OR: 67| CD

7/2

Improved when stepped back up in trip here last time, beating Careyanne (runs in 1.35) by just over 1L. Up 7lb for that, which will make this significantly tougher. Improvement needed.

Form: 677671

(8)

Flood Defence¹⁵

Age: 4| Weight: 9-8| J: Jamie Gormley⁽³⁾| T: I Jardine| OR: 66

9/1

Soft ground winner who showed last time that she stays 1m3f on soft, when narrowly beaten at Hamilton from this mark. Shapes as though she will get this extra furlong. Consistency not a strong suit, but enters calculations.

Form: 419-883

(7)

Eden Rose⁷⁶

Age: 3| Weight: 9-7| J: G Lee| T: M R Channon| OR: 72

8/1

0-6 so far, but best effort came over 1m4f on good to soft at Leicester in May, which is encouraging, especially as it was from this mark. Held both times since, from 2lb higher and on fast ground, so no surprise if she bounces back now.

Form: 0-65234

(4)

Bluff Crag²⁷

Age: 5| Weight: 9-6| J: D Tudhope| T: P J McBride| OR: 64

12/1

Acts on soft ground and has earned both his wins from higher marks. Stays 1m4f, but recent efforts leave him a bit to prove.

Form: 536596

(11)

Crimson Skies^p²²

Age: 3| Weight: 9-5| J: R Kingscote| T: Tom Dascombe| OR: 70

5/1

Career-best effort here last time, when a short-head second (good to soft), from 1lb lower. Not the best of draws, but no one rides this track better than he pilot, so she could still make a big impact.

Form: 7-57642

(13)

Fisher Green³⁹

Age: 5| Weight: 9-5| J: D Nolan| T: R Fell & S Murray| OR: 63

14/1

Sole win was on debut (7f, soft) at Doncaster, in 2016. Inconsistent this season, but can be given a chance from this mark based on his best form. Acts on soft and stays 1m4f.

Form: 8/50346

(1)

Famous Dynasty¹⁶

Age: 4| Weight: 9-4| J: Rob Hornby| T: M Blanshard| OR: 62| D

14/1

Scored over 1m3½f (soft) at Lingfield last month, when 3lb lower. Dipped below that career-best back on AW last time, but soft ground probably the key to him. Gets that here and should go well.

Form: 525517

(9)

Nafaayes³⁵

Age: 4| Weight: 9-3| J: J Fanning| T: Jean-Rene Auvray| OR: 61

10/1

Yet to make the frame from seven starts. Well held from this mark at Ffos Las last time. Can only watch.

Form: 496045

(10)

Place Des Vosges³⁵

Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| J: Rossa Ryan⁽³⁾| T: D Menuisier| OR: 65

14/1

Best effort was on good to soft at Salisbury (1m4f) in May, when on this mark. Form has tailed off in three runs since then (all at around 1m6f). Drop in trip and soft ground may help. Revival not ruled out.

Form: 352350

(2)

Reactive¹⁶

Age: 3| Weight: 8-13| J: F Norton| T: J G Given| OR: 64

11/2

Stays at least 1m4f and ran well over further on heavy at Carlisle last time. 1lb drop here. Still early days, but more needed.

Form: 50253

(5)

Toronto Sound¹⁶

Age: 4| Weight: 8-12| J: J Mitchell| T: K Frost| OR: 53

66/1

Showed only minor promise on his fourth and final start last year for Sir Mark Prescott. Well below that on stable debut at Carlisle recently (1m6f, heavy). 3lb 'wrong' and can only watch.

Form: 6083-0

(3)

Muraaqeb^p1¹⁵

Age: 4| Weight: 8-12| J: K T O'Neill| T: J M Bradley| OR: 45

100/1

0-6 and well beaten all starts. Readily opposed.

Form: 600006

Forecasts

Brancaster (7/2), Crimson Skies (5/1), Reactive (11/2), Eden Rose (8/1), Flood Defence (9/1), Nafaayes (10/1), Bluff Crag (12/1), Famous Dynasty (14/1), Place Des Vosges (14/1), Fisher Green (14/1), Maroc (20/1), Toronto Sound (66/1), Muraaqeb (100/1)

Several in with chances and despite not having the best of draws, it could be worth siding with CRIMSON SKIES, who ran well here last time and who has arguably the jockey that rides this track best on board. Eden Rose and Place Des Vosges both have claims if producing their best, while Famous Dynasty is another to consider. Maroc, Brancaster and Flood Defence all need to find more, but are not ruled out.