17:15 Laytown

Thursday 6 September 2018

All15:4516:1516:4517:1517:4518:15

Hibernia Steel (Q.R.) Race

Off time: 17:15 | Winning time: 1m 22.54s

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Selected odds by:

(7)

Alfirak²¹

Age: 4| Weight: 12-0| J: Mr P W Mullins| T: D English| OR: 62

11/2

Short-head winner of a 1m handicap at Dundalk in April, and ran well back from a break at Bellewstown in July (runner-up); held valid excuses since (trip/ground), and this race looks to be more suitable.

Form: 124007

(2)

Flowerhill Nova³¹

Age: 5| Weight: 12-0| J: Mr R P Quinlan⁽³⁾| T: A Slattery| OR: 62

8/1

Largely reliable throughout the summer of 2016, and was a winner at Dundalk (6f) in September of that year; very moderate since, falling 20lb in the weights and is therefore difficult to enthuse over at present.

Form: 088900

(1)

Muroor¹⁰

Age: 5| Weight: 12-0| J: Mr J C Barry⁽⁵⁾| T: T G McCourt| OR: 51

16/1

No Flat win since his days with David O'Meara (1m2f, Leicester seller); shown his well-being over hurdles lately, making amends for his earlier disqualification by winning at Downpatrick (2m3f) last week; faces a vastly different test today over 7f.

Form: 570-474

(9)

Waqaas¹¹⁸

Age: 4| Weight: 12-0| J: Ms L O'Neill⁽³⁾| T: J A Osborne| OR: 90

5/4

By far the top-rated horse in this race (rated 90); left Charles Hills for 30,000 gns in July having made just a single start since finishing third at Ascot (6f) in October 2017; stamina to prove on first attempt at 7f.

Form: 14/053-0

(4)

Saint Irini²¹

Age: 4| Weight: 11-9| J: Mr D G Lavery⁽³⁾| T: E D Delany| OR: 48

33/1

Won just once in 18 starts in the French Provinces (AW) back in November 2016, and shouldn't be at all competitive at these weights given her lowly official rating.

Form: 00-6570

(6)

Flattothemat^t³⁶⁴

Age: 6| Weight: 11-7| J: Mr F Maguire⁽³⁾| T: S J Mahon| OR: 53

20/1

Ten race maiden; absent since competing over hurdles for Kieran Purcell at Clonmel in September 2017; likely outsider on first start for new connections and makes no appeal in the slightest.

Form: 5/00670-

(3)

Not Now Bernard⁸

Age: 6| Weight: 11-7| J: R Deegan⁽⁵⁾| T: G B Caldwell| OR: 40

66/1

Has scarcely beaten a rival in four starts so far (7f-1m1½f), and an official rating of 40 looks about accurate (even possibly generous); no chance at these weights based on that form.

Form: 0-000

(5)

Royal Admiral²²

Age: 4| Weight: 11-7| J: Mr J J Codd| T: A McGuinness| OR: 61| BF

11/4

Took time to learn his trade in maidens, but with that experience under his belt has progressed in handicap company with placed efforts at Tipperary (7½f) and Gowran Park (9½f); unexposed, and open to further improvement on sand debut.

Form: 55523

(8)

Mzuri²

Age: 6| Weight: 11-2| J: Mr M J O'Hare⁽³⁾| T: A McGuinness| OR: 46

12/1

38-race maiden who finished 5½L third to Tom Dooley in the 7f claimer on this card in 2017, and has boxed about the fringes of the frame in low grade 1m2f-1m4f handicaps of late; not today on these terms.

Form: 450044

Forecasts

Waqaas (5/4), Royal Admiral (11/4), Alfirak (11/2), Flowerhill Nova (8/1), Mzuri (12/1), Muroor (16/1), Flattothemat (20/1), Saint Irini (33/1), Not Now Bernard (66/1)

Waqaas is head and shoulders above these rivals on official ratings, and has probably been laid out for this race by Jamie Osborne since arriving from Charles Hills for 30,000 gns in July. However, he'll be well found in the market with the excellent Lisa O'Neill on top and there are a few potential flaws-notably his effectiveness over 7f, and lack of racing over the past 12 months. Alfirak is a possible threat, but the unexposed, lightly-raced ROYAL ADMIRAL is more likely. Adrian McGuinness saddled Rivellino to score on this card in 2017, so knows what is takes to prepare a horse for this surface, and his 4yo gelding remains firmly on the upgrade.