20:25 Cheltenham

Friday 4 May 2018

All16:5517:3018:0518:4019:1519:5020:25

GX Landrover Open Hunters' Chase

Off time: 20:28 | Winning time: 5m 12.5s

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Selected odds by:

Forever My Friend^b²⁵

Age: 11| Weight: 12-2| J: Mr Peter Bryan⁽⁵⁾| T: M Bowen| OR: 124| D

50/1

Well-beaten at Ludlow last time behind Full Trottle on hunter chase debut. Should come on for the run but difficult to see him reversing the 128L deficit between him and the reopposing winner.

Form: 314356-

Full Trottle^t²⁵

Age: 9| Weight: 12-2| J: Mr S Lee⁽⁷⁾| T: Miss L Thomas| OR: 126| CD

4/1

Second run after a wind operation for this individual, who likes this trip and won well at Ludlow last time out. Should go close again.

Form: 1/12241-

Kilfinichen Bay⁴⁰

Age: 10| Weight: 12-2| J: Jordan Nailor⁽⁵⁾| T: F Hutsby| OR: 114

33/1

Fourth on his last four starts, including twice in hunter chases, and should go fairly well again here perhaps without challenging the leading contenders.

Form: 064444-

Mr Mercurial^t¹⁰

Age: 10| Weight: 12-2| J: Mr H Crow⁽⁷⁾| T: Mrs S Crow| OR: 120| C| D

11/2

Hat-trick seeker whose previous two wins both came at Ludlow, though it's more likely to be his big weight than the different type of track that catches him out here.

Form: 8U/P311-

Bear's Affair²²

Age: 12| Weight: 11-13| J: Alex Edwards| T: P Rowley| OR: 128| D

5/1

Excellent second in the Aintree Foxhunters' last time out. This is clearly a totally different task, back over regulation fences on a sounder surface, but he should still run well.

Form: 1/F6132-

Lined With Silver¹⁷⁵

Age: 9| Weight: 11-13| J: Mr James Jeavons⁽⁷⁾| T: Miss Hannah Taylor| OR: 87

100/1

Record under rules generally poor despite one win, and he makes very little appeal having his first start for a new trainer.

Form: 1P3P25-

Numbercruncher²⁵

Age: 12| Weight: 11-13| J: Mr David O'Brien⁽⁷⁾| T: David O'Brien| OR: 105

40/1

Still in with a chance when unseating his rider four fences from home in a Ludlow race last time out won by Full Trottle. Not ruled out from running well if keeping the partnership intact this time.

Form: P31P2U-

Salubrious²⁶

Age: 11| Weight: 11-13| J: Lorcan Williams⁽³⁾| T: Miss C Roddick| OR: 131| CD

7/2

Grade 1 hurdle runner-up when trained by Paul Nicholls who got off the mark in hunter chases in good style at the first time of asking at Exeter last time. Should improve and should go very well again.

Form: 16460/1-

Shotavodka¹⁴

Age: 12| Weight: 11-13| J: Hugh Nugent⁽³⁾| T: Miss H Brookshaw| OR: 126| D

9/2

Outclassed in the Cheltenham Foxhunters' but otherwise good form since switching to this sphere, including when going close at Southwell last time out.

Form: 36/1202-

Crazy Jack²⁵

Age: 10| Weight: 11-10| J: Mr G Crow⁽³⁾| T: Mrs A R Hewitt| OR: 99

50/1

Not too far behind Full Trottle at Ludlow last time but tough to see him reversing that form being given he's actually worse off at the weights here.

Form: 44/3743-

Creepy^p1³⁴

Age: 10| Weight: 11-10| J: Mrs C Hardwick⁽³⁾| T: Mrs Claire Hardwick| OR: 114| BF| CD

20/1

Some good form in point-to-points but only win over fences under rules came as a novice chaser. Liable to being outclassed in this company.

Form: 31442U-

Cyrien Star^b1¹⁹

Age: 11| Weight: 11-10| J: Miss Emma Yardley⁽⁷⁾| T: R Potter| OR: 110

66/1

Not a bad record in point-to-points when completing, but more often than not doesn't manage that (including multiple refusals), and this is a much tougher level of competition.

Form: 11/RPPP-

Distime^p1²²

Age: 12| Weight: 11-10| J: Mr William Biddick| T: Mrs D Ralph| OR: 117

18/1

Couldn't get involved in the Aintree Foxhunters' last time but fair form in point-to-points and this looks a more realistic level of competition for him.

Form: 43U/328-

Mitebeall Forluck^p¹³

Age: 10| Weight: 11-10| J: C Brace⁽⁷⁾| T: D Brace| OR: 114

50/1

Not as bad a record under rules as many of these but that was mostly in his younger days, and his more recent form leaves plenty to be desired.

Form: 82234P-

Ni Sin E Mo Ainm¹⁹

Age: 10| Weight: 11-10| J: Pte Alexandra Bell⁽⁷⁾| T: Miss A Bell| OR: 107| BF| D

50/1

Beaten at odds-on in a point-to-point last time and later disqualified, and neither of his runs in hunter chases so far would be enough for him to play a hand in this.

Form: U13/51D-

Red Inca^t⁶

Age: 10| Weight: 11-10| J: Mr S Burton⁽⁷⁾| T: Con Rutledge| OR: 101

100/1

Yet to win over fences (either under rules or point-to-point), and pulled-up on his last three starts; no surprise if that is the outcome again here.

Form: 2/P-PPPP

Silver Roque^p⁸⁴

Age: 12| Weight: 11-10| J: Bryan Carver⁽⁷⁾| T: Mary Vestey| OR: 125

25/1

Pulled-up on first start for almost a year in a hunter chase at Bangor last time out and tough to imagine him coming on for that enough to go close in this competitive affair.

Form: UP111/P-

Tinelyra¹⁹

Age: 12| Weight: 11-10| J: Mr M A S Comley⁽⁷⁾| T: A Campbell| OR: 66

100/1

No win since Towcester handicap chase in April 2014 (his only career victory) and very difficult to imagine that changing at this level of competition.

Form: 54PP42-

Maryam Jaan^t1²⁶

Age: 9| Weight: 11-3| J: Mr Bradley Gibbs⁽³⁾| T: K Jacka

100/1

1/16 in point-to-points and makes rules debut here. Makes no appeal with that track record in a competitive event, especially as she was pulled-up last time out.

Form: 2R4P/4P-

Forecasts

Salubrious (7/2), Full Trottle (4/1), Shotavodka (9/2), Bear's Affair (5/1), Mr Mercurial (11/2), Distime (18/1), Creepy (20/1), Silver Roque (25/1), Kilfinichen Bay (33/1), Numbercruncher (40/1), Crazy Jack (50/1), Mitebeall Forluck (50/1), Forever My Friend (50/1), Ni Sin E Mo Ainm (50/1), Cyrien Star (66/1), Lined With Silver (100/1), Tinelyra (100/1), Red Inca (100/1), Maryam Jaan (100/1)

A big field but not all that many have a genuinely realistic chance. The obvious one is SALUBRIOUS, runner-up at Grade 1 level for Paul Nicholls over hurdles and who ran away with his hunter chase debut at Exeter last time out, overcoming a lay-off in the process. He could easily improve on that effort and if doing so would surely go very close here despite it being a much tougher race. The main danger could be Full Trottle, who had a number of these in behind at Ludlow last time, while Shotavodka is another likely to go well.