13:00 Southwell

Monday 28 August 2017

All12:3013:0013:3014:0014:3515:1015:4516:15

nottinghampost.com Novice Stakes

Off time: 13:05 | Winning time: 59.7s

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Selected odds by:

(1)

Jim Rockford⁴⁴

Age: 2| Weight: 9-2| J: G Lee| T: R M Beckett| OR: 72| BF

13/8

Made favourite for a York nursery last time out but disappointed badly. Will find this much easier but like so many here, does need to show he goes on the surface. Yard have a good record here (23% strike rate last 5 years) which improves confidence

Form: 64527

(6)

Medici Oro⁴¹

Age: 2| Weight: 9-2| J: A Mullen| T: D H Brown| OR: 66

14/1

Form has taken a couple of backward steps since a promising enough debut at Hamilton and hard to predict how surface will suit (two of his relatives have tried, and performed poorly on it). On balance, others preferred.

Form: 376

(7)

Royal Diplomat²⁴

Age: 2| Weight: 9-2| J: J Garritty| T: R A Fahey| OR: 76

7/2

Very promising on debut at Naas (for Adrian Keightley) but form has gone the wrong way since then, Will find this easier than the Class 2 nursery he took in at Goodwood last time and pedigree offers hope for effectiveness on the surface.

Form: 2459

(3)

Skyva^h1⁸⁰

Age: 2| Weight: 9-2| J: Cam Hardie| T: B Ellison

9/1

Has run to a similar level on both starts to date, one which requires improvement here but pedigree offers plenty of hope that may happen today (related to Fibresand winners) and if the hood does the trick, he could get involved in the finish.

Form: 65

(4)

True North¹⁸

Age: 2| Weight: 9-2| J: S Donohoe| T: Sir Mark Prescott

33/1

Stone last on debut at Newcastle, finishing well tailed off, and like so many from the yard, simply looks to need plenty of time. One to watch once handicapped next year, but not for today.

Form: 0

(2)

Fab⁵⁶

Age: 2| Weight: 8-11| J: D C Costello| T: J A Osborne| OR: 77| BF

5/2

Has twice gone off favourite in her three starts but ran poorly on Wolverhampton's Tapeta surface. Better at Windsor last time but clearly has her quirks already and may not be one to fully trust.

Form: 275

(5)

Magic Buddy

Age: 2| Weight: 8-11| J: Shelley Birkett⁽³⁾| T: J R Jenkins

100/1

Unraced, and on the plus side is bred to go very well on this surface (plenty of Fibresand sprint winners in the family) but yard struggling for any sort of form and rarely have first time up winners. Best watched.

Form:

(8)

Mocead Cappall^h¹⁴

Age: 2| Weight: 8-11| J: R Ffrench| T: J R Holt| OR: 63

25/1

Not a bad effort at Nottingham on the middle of her three runs but disappointing either side of that. Pedigree not a bad one for Fibresand so may do better here, but in truth she needs to.

Form: 636

Forecasts

Jim Rockford (13/8), Fab (5/2), Royal Diplomat (7/2), Skyva (9/1), Medici Oro (14/1), Mocead Cappall (25/1), True North (33/1), Magic Buddy (100/1)

With so little form on the surface to go on, caution is advised. Ralph Beckett's strike rate here means that JIM ROCKFORD gets the vote. He's shown enough already to rank highly here and will appreciate this drop in class. Skyva needs to improve but is one of the more likely ones to enjoy the Fibresand surface and may well do so. Royal Diplomat can take the bronze.