15:00 Carlisle

Wednesday 5 April 2017

All14:0014:3015:0015:3516:0516:35

Pauline Phizacklea Memorial Novices' Hurdle

Off time: 15:00 | Winning time: 4m 21.2s

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Selected odds by:

Mr Big Shot⁷¹

Age: 6| Weight: 11-6| J: T Scudamore| T: D Pipe

1/8

Looked a nice prospect when landing his bumper last season and readily justified favouritism on debut over hurdles. The runner-up has won both starts since by wide margins. Looks a class above these rivals judged by that form.

Form:

Balthazar⁴⁸

Age: 5| Weight: 11-0| J: Adrian Lane| T: H Burns

200/1

Showed little in two Flat maidens and was soon struggling on his hurdling debut. Faces a difficult test at this level.

Form: /-

Cadellin²⁰

Age: 6| Weight: 11-0| J: W T Kennedy| T: D McCain Jnr

7/1

Has looked moderate in all starts to date. Tailed off in bad ground at Hexham last time and this is a stronger race.

Form: 5/7645-

Classical Milano¹¹⁵

Age: 6| Weight: 11-0| J: Jonathon Bewley⁽⁵⁾| T: G Bewley

40/1

Went through the sales ring for €120,000 as a three-year-old but was picked up by current connections for just £4,500 in January having showed little in three point-to-points.

Form: P/U4841-

Falcos¹⁵⁷

Age: 5| Weight: 11-0| J: Tony Kelly| T: R Menzies

7/1

Half-brother to a winner on the Flat in France. Picked up for €22,000 after finishing third in a weak race in France last October. Stable are 2-7 in last fortnight.

Form: 0P39-

Rising Marienbard^t¹⁵

Age: 5| Weight: 11-0| J: D R Fox| T: Miss Lucinda V Russell

16/1

Won a maiden point-to-point on debut last spring before changing hands for £30,000. Half-brother to triple winning staying chaser Maid In Moscow. Makes hurdling debut for a yard that have been going well. Nevertheless, the stable are just 2-59 with their hurdlers here in recent seasons.

Form: 10

Shepherd's Bight¹⁴⁵

Age: 5| Weight: 11-0| J: Jan Faltejsek| T: G A Charlton

80/1

€26,000 purchase in 2015. Half-brother to winning Irish hurdler King William. Tailed off last on bumper debut and looks the type to need more time.

Form: 03-

Sir Luke Arno¹⁴

Age: 6| Weight: 11-0| J: Daragh Bourke⁽⁵⁾| T: C N Kellett

200/1

Only beat one rival in two bumpers and pulled up on both starts over hurdles. Has little hope here based on those efforts.

Form: 80/P

Skipthescales⁴⁴

Age: 5| Weight: 11-0| J: Henry Brooke| T: M Todhunter

16/1

Well beaten behind a useful rival when fifth here on his rules debut in February. Had finished third in a decent looking Irish maiden point-to-point before that (second, sixth and ninth all won since) and every chance he'll improve on his last run here.

Form: 352

You'll Do^t1¹¹¹

Age: 4| Weight: 10-8| J: Dale Irving⁽⁵⁾| T: M A Barnes

50/1

Seven race maiden on the Flat. Worst performance came here on softish ground. Yard do well with their chasers here but are 0-31 with their hurdlers in the last five seasons.

Form:

Henpecked^p¹²

Age: 7| Weight: 10-7| J: Craig Nichol| T: A C Whillans

12/1

Winner of three races on the Flat and rated 70 in that sphere. Faced a stiff task on hurdling debut and faces another stiff test here should Mr Big Shot take his chance. Did not jump well at Kelso and ground may have been too testing.

Form: /547-

Forecasts

Mr Big Shot (1/8), Cadellin (7/1), Falcos (7/1), Henpecked (12/1), Skipthescales (16/1), Rising Marienbard (16/1), Classical Milano (40/1), You'll Do (50/1), Shepherd's Bight (80/1), Sir Luke Arno (200/1), Balthazar (200/1)

MR BIG SHOT has been found an easy opportunity to follow up his Wetherby success where he accounted for Cousin Oscar by a comfortable 8L. That horse has easily won both starts since and there is a lack of credible opposition to David Pipe's charge in this contest. Skipthescales caught the eye on his debut here in February and could be he one to make a race of it with the favourite. The rest make little appeal and Falcos may possess enough ability to make the frame.