13:30 Warwick

Saturday 11 February 2017

All13:3014:0514:4015:1515:5016:2516:55

racinguk.com Novices' Hurdle

Off time: 13:33 | Winning time: 5m 24.4s

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Selected odds by:

Aintree My Dream^t²¹

Age: 7| Weight: 11-10| J: Bridget Andrews⁽³⁾| T: D Skelton| OR: 129

1/1

Runaway winner of a similar race to this at Carlisle in October, and has since run well in a Group 3 contest. Must concede weight to most of these but is a leading contender once again.

Form:

Buster Thomas⁶³

Age: 6| Weight: 11-10| J: T Scudamore| T: Miss E C Lavelle

7/4

Won on hurdles debut at Lingfield (2m3f, good to soft) despite showing signs of greenness. Previously been placed in a point, so this slight step up in trip should suit. Possibly the horse with the most untapped potential in the field.

Form:

Barney Boy²²

Age: 9| Weight: 11-4| J: James Banks| T: N Lampard

200/1

Placed in a point but has shown next to nothing in two starts over hurdles so far and has been priced accordingly on each occasion. Looks set for a minor role again.

Form:

Billy Hicks³⁴

Age: 6| Weight: 11-4| J: L Treadwell| T: S Drinkwater

33/1

Well beaten in a Chepstow maiden hurdle at a lower level than this (2m, heavy). Ground/trip should suit better today, but will need to make all the difference.

Form:

Black Night⁹

Age: 5| Weight: 11-4| J: Richard Hodson⁽⁷⁾| T: James Moon

50/1

Recently switched to hurdles having finished out of the places in Group races on the Flat. Is entitled to come for his first run in this sphere when well beaten in the mud at Wincanton.

Form:

Caventara⁷³

Age: 5| Weight: 11-4| J: Lizzie Kelly⁽⁵⁾| T: Nick Williams

25/1

Showed little in a Ffos Las bumper in November and probably best watched today on his debut over hurdles.

Form:

Falcons Fall³⁴

Age: 6| Weight: 11-4| J: Jack Sherwood⁽³⁾| T: T Symonds

10/1

Struggled to get involved on any of his four starts so far, including two bumpers and two maiden/novice hurdles (including over C&D last April). Has a lot to find.

Form:

Glenforde³⁰⁰

Age: 6| Weight: 11-4| J: David Bass| T: K Bailey & M Nicholls

9/1

Placed in a point 300 days ago but off since then. That isn't bad form, but this is an altogether different task, even before the break is factored in to calculations.

Form:

Knight To Open²⁸

Age: 7| Weight: 11-4| J: Maurice Linehan⁽³⁾| T: B Pauling

50/1

Pulled up at 100/1 on hurdles debut at Kempton last month. Steps down in trip today but no indication that that will bring about the massive improvement needed.

Form:

Orchardstown Cross²⁸

Age: 6| Weight: 11-4| J: Alan Johns⁽³⁾| T: Tim Vaughan

20/1

Decent point performer who makes his debut under rules today on first run for this trainer. Yard isn't currently in great form which is a concern, but one of the more likely types among the newer faces.

Form:

Spirit Of Hale²⁵

Age: 6| Weight: 11-4| J: Brendan Powell| T: J Candlish

100/1

Hasn't impressed on any of his four starts over hurdles today, including when beaten 44 lengths at a lower level than this last time. Has it all to do.

Form:

Forecasts

Aintree My Dream (1/1), Buster Thomas (7/4), Glenforde (9/1), Falcons Fall (10/1), Orchardstown Cross (20/1), Caventara (25/1), Billy Hicks (33/1), Black Night (50/1), Knight To Open (50/1), Spirit Of Hale (100/1), Barney Boy (200/1)

To all intents and purposes, this looks to be between Buster Thomas and AINTREE MY DREAM. Their form is a fair bit better than anything else that runs here, and though they're penalised accordingly they should have no trouble seeing the rest off. Preference is for the Skelton-trained gelding owing to his decent performance in a Grade 2 two starts ago, but the first-named has already won at this level and should be capable of improving. Newcomer Orchardstown Cross has acquitted himself well in points and is taken to complete the tricast. 1. Aintree My Dream 2. Buster Thomas 3. Orchardstown Cross