Never been out of the first two in 11 chases, winning last year's Grade One Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at Sandown (2m 4f, good to soft) and finishing runner-up in the JLT at the Cheltenham Festival. After one or two frustrating performances from a punting perspective, he put up his best chasing display yet when spreadeagling a field in the Grade Two Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock last time. Having barely been in the Gold Cup picture, he has become a general 14/1 chance for the Blue Riband event and a win here would shorten those odds considerably. Small field and possible lack of a true-run race may work to his advantage.
Been a joy to follow the improvement of this gelding, who does things the hard way, usually racing prominently, which probably adds to his popularity. Grade One winner, who has landed both the Hennessy Gold Cup and Welsh National this season to become second favourite for the Gold Cup next month. Will probably need to try to dictate this and make it a real test if he is to have his best chance, but no reason why he can't do so.
Beat Bristol De Mai by seven lengths off level weights at Ayr in the spring when sporting first-time blinkers, while the form of his three-and-a-half length defeat to Many Clouds at Aintree in December (received 5lb) now reads very well. Has it to do against the other pair at these weights, especially with the emphasis likely to be placed on stamina, though it would not surprise if he finished closer than the ratings might have us believe.
Forecasts
Bristol De Mai (10/11), Native River (11/10), Le Mercurey (14/1)
The usual minimal turnout for this race, but nonetheless interesting for that and it really depends on the pace angle as to who has the strongest claim. Given that he is here and that he is said to need another race before the Gold Cup, it is likely that NATIVE RIVER will have plenty of use made of him as usual. If that is the case then he could ask too many questions of his opponents' stamina. However, if the gallop is not too searching then it could play into the hands of Bristol De Mai, who hammered his field at Haydock last time and did look visually very impressive. Le Mercurey is not dismissed out of hand given that some of his form is very smart.
1. Native River
2. Bristol De Mai
3. Le Mercurey