The Premier League returns this weekend, and so does Jake Osgathorpe's weekly best bets and Super 6 predictions column.
Jake's Predictions 24/25: P/L +75.06pts | ROI 13.3% | Staked 562.50pts | Returned 637.56pts
Football betting tips: Premier League
Monday - Leeds vs Everton - 20:00
1pt Anton Stach to be carded at 4/1 (bet365, Betfred)
1pt Ao Tanaka to be carded at 11/2 (BetVictor)
Leeds vs Everton
- Kick-off: Monday, 20:00 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
We could be in for a crazy card game on Monday night. Chris Kavanagh is the man in the middle, and he averaged 5.30 cards per game last season and 4.74 in all-Premier League affairs.
He also warmed up nicely with an eight card game in the Europa League on Thursday.
Leeds' transfer business suggests they are looking to come up to the top flight and be physical, and one of those new signings looks a cracking price TO BE CARDED here: ANTON STACH.
The 6ft 4in midfielder signed from Hoffenheim in the summer, where last season he was booked eight times at an average of 0.28 per 90. For good measure too, he was the only player booked in a recent friendly with Milan for 'a bad foul'.
Given he'll be one of three Leeds midfielders getting stuck into Everton new boy Jack Grealish (3.54 fouls won per 90 across last two seasons) and the tricky Iliman Ndiaye (1.92 fouls won per 90 last season), the 4/1 looks big, especially with the transition potential of the Toffees.
The 11/2 about his fellow midfielder AO TANAKA looks huge too, with the Japan international at his cynical best at Elland Road last season. Across his last 19 home league games he was booked six times at an average of 0.34 cards per 90.
He too could be dragged into the Grealish trap - who I expect to play centrally - and with a card-happy referee, I'll chance the pair at the prices available, with Ethan Ampadu a touch too short at 11/4 - the double is 22/1 (bet365) for those who fancy it.
Score prediction: Leeds 1-2 Everton ()
Odds correct at 1610 BST (15/08/25)
ALREADY ADVISED
Friday - Liverpool vs Bournemouth 20:00
1pt Alex Scott to be carded at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
Saturday - Aston Villa vs Newcastle 12:30
1.5pt Joelinton to be carded at 2/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
Saturday - Sunderland vs West Ham - 15:00
2pts Under 2.5 goals at 10/11 (General)
Saturday - Wolves vs Man City - 17:30
2.5pts Erling Haaland to score anytime at 5/6 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Erling Haaland to score 2+ goals at 4/1 (Paddy Power)
0.5pt Erling Haaland to score 3+ goals at 20/1 (Sky Bet)
Sunday - N Forest vs Brentford - 14:00
2pts Under 2.5 goals at 10/11 (General)
Sunday - Man Utd vs Arsenal - 16:30
1.5pts Declan Rice 2+ total shots at 23/20 (Betway)
1pt Declan Rice 1+ shot on target at 2/1 (bet365)
It's been a longer summer than usual without top tier domestic football, but we are thankfully back in action this weekend.
The Premier League returns with the usual amount of intrigue and anticipation after a big summer spending spree from clubs up and down the division.
We will hopefully see a much closer title race this time around after Liverpool cantered to victory, while we can also hope for one of the newly-promoted sides actually making a fist of things. I mean, it'd be great if one of them even got to 30 points...
Last season this column finished in healthy profit, and the dream would be to follow it up with another season in the green, and we will certainly try our best.
The opening weeks of the season are generally low-stake from me with so much uncertainty around players and teams, having said that I've found value in over half the games, so let's hope we can get off to a flier!
Liverpool vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off: Friday, 20:00 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
The season starts at Anfield, where the champions host a depleted Bournemouth. Liverpool are short favourites to win the game, and understandably so given the Cherries have lost four of their back five from last season.
On top of that, Andoni Iraola's side are without Lewis Cook, Enes Unal, Ryan Christie, Luis Sinisterra and Justin Kluivert through injury. They are light on numbers, but will continue to play in their front-foot, high-pressing style, making a lot of fouls in the process.
If anything they will be even more aggressive in a bid to slow their hosts down and protect a weakened defence, so I'll chance a player card to open the campaign, with ALEX SCOTT the bet TO BE CARDED at 9/4.
The Englishman was cautioned three times in limited minutes last season, an average of 0.36 cards per 90, and followed that into the summer's U21 Euros, being carded twice (0.51 per 90).
He's young, can be overzealous, and should start from the off given Bournemouth's selection issues. Averaging 2.04 fouls per 90 last term, he could have his name taken, especially as he'll be tasked with tracking Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai and new boy Florian Wirtz.
Our good friend Anthony Taylor is the man with the whistle which at first was a tad off-putting for a card bet, but the way in which he finished the season at the Club World Cup was emphatic, flashing seven, five and four - with the latter featuring two reds.
Score prediction: Liverpool 3-1 Bournemouth ()
Aston Villa vs Newcastle
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
Goal difference was the margin by which Newcastle qualified for the Champions League over Aston Villa, but given the off-field issues at St James' with the Alexander Isak situation, and the continuity at Villa, you'd have to lean towards the latter in a season-long match bet.
In terms of this game, a home win nearly made the staking plan at 13/10 (Ladbrokes) given how much of a fortress Villa Park has been under Unai Emery in the league (W32 D12 L7). They finished last term on a 21-game unbeaten run in all competitions at Villa Park too, winning 15 of those.
But I've instead opted for JOELINTON TO BE CARDED as the best bet. The Brazilian was carded 10 times in 29 league appearances last season (0.37 per 90) and six times in 20 the season prior (0.42 per 90), so is a bit of a magnet for yellows.
He was booked in both matches against Aston Villa last season, seemingly being caught out by the match-up against the top flight's best card (2.82 per game) and foul drawers (13.1).
The pleasing thing for this bet is that Joelinton started very fast in the card collection race, picking up four yellows in his first six games, before cooling off and controlling himself to avoid a early one-game suspension, picking up just one in the following 10.
He could start the campaign in reckless manner again, and with Craig Pawson on the whistle, his 2/1 price to be carded looks a cracker.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-0 Newcastle ()
Odds correct at 1510 BST (14/08/25)
Brighton vs Fulham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Brighton and Fulham are teams I struggled to get a handle on last season. The Seagulls struggled to put teams away when playing at the Amex, winning just eight of 19 last season, while the Cottagers had a solid record against last season's top eight, posting a W7 D2 L7 record.
It's a no bet here.
Score prediction: Brighton 2-1 Fulham ()
Odds correct at 1510 BST (14/08/25)
Sunderland vs West Ham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Sunderland make their return to the top flight with a winnable looking game against West Ham, but I think UNDER 2.5 GOALS is the bet at near even money.
The Black Cats will be wanting to keep things tight in this first game, and will fancy their chances of stifling a very ordinary Hammers attack.
11 of Graham Potter's first 16 league games as boss went under 2.5, which is no surprise given they averaged 1.06 xGF and 1.45 xGA per game, with that attacking figure only better than the three relegated sides.
Jarrod Bowen is their talisman, but other than him, it's hard to see where the chances and goals are coming from given Mohammed Kudus' departure and Callum Wilson's questionable injury record.
Defensively they will be tough to break down though and Sunderland's attacking options fail to inspire, so one goal could decide this.
Score prediction: Sunderland 1-1 West Ham ()
Odds correct at 1510 BST (14/08/25)
Tottenham vs Burnley
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Tottenham were back to being Spursy in midweek, leading 2-0 against PSG and in total control only to concede two very late goals and lose the UEFA Super Cup on penalties. The performance was good for the most part, but you have to see that game out.
They return to these shores to host newly promoted Burnley in a game that should be straightforward, as a win price of 2/5 suggests.
Thomas Frank's Brentford side were flat-track bullies against the newly promoted sides over the last few seasons, winning 10 of 12 matches and scoring a whopping 35 goals in the process, so if he carries that over to his new job then the Clarets could be in for a hiding.
But it's a watching brief for me, as we don't know how Spurs will shape up after their midweek exploits, and whether they'll have the guile to open up a very deep Burnley block, though both teams to score 'no' nearly made the plan (10/11).
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-0 Burnley ()
Odds correct at 1510 BST (14/08/25)
Wolves vs Manchester City
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
ERLING HAALAND is an extremely fast starter. The Norwegian simply loves this time of the season, where he is fit, fresh and raring to go.
Since arriving at Manchester City he has scored 19 times in 11 games during the month of August from an xG of 12.4, running at an eye-watering 1.86 goals per 90 and 1.23 xG per 90 in the first month of the campaign.
He's scored multiple goals in six of those 11 contests, netting a whopping five hat-tricks in August. He's scored in all three opening day outings for City too, which just so happen to have all been away from home, so backing him TO SCORE ANYTIME makes sense. Two of those openers have seen him net 2+ GOALS. We also have to chance him TO SCORE A HAT-TRICK just in case.
Haaland found the net in three of his Club World Cup starts as well as his sole run out in a friendly, so should get off the mark in this opener.
I'm intrigued to see what this City team look like, as at the CWC they were scintillating in attack, netting 16 goals in just four matches, and if that level of attacking intent continues, Haaland could make a mockery of his pre-season top scorer odds (6/4).
Vitor Pereira did steady the Wolves ship last season and pulled them to safety, but their backline continues to look vulnerable, conceding 1.45 xGA per game during his stint.
One to bear in mind should Haaland continue his trend is that he tends to go on a scoring streak at the start of the season before cooling. In 24/25 he scored in five straight matches (10 goals) to start the campaign, 23/24 saw him net in five of the first six (eight goals), and in 22/23 he bagged in eight of his first nine (15 goals).
That means 36%, 37% and 42% of his final goal tallies came in a red-hot start to the season, so history would suggest now is the time to get him onside.
Score prediction: Wolves 1-3 Manchester City ()
Chelsea vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Chelsea had a sensational summer, winning the Club World Cup, and have once again been busy in the transfer market. They mean business and it wouldn't be a surprise to see them mount a title challenge, but this has the potential to be an awkward opener.
Crystal Palace held the Blues 1-1 on both occasions they met last season and will have even more confidence they can mix it with the big boys after beating Manchester City to win the FA Cup and Liverpool on penalties to win the Community Shield.
I was close to pulling the trigger on another under 2.5 goals bet here (13/10), but it's a no bet. Chelsea's win price of 8/13 could look massive come Sunday night should they pick up from where they left off when thrashing PSG.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-0 Crystal Palace ()
Odds correct at 1145 BST (15/08/25)
Nottingham Forest vs Brentford
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
UNDER 2.5 GOALS looks a massive price in the game at the City Ground.
Both Nottingham Forest (Anthony Elanga) and Brentford (Bryan Mbeumo and likely Yoane Wissa) will be missing some attacking stars from last season, but both defences look very strong, Forest's in particular.
Last season Nuno Espirito Santo's men allowed just 1.05 xGA per game at home, the fifth best record in the league, and conceded the joint-fewest goals at home in the entire division (16).
That foundation resulted in 13 of their 19 home contests going Under 2.5 - a huge 68% strike rate that would imply odds of shorter than 1/2.
Keith Andrews is the new man in the dugout for the visiting Bees, and he'll be wanting to keep things tight in his opener. They did for the most part when travelling under Thomas Frank last season, with their games excluding the relegated trio averaging just 2.00 goals per game as they scored just 16 times in 16 outings.
More of the same should be expected, and while we can't read too much into friendlies, it's worth pointing out that Forest have played seven pre-season games and saw five goalless draws, with one other being a 1-0 game...
No goalscorer is a general 10/1 for those interested.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Brentford ()
Odds correct at 1130 BST (15/08/25)
Manchester United vs Arsenal
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:30 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
I'm really looking forward to this game. Let's hope it doesn't disappoint.
Both sides have been busy in the transfer market, but Arsenal look by far the most complete of the two teams and the price of an away win did initially look good at 6/5, they are now odds-on and that looks correct given how top-heavy Manchester United could line-up.
The bet for me here is one that I suggested for the This Week's Acca boosted BAB, but didn't make the cut for the final 20/1 shot (booo!), with DECLAN RICE 1+ SHOT ON TARGET far too big at 2/1.
Rice was given far more freedom last season and it resulted in his attacking output increasing. That will continue this season with the acquisition of Martin Zubimendi, so the Englishman will again be tasked with breaking into the final third.
The Gunners' record signing fired seven shots on target in his last 10 Premier League appearances last season, averaging 0.74 per 90, with this bet landing in six of those 10 - including in this fixture in March when he scored Arsenal's goal in a 1-1 draw.
We should see him continue to take, at least some of, Arsenal's direct free-kicks too following his wonderful brace of dead-ball strikes against Real Madrid, which helps this bet too.
At the prices, we also have to back RICE 2+ TOTAL SHOTS at 23/20, just in case he doesn't find the target. Across that last 10-game period, this bet landed eight times, with the former West Ham man averaging 2.12 shots per 90.
He's 7/1 to score anytime (Coral, Ladbrokes) for those who want to cover ALL the bases.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-2 Arsenal ()
Odds correct at 1400 BST (15/08/25)
Odds correct at 1510 BST (14/08/25)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Home of This Week's Acca
- Football and other sports tips
- Download the Sporting Life app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at and .
