Jake's Predictions 24/25: Staked 562.50pts | Returned 637.56pts | P/L +75.06pts | ROI 13.3%
Football betting tips: 25/26 outright
Premier League
5pts Aston Villa to finish top six at 6/4 (General)
1pt e.w. Dominic Solanke top scorer at 33/1 (General 1/4, 1,2,3,4)
0.5pt e.w. Rayan Ait Nouri top assists at 200/1 (bet365, BoyleSports 1/4, 1,2,3,4)
Carabao Cup
3pts e.w. Arsenal to win the Carabao Cup at 8/1 (General 1/2, 1,2)
Championship
2pts Ipswich and Southampton to finish in the top 2 at 9.3/1 (bet365)
6pts Coventry to finish in the top six at 11/10 (Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral)
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It's back again. The new football season.
The summer brought us the Club World Cup and Women's Euros, further whetting the appetite for the new domestic season before we'll hopefully be celebrating more English success next summer at the 2026 World Cup.
Before then we'll be hoping to celebrate another year of successful outrights for this column after a cracking 24/25 thanks to Leeds winning the Championship for us at 7/2 (and boy did they make us sweat), Cardiff going down at 9/2, and Alexander Isak (18/1) placing in the Premier League Golden Boot market.
I'll be honest though, I've found it much tougher to find value in this season's markets. The bookies continue to get smarter, either by pricing things correctly or taking more margin in these long-range bets, where punters are asked to tie up money long term.
Last season there were three or four bets that stood out like sore thumbs, but this season those are few and far between, hence a reduction of about 50% to the overall outlay.
All of the top four divisions have been difficult to decipher at the top and the bottom – apart from my beloved Sheffield Wednesday getting relegated from the Championship that is, which looks a formality and is priced accordingly (1/3).
It might be that I return to some markets in the near future once we've seen some footballs being kicked, but for now, I've six bets in this outright column, three from the Prem, two from the Championship and a rogue – and exceptionally early – Carabao Cup selection.
Jake's overall tipping record
- 2024/25: +143.59pts (ROI: +16%)
- 2023/24: +75.90pts (ROI +13%)
- 2022/23: +45.92pts (ROI +11%)
Take no stance in title battle
As someone who has tipped Arsenal to win the league in both the last two seasons, I would be sick if they managed it this time and I hadn't got involved. However, I can't go back in on them given the state of play – even if they have finally signed a striker.
That's because while the last two seasons have started as two-horse races between the Gunners and Manchester City – with Liverpool romping home last season despite being distant 7/1 third favourites – this season we have a genuine four-horse race.
The reigning champions and big-spending Reds (7/4) head the betting but the Gunners (5/2) aren't far behind, with City (7/2) a tad bigger and the Club World Cup champions Chelsea 10/1 having shortened drastically following their success in the US.
You could make a case for any of those sides winning the title: the Reds being streets clear last season and adding yet more quality all over the pitch; Arsenal's defensive solidity, new striker (finally) and added depth; Pep Guardiola's new-look, all-out attacking, high-pressing football or Chelsea's recaptured winning mentality and youthful squad that continues to be added to.
But each side has question marks too: Mohamed Salah will be missing due to AFCON, Hugo Ekitike and Florian Wirtz are unproven Premier League players, while so far Arne Slot hasn't added any defensive cover. Can Mikel Arteta's side create and score enough goals, and stay fit enough, to keep pace? Will the Cityzens be able to keep the transitional goals out? Will Todd Boehly's tumultuous transfer policy catch Chelsea out?
The latter two sides also have the added uncertainty of the effects of Club World Cup participation.
It's a much more competitive league throughout, but especially at the top this season, so I'll be keeping my powder dry before a ball is kicked. Those four sides should fill the first four places, which takes top four betting out of the equation, so we're limited in our options at the very top of the division.
Curveball Carabao bet
While it may be strange to see the word 'Carabao' already, I just can't resist getting on board with ARSENAL TO WIN THE CARABAO CUP at 8/1.
I was torn as to whether to include it in my outright, but given that the competition technically starts before the Prem does (12th Aug), I thought why not?
The logic is simple. Arsenal are a team desperate for a trophy. Any trophy.
The pressure is mounting on Mikel Arteta, who hasn't delivered any silverware since winning the FA Cup in his first season in charge, so they should prioritise this competition given that it presents a great opportunity to lock up a trophy early and really take some pressure off the final months of the season.
They did last season, when reaching the semi-finals only to lose to eventual champions Newcastle, before also losing at the same stage of the Champions League to eventual winners PSG.
That tells us that this Arsenal team are a good cup side, which makes sense given they boast the best defensive process in the country, and that should stand them in good stead again.
As should their transfer business, which has not only strengthened the XI with Viktor Gyokeres and Martin Zubimendi entering the fold, but also brought much-needed depth through Noni Madueke and Christian Norgaard which will aid their challenge to fight on all fronts – especially in the early rounds of this competition as the Gunners look to balance domestic and European commitments.
All in all, I was surprised to see them chalked up at 8s, behind Liverpool (6/1) and City (6/1), despite them being more than a match for both in one-off games. I expected the trio to be roughly the same price before a ball was kicked, or for the Reds to be slight favourites ahead of the Gunners and then City.
Obviously we are in the hands of the footballing gods when it comes to the draw, but that's just a chance I'll take at this early stage.
Value with Villa in top six
Back to the Premier League, and Newcastle (8/11), Aston Villa (6/4), Manchester United (6/5 – lol) and Tottenham (13/8) are the four teams the bookies think will be battling it out for two spots in the top six.
As you can tell by the jokey 'lol', I would be staggered if United got anywhere near the top six this season, though we should see signs of progress from Ruben Amorim's team with him not having European football to contend with.
The other three all do have midweek football on their docket, with Spurs and Newcastle in the Champions League and Villa in the Europa, and it's VILLA who get the nod TO FINISH IN THE TOP SIX at the prices.
Villa finished the 24/25 season in emphatic fashion, until they went to Old Trafford. Defeat there was the difference between Champions League and Europa League qualification, and the knock on of that meant PSR restrictions, limiting their ability to sign players without selling.
That shouldn't be too much of an issue though, as I think their squad is still the sixth best in the league, but the main reason I'm confident in this bet is the man in the dugout.
Unai Emery is one of the best coaches in the top flight, and he gives Villa a great chance in every game they play by setting them up well and spotting things pre and during games that his side can exploit.
He absolutely adores the Europa League, so could be secretly happy that Villa are in the second-ranked competition, but importantly he has shown in the last few years that he can guide a squad to compete on all fronts, first when when reaching the Europa Conference League semi-finals and finishing fourth in the league and last season when finishing 6th and reaching the UCL quarter-finals as well as the FA Cup semi-finals.
It would be nice to see them make a few additions, and that could well happen if players depart, but even so I think the Villans are being underestimated yet again.
The main reason they missed out on a top five spot last season was due to just how competitive the Champions League's league phase was. During the league phase, in which they finished top eight, their league form suffered immensely, winning just one of the eight league games to follow a midweek UCL contest, losing four.
It didn't help that they were also hit with a raft of injuries at the same time, but had they navigated the earlier parts of the league and UCL season better they would have been a top four side. No question.
The Europa League's equivalent phase will be far less intense, so while they will be playing Thursday-Sunday, I'd expect to see far better league results on the back of midweek matches this season which will stand them in very good stead for a top six finish.
Newcastle and Spurs will find out what Villa did last season – that the remodelled Champions League makes every match even more important and every game is at an even higher intensity than before the change. Plus, both of those sides have their own problems to deal with too; Newcastle's Alexander Isak situation and another new manager at the Spurs helm.
Having said that, Spurs did nearly make the staking plan as I am a big Thomas Frank fan. I also think the business Spurs are doing is shrewd, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them and Villa being the two teams below the top four, with a drop-off from Newcastle.
Of the other sides in the mix, there are too many unknowns at Brighton (6/1), Nottingham Forest (8/1) will struggle to juggle European and weekend football, Bournemouth's (10/1) defence has been ravaged (Kepa, Kerkez, Huijsen), Crystal Palace's (10/1) side could look completely different if they lose their European appeal and Everton (10/1) need another six players.
Avoid relegation temptation
For the second season running, the top flight saw the three promoted teams relegated, with the gap between the Premier League and Championship seemingly growing wider by the year – so much so that 27 points has been enough to survive.
It makes betting on the relegation markets all the more tricky, as does the potential for in-season managerial changes and January splurges, so once again I'll swerve the market.
There is concern for both Wolves (7/2) and West Ham (6/1) though, with both losing a raft of players – really important ones in Wolves' case – without replacing them, while Brentford (7/2) have a Frank-shaped hole to fill and look set to lose both of their top scorers from last season.
That could be enough to see them all dragged into it, and if any of the promoted sides is to survive then it will likely be Leeds (evens) who look to be beefing up their squad with physical players and were already streets clear of Burnley (1/3) and Sunderland (2/5) on the major metrics last season – though the Black Cats are splashing the cash in a bid to close that gap.
Spur on Solanke
Tottenham should be much better this season than last, despite playing in a more important European competition. That’s simply because Thomas Frank will box clever as opposed to Ange Postecoglou’s all-out attack philosophy.
That doesn’t mean Spurs will be a more defensive side, they will just be more measured, conserving energy and in turn reducing the number of injuries – well, that'll be the hope.
During Frank’s tenure at Brentford, the Bees were the eighth highest scorers in the 22/23 Premier League and the fifth highest scorers in 24/25, so there is every reason to believe that could translate to an already high-scoring Spurs team.
So, I think it’s reasonable to chance a Spurs striker to be the TOP GOALSCORER this season, with DOMINIC SOLANKE a bet at 33/1.
Solanke had an injury-hit 24/25 campaign and finished with nine goals, but did find form at the back end of the season, scoring in five of his last six starts.
Data-wise, he averaged 0.45 xG per 90 which is a steady if not stellar figure for a striker, but isn’t miles behind the average he managed in 23/24 at Bournemouth (0.53) when he scored 19 times to grab a slice of each-way money for top-scorer punters.
And, while it is a league below, let’s not forget Solanke fired 29 goals in the 21/22 Championship season, showing he can be prolific when able to stay fit and get a run in the team.
I’m sure he’s the type of striker Frank will look forward to working with, and at Brentford he oversaw spectacular scoring seasons for Ivan Toney (20 goals in 22/23), Yoanne Wissa (19 goals in 24/25) and Bryan Mbeumo (20 goals in 24/25) – with two of those picking up each-way place money in the top scorer market.
A bonus with this bet is that there is a strong chance Solanke is on penalty duty this season – especially now that Heung-min Son has announced his departure. Solanke took three penalties across league and Europa League last season and netted all of them.
The final reason I quite fancy Solanke to have a big season is intangible – the fact that he will desperately want to be on the plane to the US as part of England’s World Cup squad, likely as Harry Kane's deputy. He could go well at 33s.
At the top of the market, Erling Haaland (11/8) looks the correct favourite with City likely to plunder a load of goals – more on that later – but those could be shared around more than in recent seasons.
Mohamed Salah (9/2) will be taking time off for AFCON so is easily swerved, especially as the Reds have brought in Hugo Ekitike and Florian Wirtz, while Alexander Isak (7/1) could also be joining the Egyptian at Anfield which could mean the goals are shared around even more, meaning he is overlooked at less than half the price he was last season when selected. Arsenal's new signing Viktor Gyokeres is priced at 7/1 while Ekitike is 16/1.
Chelsea duo Joao Pedro (20/1) and Cole Palmer (20/1) don’t make much appeal given the goals are shared around by Enzo Maresca’s ever-growing squad while we don’t know what team Ollie Watkins (25/1) will be playing for this term.
All in all, Solanke made the most appeal at the prices.
How may I assist you?
Now, I did mention about how I expect Manchester City to score a bucket load this season, and that leads to me to a daft longshot bet.
Pep Guadiola’s side were free-flowing at the Club World Cup, playing with reckless abandon at times as they scored 16 goals in four matches. In the hope that this continues I’m going to back new signing RAYAN AIT-NOURI for MOST ASSISTS at a huge 200/1.
You may think I am mad, and you may be correct, but I think the price is too big. Let’s not forget the Algerian racked up seven assists playing for 16th-placed Wolves last season – just three shy of the each-way places.
That was by far the most assists he's registered since joining the Old Gold, and it was no surprise given he racked up the most shot creating actions per 90 (2.63) since arriving on these shores.
Now in a more attack-minded and talented team, and given licence to get forward and overlap as he showed in the Club World Cup, he could hit double figures in assists and that could get him close enough for us to make money.
The downside is that he will miss some league games due to AFCON, so we’ll reduce stakes on what is a speculative bet.
Bouncebackability
Last season's outright tips in the Championship went pretty well. It went very well actually, with two winners from two tips, returning +39pts.
I can't confidently say we will have a similar level of success this season, but we can certainly try, and the bet that has grabbed my attention is to back both IPSWICH AND SOUTHAMPTON TO FINISH TOP 2 at 9.3/1.
You may think 'well that's super obvious', and you'd be right. That's the beauty of it. While the Championship as a spectacle gets worst every year due to a massive imbalance in finances and a general dominance from the relegated Premier League clubs, it gets better for predictive and punting purposes.
The title favourite has gone on to win the Championship in five of the last six seasons, which bodes very well for Ipswich. They are a well-backed 3/1, which is shorter than Leeds (7/2) were last season, and I'm not as hot on the Tractor Boys as I was the Whites, so I'm swerving a big-staked on the nose bet.
Instead, with parachute payments meaning sides coming down can maintain most of their playing staff from the previous season, I think both Ipswich and Southampton are well set up to bounce straight back up.
Both teams were excellent the last time they were in the Championship two years ago, and if anything this is a weaker renewal. It could be argued that the pair boast the two best managers in the league in Kieran McKenna and Will Still – I'm a massive fan of the latter – and I could very much see a scenario where these are the runaway top two who end up battling out for the title, in which case we can watch on with little stress by backing them this way.
I mean, both starting XIs are just so much better than any other club can field. Ipswich have a back four of Ben Johnson, Jacob Greaves, Dara O'Shea and Leif Davis, have just spent serious money on midfielder Azor Matusiwa from Rennes, still have Omari Hutchinson (for now) and Jaden Philogene on their books as well as Jack Clarke and Sammy Szmodics to name a few.
Southampton can call upon Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Armel Bella-Kotchap, Yukinara Sugawara and Ryan Manning in defence, with some seriously good midfielders in their ranks too: Flynn Downes, Shea Charles, Matheus Fernandes, Joe Aribo and Tyler Dibling (for now). They are covered up top as well with Adam Armstrong, Ben Brereton Diaz, Cameron Archer and new £7m striker Damion Downs.
It'll be hard for the other 22 sides to keep up with this pair.
As mentioned, the league is on the whole weak, and it's hard to make a case for any side finishing above them. The closest, I think, will be Sheffield United after their near-miss last season, losing in another play-off final after accumulating over 90 points.
Ruben Selles is a good coach, and they have kept the majority of their squad together, but they haven't strengthened as they would have liked, and it's likely they have too much of a bridge to gap in terms of playing and coaching staff.
The wildcard is of course Birmingham. They have spent serious cash over the last few seasons and will almost certainly be in the upper echelons of the league, but there are still question marks over manager Chris Jones and the top of the Championship is a different beast to an easy League One.
Leicester's off-field issues, with a possible points deduction, including zero spending in the window means they are easily taken on, so why not keep it simple? Let's back the top two in the market to be the top two. Hey, it won last season...
Stick with Sky Blues
Sticking with the 'it won last season' trend, and despite me not being the biggest Frank Lampard fan, I have to back COVENTRY for another TOP SIX FINISH.
The Sky Blues were beaten in dramatic fashion by Sunderland in the play-off semi-finals but were comfortably the better team over two legs which only highlights their level.
Continuity is key, and Cov have a lot of it, with the same manager and the same players from last season, where they boasted the third best underlying process in the division and accumulated the third most expected points.
More of the same will lead to similar results, and I am surprised we are getting odds-against quotes for a team so used to contending.
They've finished in the top six in two of the last three seasons, while the one they failed to do so was mainly down to a deep run to the FA Cup semi-finals.
I'll say it again, in what looks a weak rendition of the Championship outside the top two, I find it hard to see six teams finishing ahead of Lampard's side, and the 11/10 should be backed accordingly.
No relegation revisit
Despite tipping Cardiff to go down last season, like the Premier League, I think the relegation market is one to swerve.
Sheffield Wednesday's plight – and as a fan of the Owls I am worried for the future of the club – has meant that they take up a huge portion of the relegation market, with the bookies and, frankly, every man on earth knowing they are destined fro the drop.
That means two spots are up for grabs and negative arguments could be made for half the league dropping, but also positive arguments for those same teams.
Oxford (5/2), Charlton (3/1) and Hull (3/1) are the most likely to join Wednesday, but I wouldn't be surprised if all three stayed up. That says it all so we'll leave this market well alone.
Odds correct at 1230 BST (01/08/25)
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