20. Sunderland
Full disclosure, I did the above video and 20-1 before the Black Cats went mental in the transfer market, and while at the time of writing I don't think they'll finish bottom, I think they will still go down. A lack of top flight experience in the dugout is a question mark, as is the fact that they were simply abysmal in the second half of last season, and I can't see three teams being worse than them this term.
19. Burnley
I'm not a big Scott Parker fan, and while the Clarets broke all sorts of records in the second tier, they will go straight back down. The departure of James Trafford was a killer blow given how dominant he was between the sticks last season, and the 'clean-sheet-first' mindset won't work in the Premier League, where the opponents are far, far better than what the Championship has to offer.
18. Wolves
Vitor Pereira did a fantastic job last season at Wolves, and he loves a pint with the fans, so we should all be big fans of him. I am, and I may be wanting to change this early prediction, switching the Old Gold with West Ham given they have gotten busy replacing key players.
Matheus Cunha, Rayan Ait-Nouri and Nelson Semedo have departed, but winger Jhon Arias is a top signing from Fluminense and left-back David Moller Wolfe is a shrewd acquisition from AZ Alkmaar. They could just be ok, though it may be touch-and-go early on.
17. Leeds
The Whites were streets, and I mean streets, clear of every team in the Championship last season according to underlying data. Like, they were on a different planet.
They have spent money this summer too, bringing in some units, looking to build a big, powerful, physical side, and I think that's the best way to survive. Be difficult to beat, be awkward to play against, and match the physicality of the opponents. Leeds have a fighting chance.
16. West Ham
The longer the summer goes on, the less and less I like my West Ham call. I think they could finish lower. The reason I initially had them 16th in my very, very early 20-1 prediction was due to Graham Potter - I don't think his team will be easy to beat. But, their lack of incomings is a real concern, especially when compared to three of the four teams I have below them in this table.
15. Brentford
An off-season of PLENTY of change for the Bees, with Thomas Frank out, Kieth Andrews in, and both club captain Christian Norgaard and top scorer Bryan Mbeumo departing. Yoane Wissa could follow too, so the Bees could be a candidate for the drop, but they are such a well run club the feeling is they'll make the right decisions and signings. They have earned that trust, though will fall well short of last season's top half finish.
14. Everton
A season of transition from Goodison Park is likely to limit the Toffees in terms of league position, with statistics showing that home field advantage is less in the first few seasons when moving to a new stadium. The signing of Thierno Barry is exciting though.
13. Fulham
A quiet window is unusual for any club in the Premier League, but continuity means Fulham will be nowhere near the drop, but also nowhere near the top six.
12. Crystal Palace
Last season's FA Cup winners also don't know which European competition they'll be playing in at the time of writing, meaning their transfer business has been non-existent - no one wants to leave in case Palace are in the Europa, no one wants to join in case Palace aren't in the Europa.
Either way, Thursday-Sunday football will be gruelling for a small squad, and it's likely Glasner will target yet more silverware as opposed to a top six push, so another meandering mid-table finish is likely.
11. Nottingham Forest
"I felt the love!" 💬
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL)
Morgan Gibbs-White explains why he extended his Nottingham Forest contract 🌳
[🎥 Nottingham Forest FC ]
While we don't know as of yet whether Forest will be playing in the Europa or Conference League this season, either way I suspect we'll see a drop-off. Seventh place last season was a big over performance according to expected points, which had them 13th, and suggests that some regression should occur.
Keeping hold of Morgan Gibbs-White, in what was one of the oddest announcement videos I've ever seen, is a coup, but there is an awful lot of improvement needed for Nuno's side to make it back-to-back top-half finishes, especially when having to balance Thursday-Sunday football.
A huge uplift for United this season, jumping from 15th to 10th in my 20-1. I do fear I could be well off here though, with plenty of potential for Ruben Amorim to get the Red Devils right up the table.
Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo add real cutting edge in the final third, something they lacked last season, while a potential deal for Benjamin Sesko would provide a focal point.
Defence remains an issue, though the fact Amorim has free midweeks to work with his team could see them improve rapidly. They are probably still three or four players short from contending at the top end of the table, but perhaps the coaching can make up for that. We shall see, though for now I've placed them squarely mid-table.
9. Bournemouth
The Cherries' defence has been picked apart (sorry for the pun) this off-season, losing three key players (Kepa, Huijsen and Kerkez) from what was such a good team last season. Ilya Zabarnyi could also leave before the window SLAMS shuts.
That leaves gaping holes for Andoni Iraola to fill, but his coaching and tactics could cover some of those and help his side into the top half once again. And let's be honest, they are surely going to reinvest some of that cash to find replacements, and they, like Brighton, are shrewd operators in the transfer market.
8. Brighton
The dark horse every year given how well they are run as a football club. Again they have lost a key player this summer with Joao Pedro off to Chelsea, but they have reinvested that cash on unproven commodities such as 18-year-old Greek striker Charalampos Kostoulas. Knowing the Seagulls' track record, he'll probably be a £200m player in a year.
It wouldn't surprise me were they to finish in the top six, but there are still question marks around their young manager, and the amount of genuine quality in their starting XI.
7. Tottenham
I found it tough to place Spurs this season. I think they will be more measured and smart in their style of play under Thomas Frank than Ange Postecoglou, but the toll that midweek Champions League and weekend Premier League will take on a light squad could be the difference between top six and bottom half.
On paper the starting XI looks decent, especially with Joao Palinha anchoring midfield, but the ACL injury suffered by James Maddison is a blow to their creativity. All in all we'll see an improvement on the 17th (SEVENTEENTH) placed finish from last season, but not quite enough to contend for UCL places.
6. Newcastle
What a summer Newcastle have had. Alexander Isak wants out. Let's sign Hugo Ekitike - nope he's off to Liverpool. How about Benjamin Sesko? - nope he's gone to United. At this rate they'll be getting Alan Shearer out of retirement to lead the line.
Joking aside, if Isak left for the huge fee, I'd suspect the Magpies would reinvest sensibly and make their overall team and squad stronger to deal with the demands of midweek/weekend football. It would be good if he stayed though...
You may be wondering why, after all that, I have Newcastle finishing sixth, and that my friend is their underlying data, which has been exceptionally strong for three seasons now, with them ranking as a top six club on all of three occasions. Most of that is down to Eddie Howe, so trust in the process.
5. Aston Villa
I love Unai Emery. I think he is one of the best coaches in the league and continues to show that he can in fact spin multiple plates. 23/24 saw Villa finish fourth and reach the Conference League semi-finals, 24/25 saw them reach the FA Cup semi-finals, Champions League quarters and finish sixth in the league.
The squad is still very strong and well-rounded, and there are signs they are getting active in the transfer market - signing Evann Guessand - so could be in a great place to have another proper tilt at securing Champions League football via both the league and the Europa League.
4. Chelsea
The Europa Conference League and Club World Cup winners have found a groove under Enzo Maresca, but are they just a good cup team? We will find out this season as they be fancied to contend for the title.
An extraordinarily deep squad, filled with young and hungry players means they are a dangerous animal and a cert for a top four finish. I just wonder if they will run out of gas after a long season followed by the summer's CWC - though perhaps the continuous player signing cycle will negate that. Who knows.
3. Manchester City
Another splurge in the last two transfer windows means the City team we see on opening day could be unrecognisable from the one that won a historic fourth straight title in 23/24. It will still be full of quality though, and perhaps the most attacking, high-pressing version of a Pep side.
They are a team I could see breaking scoring records (currently 106 by City in 17/18), but their defence in general remains a concern, with issues dealing with counter-attacks the main problem. Dealing with potential CWC fatigue could also be a hindrance.
Oh, and let's not forget that we should expect a verdict on the City-Premier League case soon. Right? RIGHT?
2. Arsenal
The bridesmaids for the last three seasons now, they have actually done what everyone has been saying they need to do for a few years - signed a striker.
Viktor Gyokeres is the man they've brought in after a ridiculously successful spell at Sporting Lisbon (97 goals in 102 apps across all comps), and should he do what he's supposed to, he could make the Gunners the most well-rounded team in the league.
The problem is, while their floor is possibly higher than Liverpool's given their defensive solidity, it remains to be seen if their ceiling is a match for the Reds.
1. Liverpool
When the reigning champions - who won the league in a season of transition from historic legend Jurgen Klopp and with barely any spending - splash serious dough in the summer window, it's hard not to see them retaining their title.
Arne Slot's side were streets clear of the rest when it came to underlying data last season (+1.20 xGD per game) and have strengthened in nearly every department, with their attacking firepower something to behold.
Mohamed Salah won't have to be at his imperious best every week for the Reds to score bundles given the new supporting cast, which could also feature Alexander Isak when the window shuts. Even without the Swede they look likely to repeat.
The question mark is around depth in defence and the impact the passing of Diogo Jota will have on the squad. The former could be solved in this transfer window, while the latter could spur the players on even more, to win a title for him and in his memory.
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