It has been a pretty grim few seasons for newly promoted Premier League sides, but this season, there appears to be genuine hope of survival among the new trio.
The last six teams promoted to the top flight have all gone straight back down. Last season, Leicester were the best newcomers with 25 points, 13 adrift of safety. The season before it was Luton with 26, six from safety, but Nottingham Forest (the team above them) had four points deducted.
Both of the basement boys from the last two seasons broke records as well. Sheffield United conceded the most goals in a Premier League season (104) and Southampton became the earliest side to be relegated, going down with seven games to spare.
The gulf between the Premier League and the Championship looks as big as ever but it could be bridged this campaign based on the summer happenings at some of the top flight's residents.
That, combined with all three of Leeds (£70m+), Burnley (£105m+) and Sunderland (£130m+) spending huge sums of money with serious intent means this season could be different, and as well as three sides coming up having a go, existing sides are standing still.
So, are we going to see this recent run of struggle bucked this campaign? Will one or more newly promoted side actually make a fist of things?
Relegation odds ()
- Burnley - 2/7
- Sunderland - 1/3
- Leeds - 11/10
- Wolves, Brentford - 3/1
- West Ham - 5/1
- Crystal Palace, Fulham, Everton - 13/2
- Bournemouth - 17/2
- Nottingham Forest - 17/2
Odds correct 1305 BST (12/08/2025)
BRENTFORD’s summer has been rough. They have been gutted.
Manager Thomas Frank left to join to Tottenham and he has taken the majority of his backroom staff with him. His replacement is their former set piece coach Keith Andrews, one of the few members of Frank's team still at the club, and it is his maiden job.
Brentford are an extremely well run club who will have done their due diligence, but employing a rookie manager is a huge risk.
What's more, the spine of last season's side has also been ripped out. First choice keeper Mark Flekken has gone to Bayer Leverkusen, captain Christian Norgaard has gone to Arsenal and top scorer Bryan Mbeumo has gone to Manchester United.
The Bees look a little light.
WOLVES are in a similar predicament. Matheus Cunha’s gone to United and Manchester City bought Rayan Ait-Nouri. The saving grace for them is they still have the same manager who impressed last season.
It is easily forgotten that Wolves made a terrible start to the last campaign. Certified pints man Vitor Pereira inherited a side with nine points after 16 games (W2 D3 L11), second from bottom and six points from safety. It was only his miraculous impact that saw them reach 42 points (W10 D3 L9).
The turnaround under Pereira is why losing two standout performers doesn’t feel like a complete disaster - he made Wolves more difficult to beat and more dangerous in attack - nevertheless, it is a worry.
BOURNEMOUTH are another club who have had their stars poached.
Milos Kerkez has gone to Liverpool, Real Madrid signed Dean Huijsen, Ilya Zabarnyi’s gone to PSG, Dango Ouattara looks like he is set to leave too and first choice stopper Kepa Arrizabalaga went back to parent club Chelsea only to opt for a move to Arsenal. The Cherries are quids in but that's four of last season's back five responsible for conceding the joint-fifth fewest goals (46) and 8th lowest xGA tally (49.31).
They have reinvested some of that money with keeper Djordje Petrovic signed from Chelsea, left back Adrien Truffert from Stade Rennais and now Bafodé Diakité from Lille.
Even with highly regarded coach Andoni Iraola, some regression from their 9th place finish could be the reality of having to build a completely new defence.
Brentford have had their spine ripped out, Bournemouth have lost their defence and two of Wolves’ best players have gone. FULHAM have an entirely different issue: they haven’t really signed anyone. Well, with the exception of 34-year-old French keeper Benjamin Lecomte from Montpellier.
Although it’s made the Craven Cottage faithful a little edgy, Marco Silva’s calm demeanour in pre-season brings reassurance. After all, this is a manager who wears his heart on his sleeve.
It has become all too familiar for the west London club to lose their best players. In the summer before the 23/24 campaign Aleksandar Mitrovic went to play in Saudi Arabia and then last summer Joao Palhinha went to Bayern Munich.
So, in that sense, the lack of business could be seen as a positive. Silva’s slowly been building a squad with real depth and improved them season-upon-season. That said, the lack of business is worth flagging.
Unlike the other clubs already mentioned, the concerns ahead of NOTTINGHAM FOREST’s season are not a reflection of their summer business. That’s been good, namely tying Morgan Gibbs-White down to a long-term contract.
No, the worry is tactical. Nuno Espírito Santo’s side enjoyed a successful first half of the campaign playing counter-attacking football to great effect.
Forest racked up 47 points across the first 24 games and found themselves in 3rd spot heading into the final 14 matches.
Six points clear of 6th, Champions League qualification was well within their grasp but then they thumped Brighton 7-0 and perhaps that was the worst thing that could have happened, because as Alex Keble predicted in his piece here, teams started to respect Forest. They stopped playing into their hands and Nuno didn’t have the answers.
Forest went on to take 18 points from their remaining 14 games (W5 D3 L6) and finished in 7th.
As cliched as it may be, Nuno needs a plan B or more quality to execute plan A and I don’t think he has either.
Chris Wood netted 20 goals last term from an xG of 13.4, his greatest top flight return and perhaps a little unsustainable. Matz Sels also kept 13 clean sheets, the joint-most in the division, and overperformed post-shot xG by +3.1.
So, there is some cause for concern at the City Ground.
What are EVERTON doing on this list?
Their business has been good this summer and David Moyes drastically improved them last campaign.
Since he returned to Goodison, Moyes’ men took the 9th most points in the division and almost doubled their goals per game from 0.79 to 1.50.
The acquisitions of Thierno Barry and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall add exciting quality, as does Jack Grealish.
So, again, what is the issue?
Well, Everton are moving to their new ground. They have left The Grand Old Lady and it makes me a little uneasy. What if they don’t hit the ground running? Have they lost their home advantage? Will some of their players report to the wrong place?
Yeah, they should be okay.
WEST HAM are perhaps the biggest concerns and at 5/1 generally, they may be worth considering to be relegated.
Graham Potter’s stint at the Hammers got off to an underwhelming start.
He took over at the London Stadium on January 9th and West Ham were averaging 1.2 points per game and sat in 14th. Potter only won five of his 18 Premier League games and although he tightened them up defensively, their points and goals per game record didn’t budge.
On their own patch, West Ham only won five games last season, only the bottom three won fewer, and this is a real worry.
It is the case study for Everton. The Hammers faithful don’t seem to have any real affiliation with their new ground and to be fair why would you?
I’ve been. You're miles away from the pitch. The combination of the running track and the steady slope of the stands are an atmosphere suffocating combination. The players aren’t close enough to hear you let alone recognise them.
It feels like there could be a rift between the fans, the club and the manager developing and with a worse squad than this time 12 months ago, the season could get off to a slow start and really spiral out of control.
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