Andy Schooler previews Saturday’s semi-finals at the Shanghai Masters where his 40/1 outright pick is still going strong.
Tennis betting tips: Shanghai Masters
0.5pt first-set tie-break in Djokovic v Vacherot at 3/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, bet365)
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Novak Djokovic v Valentin Vacherot (0930 BST)
I questioned Djokovic’s physical condition in the heat and humidity of Shanghai the other day and when he was doubled over after just a handful of games against Zizou Bergs, there was a feeling of justification.
It’s been like that in virtually every match over the past week or so for the Serb but, once again, he managed to survive. “Staying alive on court,” is how he put it afterwards.
Djokovic never looked at his best but also never genuinely looked like losing either. Bergs had chances but as we’ve seen in so many Djokovic matches over the years, being able to execute and convert those opportunities proved beyond him.
The greats master the ability to deliver on the big points and that’s exactly what Djokovic did.
Despite his battle with his body and the conditions, Djokovic has only had his serve broken three times in four rounds so far that factor has given him a solid base, even if the physicality is proving tough.
His opponent here has enjoyed a dream run at the tournament, coming through qualifying to reach his first ATP semi-final.
He had never beaten a top-100-ranked player on a hardcourt before arriving in Shanghai. Now he’s won five such matches in a row.
The serve has been a big reason – Vacherot appears to really be hitting his spots and has subsequently lost his delivery only five times in 13 sets in the main draw.
In five of his seven Shanghai matches, Vacherot has come from a set down to win and for those who like to follow trends, you can get 16/1 about another come-from-behind victory.
Given what we’ve seen from Djokovic in terms of his physical fitness, that might not be the worst price around, especially when you consider that the temperature and humidity again crank up again on Saturday – it’s due to hit 33C (with humidity at 60%) and this is the afternoon match.
However, with Vacherot having an awful lot of tennis in his legs now you couldn’t be sure what would happen if this turned into ‘survival of the fittest’.
Preference for me would be to back Vacherot in some shape or form in the opening set.
The pair haven’t played before so that serve could take a while for Djokovic to figure out.
2-2 after six games is around the 8/11 mark, which could be of interest, but for something bigger, consider the 3/1 about a first-set tie-break.
Both men are serving well and with that first-meeting aspect, I would not be at all surprised to see serve dominate in the early stages.
Daniil Medvedev v Arthur Rinderknech (not before 1200 BST)
Medvedev has looked in fine form in Shanghai, fully justifying our outright faith in him, and now we’re one win away from an each-way payout.
He’s a firm favourite to secure that victory, too, but we’d shouldn’t be counting any winnings yet.
We saw on Friday how good form could quickly disappear as Felix Auger-Aliassime failed to deliver the type of performance he had been producing as Rinderknech claimed the upset win.
I’d feel you can rely on Medvedev a bit more than FAA but I certainly have a slight concern here surrounding the type of match this will be.
Medvedev is coming in off the back of two baseline grinds against Alex de Minaur and Learner Tien. Now he has to adapt as he faces a player with a big serve and one who isn’t afraid to come forward.
Rinderknech is clearly striking the ball very well from the back of the court, too, so the Frenchman has more than one way of winning this match.
The good news for the Russian is some shorter points are probably very much welcome given the tennis already in his legs and the brutal conditions, while net points won’t worry him after he delivered an excellent display in the forecourt against De Minaur on Friday.
Another positive for the favourite is that he won the pair’s only previous meeting in straight sets, without dropping his serve and creating 17 break points of his own, although that was back at the 2022 US Open.
Medvedev is, however, beginning to look like the player who was world number one at that time and he’s certainly happy about his tennis again, talking about how he is “hitting the ball great” under new coach Thomas Johansson and is “really happy with the level” he’s at right now.
In isolation, I would expect Medvedev to win this, although he’s only 1/3 to do so. You can get even money about a straight-sets victory.
Still, with that outright interest, I’m loath to get involved.
First of all, we profit any way if he wins and, second, there’s that nagging doubt that something odd will unfold – simply due to the fact we’ve had too many semi-final losers in this column this season.
For those looking to lock in a profit, Rinderknech is available at 23/10.
Posted at 1700 BST on 10/10/25
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