Tennis betting tips: Shanghai Masters outright preview and best bets

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1pt e.w. Daniil Medvedev at 40/1 (General)

1pt e.w. Jiri Lehecka at 40/1 (General)

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Rolex Shanghai Masters

• Shanghai, China (outdoor hard)

We’re going up later than planned with this preview – blame Carlos Alcaraz.

The bookies were reluctant to price up before his Japan Open final victory on Tuesday and hindsight suggests that was a wise choice, at least from their perspective.

Alcaraz, who suffered a ankle injury during his first match in Tokyo, withdrew from Shanghai shortly after lifting the trophy.

As a result, and to no-one’s great surprise, Jannik Sinner was duly chalked up as an odds-on favourite when the markets did go up.

Only Alcaraz has really caused Sinner any great problems this season with four of the Italian’s five losses coming at the hands of his great rival.

It would take a brave man to bet against him this week.

Remember he served a three-month ban earlier this season and so should be fresher than most as the season heads into the final straight. Sinner also has the motivation of battling for the year-end world number one spot – and with Alcaraz missing, this is a great opportunity.

With the Wimbledon champion having also bedded into the Asian swing by reaching the final in Beijing (his clash with Learner Tien had yet to take place at time of writing), much looks in his favour.

With this in mind, it probably makes sense to focus our outright approach on the opposite side of the draw.

Shorn of Alcaraz, whose slot at the top has been filled by Corentin Moutet, this section’s highest seed is now Alex Zverev, but he’s been below his best of late.

The man himself has questioned his own mental state of mind too and after defeat at the hands of Daniil Medvedev in Beijing, I’ve no interest in the German at a single-figure price here.

When looking at alternatives, it’s worth noting that Lorenzo Musetti and Jakub Mensik both quit matches due to injury in Beijing earlier this week.

What I am looking for here is someone happy in quick conditions as Shanghai has delivered some of the fastest on the tour in recent years.

I remember backing Hubert Hurkacz at 40/1 when he won here in 2023 and also being on Ugo Humbert and Matt Ebden at huge prices when they made it to the quarter-finals in the past.

In that horses-for-courses approach, I’m going to take one in the first quarter and another in the second.

Let’s start in that top section where Alcaraz’s withdrawal will have been welcomed by the aforementioned DANIIL MEDVEDEV.

Now, I’ve talked for some time about how he’s failed to win a title since 2023 but the signs of progress are emerging.

Having ditched longstanding coach Gilles Cevara, the Russian has spoken positively about his new relationship with former Australian Open champion Thomas Johansson, adding that he had played some of his “best tennis” during a week-long practice camp before heading to Asia.

Improvement was certainly seen on the match court last week in Beijing where Cam Norrie, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Zverev were all swept aside en route to the semi-finals. That match with Tien may well have been won too, but Medvedev began cramping and eventually had to retire in the third set.

That will be off-putting to some but outright betting is about spotting the potential before it is delivered and there were plenty of good signs last week.

Medvedev has often moaned about the slow conditions produced on the tour these days but that isn’t the case here so there may well be a positive mindset on that front, to go with his coaching one.

He won here in 2019 and made the last eight 12 months ago when not at his best, so I’m happy to have a small play at 40/1.

My other bet is going to be on JIRI LEHECKA.

Most of his best results this season have come in quick conditions which the DecoTurf of Shanghai will provide.

He opened the year with victory in Brisbane and then made the last 16 of the Australian Open. On the grass, he was runner-up at Queen’s Club and at the recent US Open, he was a quarter-finalist.

Lehecka has only played in the Davis Cup since New York but that saw him win both of his rubbers – against Frances Tiafoe and Taylor Fritz – as Czechia stunned the USA in their own back yard. In short, he’s in good form and should be in a confident mood.

He has beaten potential last-16 foe Zverev on a hardcourt before and would surely fancy his chances in any quarter-final – that could be Musetti, Mensik or perhaps, more likely, the hit-and-miss Felix Auger-Aliassime.

Again, 40/1 looks more than fair.

Posted at 2120 BST on 30/10/25

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