Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour preview and best bets for Vienna and Basel

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1pt e.w. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the Swiss Indoors at 22/1 (bet365, Betfred)

0.5pt e.w. Tallon Griekspoor in the Erste Bank Open at 50/1 (General)

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Erste Bank Open

• Vienna, Austria (indoor hard)

If you want to know how much better Jannik Sinner has been than anyone else (bar Carlos Alcaraz) this season, you need only look as far as the betting market for this tournament.

Sinner is chalked up no bigger than 4/7 to win this title, despite the fact that four other members of the world’s top 10 are here.

Anyone who saw the Italian at the Six Kings Slam event in Saudi Arabia last week will know why he’s so short.

In Riyadh, Sinner demolished Stefanos Tsitsipas, Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz, not losing a set en route to a huge pay day.

If he stays in that groove, Sinner won’t lose this week.

Therefore the plan of attack that immediately springs to mind is to look for the finalist on the other side of the draw – most bookies are still paying half the odds for a place in the final, which is a decision to be praised.

Alex Zverev is the man seeded to make the final and he’s also the player the bookies have shortest in this section.

However, the German hasn’t been at his best for some time now and he arrives in Vienna having won just three of his last eight matches.

OK, he’s a former champion here (in 2021) but he looks worth taking on.

Daniil Medvedev is an obvious contender.

The Russian won his first title in almost two and a half years on Sunday when beating Corentin Moutet in a closely contested final in Almaty.

Maybe he’s still thinking he could qualify for the season-ending ATP Finals in Turin but I’d imagine he’ll have to make the final both here and in Paris next week, probably winning at least one of them.

It’s a tough ask, particularly given what he’s already done in the past few weeks.

Sunday’s win took another big effort, one which followed on from a strength-sapping run in the brutal conditions of Shanghai, where he made the semis.

Medvedev is extremely fit but even he will feel fatigue sooner or later, while the dash to Austria from eastern Kazakhstan should not be underestimated.

While organisers will almost certainly grant him a Wednesday start, he won’t be in Vienna until Monday evening at the earliest, so there will be just one day on court to get used to the different conditions – he’s coming down from around 750m above sea level to 200m here too.

In short, I can’t back Medvedev at 10/1.

Lorenzo Musetti is a possible alternative at 25/1.

He’s got a more realistic chance of making it to Turin but still needs points in the Race so should be fully motivated this week.

Musetti didn’t play badly in Brussels but was blown away by the big serve of Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard.

The Frenchman’s delivery is extraordinary but I think it also highlights an issue for Musetti in that he’s not at his best on return in faster conditions.

Conditions have sped up since the Rebound Ace courts were laid here several years back and, with that in mind, I prefer to take a chance of a player at a bigger price.

This column has had semi-final losers at 40/1 and 66/1 in the past two weeks so perhaps it will be third time lucky.

OK, maybe I’m clutching at straws but I do think a case can be made for TALLON GRIEKSPOOR at 50/1.

This is a player who plays some of his best stuff indoors where the elements can’t affect his strong serve.

We’ve seen that on several occasions over the past couple of years. Earlier this season, Griekspoor made the last eight in Montpellier, while last term there were semi-final appearances in Stockholm (at this time of year) and Rotterdam.

Admittedly, the Dutchman hasn’t been in great form in recent months but there have been some signs of improvement of late.

While Sinner ultimately retired from their match in Shanghai, Griekspoor did show what he’s capable of in that contest, which was in a deciding set when it concluded.

Defeat to Valentin Vacherot in that tournament seemed bad at the time but given Vacherot went on to lift the trophy, the result has taken on a different light now.

When Griekspoor headed indoors last week in Stockholm, there was an early defeat to Jacob Fearnley but it only came in a final-set tie-break.

Griekspoor plays a lot of breakers so if he can tighten up a bit on the big points, it’s not hard to see him enjoying a decent week.

He opens against last year’s runner-up Karen Khachanov but the Russian is struggling right now, losing his last four matches. Griekspoor also won their only previous meeting which came on indoor hard.

Brandon Nakashima could follow, which would be a test, and then the out-of-sorts Zverev.

There’s no doubt this is a bet that could go downhill fast but, at 50/1, I reckon Griekspoor is worth a small punt.

Swiss Indoors

• Basel, Switzerland (indoor hard)

Once the domain of a dominant Roger Federer, Basel looks pretty open this year.

Seven of the top 20 will be in attendance with the American duo of Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton heading the field and, therefore, being at opposite ends of the draw.

They are also the top two in the betting but I’m keen on neither at their prices.

A lot of that is down to Americans’ poor record at this time of year and that is probably summed up by Fritz’s record.

Of his 10 ATP titles, only one has come in the post-Wimbledon period. In addition, none of the 10 has come indoors.

Here, Fritz also has a tough draw.

He’ll open against surprise Shanghai champion Valentin Vacherot, could then face Stockholm runner-up Ugo Humbert, while Jiri Lehecka – playing the Brussels final at time of writing – may await in the quarter-finals.

7/2 is too short for me.

Shelton looks a better bet at 11/2, although still not one I want to back.

He was the beaten finalist here 12 months ago and looks to have a much easier start to the tournament than his compatriot.

He’ll meet a qualifier first up and could face another (or Jaume Munar) in round two.

However, two-time champion Felix Auger-Aliassime – the other Brussels finalist - is also in his quarter, while it’s hard to get away from how disappointing Shelton was when he returned to action in Shanghai recently and was well beaten by David Goffin.

FAA is certainly a decent alternative at 8/1 – as I wrote last week, this is his time of year – but I prefer to take a chance on someone at a bigger price.

Up in the top half, I was tempted to back Casper Ruud at 10/1 following his demolition of Ugo Humbert in the Stockholm final on Sunday.

It was some of the best tennis I’ve ever seen from the Norwegian and I’m sure he’ll be heading to Switzerland – where he has a good-looking draw - with confidence flowing.

However, Ruud is only 2-4 in his previous visits to Basel, while you have to wonder how feasible it is for him to keep playing that well.

Instead, I’m returning to that bottom section to back GIOVANNI MPETSHI PERRICARD.

The Frenchman boasts the biggest serve on the tour right now and it carried him to the title here 12 months ago.

He served 109 aces that week and wasn’t broken. In four of his five matches, he didn’t even face break point.

Admittedly, Mpetshi Perricard has found things tougher this season with his poor return game being shown up at times.

However, back indoors, the signs are that he’s going to be a very tough opponent in the next few weeks.

He made the semis in Brussels where, again, he didn’t lose serve but lost to Lehecka in two tie-breaks. That serve delivered 80 aces with Lorenzo Musetti among his victims.

Another top-10 star, Fritz, was beaten recently in Shanghai, while Mpetshi Perricard also reached the semis in Winston-Salem in August, showing his form has been improving for a while now.

This week, he’ll get near ideal conditions for his serve-based game and 22/1 just looks a little on the large side to me.

He’s benefitted from Holger Rune’s awful Achilles injury which means Jakub Mensik and Denis Shapovalov are now the two seeds in his quarter. Before facing either, he’ll need to beat Joao Fonseca – no gimme, but certainly a winnable match in these conditions.

There looks better value here than in some of the market principals, so let’s get involved.

Posted at 1735 BST on 19/10/25

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