Andy Schooler picks out some big prices for this week’s ATP tournaments in Almaty, Brussels and Stockholm.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
0.5pt e.w. Hamad Medjedovic in the Almaty Open at 50/1 (General)
0.5pt e.w. Aleksandar Vukic in the Almaty Open at 66/1 (General)
2pts win Felix Auger Aliassime in the European Open at 7/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt e.w. Raphael Collignon in the European Open at 66/1 (Betfred)
1pt e.w. Ugo Humbert in the Nordic Open at 14/1 (bet365, BetVictor, William Hill)
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Almaty Open
- Almaty, Kazakhstan (indoor hard)
Having seen Daniil Medvedev’s name at the top of the market for this tournament, it feels like I’m being trolled.
Last week’s 40/1 each-way pick in Shanghai looked a potential season-saver for this column when he led his semi-final by a set.
At that stage, he must have been around 1/8 to reach the final and, with a qualifier having already reached the final, probably odds-on for the title.
Hopefully someone out there traded out for a profit. Sadly, the P/L record on this site has no such option.
Still, looking back at that preview, I felt it got a lot right.
Medvedev clearly outperformed his odds and showed that he is getting back towards the level that took him to the world number one spot.
He could well win this week and, given how he played during the Asian swing, certainly deserves favouritism.
But do I have any desire to back him at 9/4? The answer is no.
There could be a hangover from a massive missed opportunity, while the Russian must deal with a considerable change in conditions – Almaty is more than 700m above sea level so there’s plenty of altitude in play, making the balls fizz through the air that bit faster.
Such conditions could well suit Medvedev, who is a player who has been very vocal about slow courts in the past. However, for me, the price is just too short.
As long-term readers will know, my modus operandi has been to seek value and, more often than not, back those with potential at chunky prices.
Last year’s runner-up Gabriel Diallo is one who should enjoy the faster conditions here, although he is the third favourite, while Nicolas Jarry has a good record at altitude, although all of his success has come on clay, while he’s also out of form having not won a match since Wimbledon.
For those happy to oppose Medvedev, the man I’m looking at is HAMAD MEDJEDOVIC.
The big-serving Serb has played well indoors this year.
He made the final in Marseille when backed at 40/1 in this column back in February. That followed on from a Challenger Tour title in Oeiras, while he upset Holger Rune on indoor hard in the Davis Cup.
Frankly, I’m surprised he’s available at 50/1.
One reason for that is the fact he retired from his last match in Shanghai with foot blisters, although that was now almost two weeks ago, while the hot and humid conditions exacerbated any such problems there.
Another is that he faces seed Brandon Nakashima first up. However, Medjedovic won their only previous match which happened to come on indoor hard in Belgrade around this time last year.
It’s a match which seems likely to be decided by a handful of points – maybe two tie-breaks – given that serve is each man’s strength and return a weak spot for both.
Looking further ahead, Medvedev was one of Medjedovic’s victims en route to that Marseille final earlier this year. Essentially, if he’s fully fit, the Serb has the potential to make his odds look big indeed.
Up in the top half, one led by Karen Khachanov, I’m also keen to go with a bigger price.
Khachanov has now lost four of his last five matches, the most recent to local wild card Juncheng Shang in Shanghai.
Yes, he won this title 12 months ago but he looks worth taking on.
I considered his potential first opponent, Jan-Lennard Struff (33s). He’s shown ability at altitude before, going deep in tournaments such as Madrid, Munich and Gstaad. However, like Jarry, that success has come on clay.
Arthur Cazaux (22s) is in good form – he won a Challenger Tour title on outdoor hard in China on Sunday.
However, that is also a potential problem as he now faces a dash to Almaty from Jinan in eastern China, not an easy one to do according to a quick Google search. Even if he gets a Wednesday start, that’s a tough schedule.
Alex Michelsen (22s) was another I looked at. He played well indoors at the end of 2024 but the fact is he’s not won a match since Cincinnati - I need more to go on than that.
Instead, I’m prepared to take a chance on ALEKSANDAR VUKIC at a whopping 66/1.
When writing about Medvedev last week, I mentioned how betting is about “spotting the potential before it is delivered” and with that phrase in mind, Vukic fits the bill.
This is a player who has struggled for much of 2025 often losing tight matches. However, the past few weeks have seen him beginning to notch a few wins, notably in Tokyo where he made the quarter-finals before losing to world number 12 Casper Ruud.
Vukic served 54 aces in five matches that week and his first serve has often been a key component for him to succeed.
I’d envisage the Australian having some joy on that shot in these altitude-fuelled conditions.
That was certainly the case 12 months ago when Vukic reached the last four at this venue, beating seed Adrian Mannarino and Frances Tiafoe before losing to eventual champ Khachanov.
Vukic opens against a qualifier before facing either Michelsen or local wild card Beibit Zhukayev. Luciano Darderi, essentially a claycourter, could lie in wait in the last eight.
That looks a pretty good draw for a player with weapons to cause some damage. Back him to small stakes.
BNP Paribas Fortis European Open
- Brussels, Belgium (indoor hard)
Brussels is a new venue on the ATP Tour in 2025 – this tournament has moved there from nearby Antwerp.
Conditions tended to be pretty quick in Antwerp over the years and organisers say they are sticking with a medium-fast GreenSet court in Brussels.
That should suit 7/2 favourite FELIX AUGER-ALIASSIME.
The Canadian won in Antwerp in 2022, which was the year he scooped three indoor hardcourt titles in as many weeks.
He’s been one of the best indoor players in recent seasons and it’s noteworthy that six of his seven ATP title have come with a roof over his head.
The most recent came in Montpellier earlier this season.
On all hardcourts this season, FAA has gone 28-11 and he arrives in Belgium this week having won 11 of his last 14 matches, two of the losses coming against Jannik Sinner.
Auger-Aliassime was rolling along nicely in Shanghai last week before running into Arthur Rinderknech against whom he gave a rather disappointing performance.
However, I’m prepared to forgive him that off-day – there’ve been rarer of late and this was a man who beat Alex Zverev, Andrey Rublev and Alex de Minaur en route to the semis of the US Open not too long ago.
FAA lost his serve only three times in four matches in Shanghai and with that shot firing well, I’m expecting a strong challenge from him in what should be near-ideal conditions.
Motivation should not be an issue either.
Last week’s quarter-final loss leaves him with plenty of work to do in the Race to Turin – FAA currently sits 530 points behind Lorenzo Musetti, who holds the final qualification place. With both in this field, the chance is there to narrow the gap.
In terms of longer shots, I was hoping to find one on the other side of the draw where the top seed is that man Musetti.
Quentin Halys has the weapons to perform well in such conditions but he’s been woefully short on wins of late and backing him at 50/1 would require a real leap of faith that a switch indoors is going to turn around his form. I’m not convinced enough.
The player who I think could go well at a big price is RAPHAEL COLLIGNON.
He’s another with no doubts over motivation levels. He’s a proud Belgian and should love performing in front of his home crowd.
Again, we need to look beyond his current achievements to believe he’s capable of going deep but I feel the foundations have been built.
Collignon has been impressive on the Challenger Tour this year, particularly indoors. He made two finals in February, winning in Pau, and he’s spent the past few weeks racking up more wins, making the final and semis at two events in France.
Of course, that’s a lower level than this but this is also a player who defeated Casper Ruud at the US Open and then stunned Alex de Minaur during Belgium’s shock Davis Cup win in Australia last month.
Essentially, this is an in-form player who enjoys indoor conditions and is playing on home soil.
Even with Collignon on the same side of the draw as Auger-Aliassime, I can’t resist a small slice of the 66/1 being dangled.
BNP Paribas Nordic Open
- Stockholm, Sweden (indoor hard)
There’s another indoor expert in this field and his name is UGO HUMBERT.
The Frenchman with the big lefty serve likes to hit that shot without any weather interventions, while he’s pretty old school in the sense that he’s happy to come forward to the net in conditions that allow it.
Now, Stockholm hasn’t necessarily been the fastest of indoor tournaments in recent years – they’ve been on Plexipave courts since 2021 – but Humbert had the option of where to play this week and so there must be something he likes about heading here for the first time.
This is a bet based largely on Humbert’s indoor record which is one few players can match.
In the last 24 months, he’s played eight indoor tournaments, winning three, finishing runner-up at one and making the semi-finals of another.
This year’s sole visit indoors saw him triumph in Marseille and I just think that’s a record worth paying attention too.
Now, I’ve no doubt critics will point out the Frenchman’s form has been pretty poor since that Marseille win all the way back in February but we’ve seen before how a switch to favourable conditions can kickstart Humbert.
With a first-round bye, the fourth seed also needs to win just three matches for his each-way backers to profit.
The first of those does have the potential to be awkward – Matteo Berrettini or a qualifier. However, the Italian is still feeling his way back from another injury and has now lost five of his last six matches.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli is the other seed in this quarter, while Holger Rune is a possible semi-final foe for Humbert.
Rune was one of the victims of the Valentin Vacherot show in Shanghai and while defeat to the world number 204 was something many other big names suffered, I’m sure the Dane will still be looking back on that as something of a missed opportunity.
Rune has had a pretty inconsistent season and while he’s a former champion here, it’s not hard to see the 3/1 favourite falling early.
He may need to. Rune leads Humbert 5-0 which will be enough to put some off.
Still, I just feel 14/1 looks a big price about a player who should be re-energised by the move indoors and so I will back him accordingly.
Posted at 1900 BST on 12/10/26
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