Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour preview and best bets for the Cincinnati Open

Tennis betting tips: Cincinnati Open

1pt e.w. Alex Zverev for the title at 22/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)

0.5pt Corentin Moutet to win the second quarter at 28/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.5pt Jakub Mensik to win the fourth quarter at 12/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

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Cincinnati Open

• Cincinnati, USA (outdoor hard)

Cincinnati used to be a relatively easy tournament to preview given it was regarded as having some of the fastest conditions on the ATP Tour.

Roger Federer loved it here, winning on seven occasions. Marin Cilic is a former champion. And I remember almost striking it big with 66/1 each-way pick Hubert Hurkacz in 2023 when he held match point in the semi-finals only to lose. That still rankles, as you can probably tell.

The problem now is that the Lindner Family Tennis Center has been completely refurbished and that includes a resurfacing of the courts, which are now a Har-Tru surface – the same one just used in both Toronto and Washington. They also use the same Wilson ball here.

We can’t be sure what will result but there’s a good chance that conditions won’t be considerably different here this year.

With this ‘homogenisation’ of the North American hardcourt swing, it’s not hard to imagine seeing the same players contend here as did so in Toronto and Washington.

Ben Shelton and Taylor Fritz, for example, have gone deep at both events, while Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Alex de Minaur also played well across the two before running out of steam.

The difference here is that we’ve got the big boys back in the shape of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz.

Having opted out of Toronto, the world’s top two will both make their first appearance since meeting in the Wimbledon final, a match won by Sinner in four sets.

The pair are clearly the world’s best right now – and by some distance.

Since the Italian returned from his drugs ban, the pair have played three tournaments together and have met in the final at all three.

Unsurprisingly, they dominate the market here, although that period of inactivity does offer hope to those already bedded in on the hardcourts.

Sinner arrives with his elbow still in a protective sleeve but insists it “feels good” having been affected by the issue at Wimbledon. However, I’m not sure that’s great news if you are looking to back the favourite at 6/5.

Despite this, of the two, I’d agree with the bookies and suggest Alcaraz is the more vulnerable.

While it’s a harsh criticism for a player who made both finals, the Spaniard wasn’t at his best at both Roland Garros and Wimbledon – at least in some of the earlier rounds – and such performances can prove fatal at this level when it’s the best of three sets.

You only have to go back to last year’s tournament here to find Alcaraz losing to Gael Monfils after producing what he called at the time the worst performance of his career.

He wasn’t happy with conditions that day, saying “the balls were faster on the Centre Court, bounced much, much more than other courts”, which again makes you wonder how much things have changed conditions-wise and also whether a seed of doubt has been sown in Alcaraz’s mind.

Frankly, I don’t want to back Alcaraz at 9/4 – or Sinner at his short price. Really, this week is all about preparation for the US Open for those two and while winning the title would probably be seen as ideal, at the end of the day it’s not vitally important.

I’d prefer to take them both on and, given what I’ve said about Alcaraz, I’ll look to the bottom half of the draw to do so.

ALEX ZVEREV has enjoyed Cincinnati in the past – he’s won 12 of his last 14 matches here. Six of those victories have been against top-20 opponents.

He won the title in 2021 and, after missing out in 2022 due to injury, reached the semis in each of the past two years, losing to Novak Djokovic in 2023 and Sinner (in a final-set tie-break) last season. Both went on to be crowned champion.

His big serve is ideal for quick conditions and he’s loved the ball bouncing up relatively high here in recent years.

As already highlighted, we can’t be sure how the courts will play this time around, although what we do know is that the Har-Tru surface has been pretty quick in Washington and Toronto, living up to its official ITF rating of ‘medium-fast’.

What we also know is that it’s likely to be hot and humid in Cincinnati – temperatures are expected to be in the low 30s in the early part of the event and the high humidity in Ohio at this time of year often makes it feel hotter.

Zverev, one of the fittest players on the ATP Tour, hasn’t had a problem with this in the past. Many have.

The German has also played himself in some hardcourt form – at time of writing he’s just lost in the semi-finals in Toronto, missing match point to beat Karen Khachanov in a match which saw him lose serve only once.

Some will argue a deep run at that event – one which bizarrely ends on the same day this one starts – will hinder his chances here.

However, the new 12-day format of these Masters 1000 tournaments means players have had plenty of rest days over the past fortnight and so I’m not convinced that a player as physically fit as Zverev will be bothered by returning to action so soon.

His first match won’t be until Sunday and the schedule means he’s only due to play on consecutive days twice.

Zverev is in the third quarter which means he’s due to face Alcaraz in the semis but even if that does happen, it’s worth noting that the German has won five of their seven hardcourt matches.

On all surfaces, he’s won three of the last five, all of his wins coming in pretty fast conditions, two at the ATP Finals in Turin and one at the Australian Open.

Zverev may first need to beat Ben Shelton, another player whose racked up plenty of wins already on the hardcourts this summer, but the American is one I’d be more concerned about in terms of fatigue as he also played Washington and will arrive in Cincinnati having already played 10 matches during this hardcourt swing following a run to the Toronto – and making this column a profit.

Fritz is in a similar boat and could be worth opposing in the second quarter.

Washington finalist Davidovich Fokina may be better for a rest having looked out on his feet when retiring against Andrey Rublev in Toronto and the Spaniard could have something to say in this section.

However, one man who could make an impact at a big price based on recent form is CORENTIN MOUTET.

The Frenchman’s unique brand of mix-it-up tennis has reaped impressive dividends of late, notably in some fast conditions.

He beat his potential quarter-final foe Fritz at Queen’s Club before reaching the final in Mallorca the following week.

Proving that was no flash in the pan on the grass, Moutet backed it up with a semi-final run in Washington where Daniil Medvedev was among his victims. And then last week he thrashed Jenson Brooksby before losing to the in-form Davidovich Fokina.

Moutet may have to beat seeds Alex Michelsen, Holger Rune and Frances Tiafoe to make any QF with Fritz so it’s probably unlikely to happen but, that said, there are harder draws than that out there and Moutet’s game is a frustrating one for many to deal with and he’s clearly playing well right now.

For me, odds of 28/1 abut him winning the quarter are tempting enough for a minimum-stakes bet.

Going back to my theory that Alcaraz could be vulnerable, it’s also worth taking a look at his fourth quarter, one for which the Spaniard is odds-on at 4/9.

JAKUB MENSIK has already won a title at this level this season, doing so in Miami where his serve proved too tough for most to deal with.

The Czech hasn’t been in the same sort of form recently but the talent is clearly there and conditions should help that big shot, the serve, in Cincinnati.

Mensik’s serve baffled Novak Djokovic in the Miami final – could it do the same to Alcaraz if they met? Well, the pair are yet to meet so it certainly has the potential to surprise.

Mensik’s draw looks to give him the chance to play himself back into form here – Miomir Kecmanovic or Ethan Quinn will be first up, before a possible meeting with Denis Shapolvalov, who disappointed last week in Toronto.

Let’s take a punt on the talented teenager at 12/1.

Posted at 0950 BST on 07/08/25

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