Andy Schooler brings you his outright preview of the National Bank Open in Toronto as Masters 1000 tennis returns to the ATP Tour.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
1pt e.w. Ben Shelton for the title at 10/1 (General)
0.5pt e.w. Denis Shapovalov at 40/1 (Unibet, BetMGM)
0.5pt e.w. Tallon Griekspoor at 50/1 (Unibet, BetMGM)
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National Bank Open
- Toronto, Canada (outdoor hard)
Masters-level tennis returns to the ATP Tour this week – or maybe make that two.
As part of the tour’s revamp of its top-tier events, the National Bank Open in Toronto will take place over 12 days with the final, bizarrely, being staged on a Thursday – the same day action begins in Cincinnati.
It’s fair to say the changes have not gone down well in some quarters and many feel it is a big reason for four of the world’s top six not being here, including Wimbledon champion Jannik Sinner and French Open king Carlos Alcaraz.
As a result, you get the feeling this is wide open and a tournament with every chance of some big-priced players going deep and even winning it.
Last year, when staged in Montreal, this event was won by Alexei Popyrin, who I remember backing at 20/1 to win his quarter. How I wish I’d gone the whole hog and backed him outright!
Matteo Arnaldi and Sebastian Korda also made the semis that week and I think it’s worth considering those who could do something similar here.
As in Montreal, they will play on a Har-Tru surface – as part of a deal with Tennis Canada, it has replaced the Laykold used here when the ATP last visited in 2023.
It is classed as medium-fast by the ITF’s court-pace rating and has the potential to aid the strong servers.
The bottom half looks the stronger to me – seven of last week’s eight quarter-finalists in Washington are in it, plus the likes of Andrey Rublev, Arthur Fils and Miami champion Jakub Mensik.
I’ll come back to that section later but it’s clear to me that if we are looking for a big-priced finalist, then the top section is the place to look.
In the absence of Sinner and Alcaraz, Alex Zverev is the top seed but he’s rarely gone well in Toronto – one quarter-final appearance – and has been verbally beating himself up a lot lately. He’s clearly not happy with how he’s been playing.
Lorenzo Musetti and Holger Rune are other high seeds in this half but both have struggled with injuries of late, Rune withdrawing from Washington with back pain less than a week ago.
I’m happy to take them all on and have two players in mind with which to do so.
In quarter two, DENIS SHAPOVALOV is playing on home soil and should be fully motivated.
He returned to some sort of form a couple of weeks ago when winning on the hardcourts of Los Cabos and while that wasn’t a particularly strong field, he dominated all-comers, losing only 18 games across his four matches en route to the title.
His serve was broken only twice all week and the second delivery held up well – he won over 60% of second-serve points in each of his matches.
Clearly the level of opposition rises here but Shapovalov has been strong on this surface for quite some time.
He’s already an ATP title winner this season in Dallas, while he also made the semis in Acapulco. And he ended last season with victory in Belgrade, so he’s won 23 of his last 30 hardcourt matches.
He’s beaten the likes of Taylor Fritz, Tommy Paul, Casper Ruud and Jiri Lehecka during that run and if you look at his entire hardcourt record over the past 12 months, you find he’s held serve 86% of the time and broken 26%. A combined figure of 111 is very good.
For me, there’s enough to like to back him.
In quarter one, I’m prepared to take a chance of TALLON GRIEKSPOOR.
I’ve mentioned the Dutchman’s strong serving in previous columns – he’s held serve in 87% of service games on hardcourts in that last-12-months period.
Griekspoor had made semis in Dubai and the last eight of the Indian Wells Masters in 2025 with Ugo Humbert, Daniil Medvedev and Zverev all beaten. The latter is significant given they could meet in the last 16 here.
I see that as a match which could easily be settled by a handful of points, probably in tie-breaks, of which Griekspoor plays a lot.
He looks well drawn and if that serve is in the groove, I can see him being tough to beat in Toronto. Back him at 50s.
Going back to the bottom half, I suspect its strength will see one of the bigger guns come to the fore, rather than all of them falling by the wayside.
The one I like here is BEN SHELTON.
Now, I’m writing this just a few hours after his disappointing loss to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Washington semis, although the Spaniard was clearly on one of his hot weeks, having also taken out Taylor Fritz in DC.
However, Shelton has been playing well and I’m prepared to excuse him one bad day at the office.
Prior to that loss, his form had been strong with his biggest weapon, the serve, firing.
He’d lost serve only seven times in eight matches before facing ADF, while two of last week’s matches didn’t see him face a break point.
That run backed up a quarter-final appearance at Wimbledon where it took eventual champion Sinner to stop him and across the two events, six of his seven wins have come in straight sets.
His run through this draw is due to see him face Brandon Nakashima (H2H 4-0, all in straights), Flavio Cobolli (beaten in Acapulco earlier this season) and Frances Tiafoe, a player he defeated comfortably in Washington last week. Fritz could follow in the semis, although he appears to have a tougher route to the last four.
In short, plenty to like about Shelton’s chances and I’ll back him each way at 10/1.
Posted at 1248 BST on 27/07/25
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