Richard Mann has three selections in his staking plan for the World Snooker Championship – check out his in-depth preview of the outright market here.
Snooker betting tips: World Championship
1pt e.w. Neil Robertson to win the World Championship at 16/1 (StarSports)
0.5pt e.w. Joe O'Connor to win the World Championship at 66/1 (StarSports)
0.5pt e.w. Pang Junxu to win the World Championship at 100/1 (General)
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The walk from Sheffield Train Station to the Crucible Theatre is a walk like no other. Like so many, it’s always been one of my favourites.
The surroundings are pleasant enough, and when the sun shines, South Yorkshire can glisten with the best of them. As April rolls around, snooker consumes the landscape, and you feel you can hear the Winter Garden long before you can see it. At this time of year, Sheffield, the steel city as it was famously known, becomes the snooker city.
The relationship between city and sport goes back decades. The history is deep and rich. People want to change that, some of us want to move the date to a different slot on the calendar, but nobody can deny there is something very special about the World Snooker Championship at the Crucible. There really is nothing quite like it.
When defending champion Kyren Wilson opens the show against Lei Peifan on Saturday morning to a typically packed theatre, the buzz inside that famous old venue will make the hairs on your neck stand tall. Of course, other sports and other venues do that, but this is our sport and our unique, treasured venue. For the next 17 days, we will fall back in love all over again.
O'Sullivan dominates the headlines again
Just has been the case for three decades, the headline story of this year’s championship is Ronnie O’Sullivan. Twelve months ago, all eyes were on O’Sullivan and his bid to complete the Triple Crown set all in the same season. This year, the question is whether he will choose to play at all.
At the time of publication, we are under the impression he will, so we’ll assess his chances the best we can. And the truth is, it’s not an easy one to weigh up.
We aren’t talking about any normal snooker player here. O’Sullivan is a snooker player like no other, a sportsman who wouldn’t be out of place if we were talking about Tiger Woods, Pele or Novak Djokovic. In snooker terms, this is the greatest of all time.
Seven world titles, the last of which came in 2022 to draw him level with Stephen Hendry, means one more Crucible win is all there is left for O'Sullivan to achieve. He has done everything else. Most ranking titles, most Triple Crown wins, most centuries. He’s taken the game to new heights, and there won’t be another like him.
In 2013, O’Sullivan took a season-long break before dusting off his cue to win the World Championship at a canter. The similarities are there for all to see, though he wasn’t approaching his 50th birthday all those years ago.
Despite not playing competitively since the Championship League in January, when smashing his cue to pieces in anger and subsequently pulling out of the Masters, O’Sullivan’s form before Christmas suggested the old magic was still there. He reached three semi-finals and played well enough when losing to Barry Hawkins at the UK Championship.
We shouldn’t forget that O’Sullivan was by some distance the best player of the previous campaign, five major titles, including the UK Championship and the Masters, a wonderful demonstration of his enduring dominance over the rest of the tour.
I can’t believe that just a year on, O’Sullivan’s best snooker isn’t capable of winning tournaments, and with reports that he has been flying in practice, I won’t be ruling him out, for all I suspect understandable rustiness makes him vulnerable in the first couple of rounds.
Strangely, a first-round meeting with Ali Carter might be just what he needs. He and Carter go way back and the relationship is a sour one. There is no love lost there, but that might just sharpen the O’Sullivan mind.
Can Wilson defy the Crucible Curse?
One man who won’t be rusty is the aforementioned Wilson, defending champion following his maiden world title last spring when beating Jak Jones 18-14 in the final.
So many have struggled the season after winning the World Championship for the first time – Luca Brecel is the most recent example of that – but not so Wilson. He has won four big tournaments, including the Players Championship when he beat Judd Trump in a final for the third time this term. As for the Triple Crown events, he reached the last four of the UK Championship and the final of the Masters.
Away from the table, Wilson has taken everything in his stride through the year and is just the type who will relish returning to Sheffield as champion. Furthermore, I suspect he’ll get a kick out of trying to defy the famous Crucible Curse.
The weight of history suggests Wilson is up against it, and he finds himself in a tough half of the draw with O’Sullivan, Mark Allen and Mark Selby, to name just a few.
I won’t be backing him, his heavy workload this year as much of a reason as anything else, but there is no question that he boasts outstanding form claims for a 7/1 chance.
That top half of the draw promises to take some navigating, but I’ll never forget John Higgins telling me back in 2019 that when it comes to the Crucible and the draw, ‘you can rip it up’. He was right that year, too, as James Cahill famously stunned O’Sullivan in round one and that section opened right up.
What are the best bets?
It's with that in mind I make NEIL ROBERTSON my headline bet.
A brilliant world champion in 2010, my personal view is that criticism of Robertson’s more recent record at the Crucible is unfair, and I’m convinced he has enjoyed the perfect preparation this time around.
His record at the World Championship fills plenty of column inches and gains much traction on social media, but we are talking about a former champion here who has made two more semi-final appearances and six quarter-finals. It’s hardly anything to be ashamed of and certaintly doesn’t suggest to me this is a man who doesn’t act at the track.
Moreover, he has produced some wonderful performances at the Crucible in recent times. He made a memorable 147 maximum break in a thrilling match with Jack Lisowski three years ago, and produced a spellbinding display against Shaun Murphy in 2019 when winning 13-6.
I’m keen to talk about that 2019 renewal, because to my mind it highlights one of the main reasons why Robertson has fallen short at the World Championship more recently.
That season had been another successful one for the Australian, but March was especially busy that year, with two finals reached at the Players Championship and Tour Championship. By the time he met John Higgins in the last eight at the Crucible, he was beginning to run on empty, and in a match that turned into something of a war, not helped by any number of kicks and issues with conditions, Higgins ground his way to victory.
I don’t think playing behind closed doors really helped anyone the following year, but Robertson made the quarter-finals again, as he did in 2021 just a few weeks on from beating O’Sullivan to win the Tour Championship.
And lo and behold, in 2022 Robertson returned to the Crucible as the form horse having again won the Tour Championship just weeks earlier, along with the Players Championship prior to that. Yet again, the red light on the petrol gauge was flashing brightly by the spring, at the end of a long and successful campaign involving so many high-pressure matches.
When we talk about the Crucible Curse, perhaps we should talk about the Tour Championship Curse, too, because it’s not only Robertson who has come unstuck in Sheffield following victory in another significant event just a matter of weeks prior.
Shaun Murphy completed the Players Series double in 2023 and was atop of many people’s shortlists for the World Championship as a result. He went on to lose in the first round, as did Mark Williams last year, hot from his win at, you guessed it, the Tour Championship.
I think it’s fair to argue that if you’re knocking Robertson’s Crucible record, you’re punishing him for his success in other big tournaments. We see it all the time. Throughout the course of a season, the top players peak and dip at different times. Robertson’s peaks have generally been around those big-money ITV events, and he deserves praise for that.
Snooker players aren’t machines, and for Robertson, after a sustained period of success, the wheels fell off for a couple of years. It got so bad that he didn’t even make it through qualifying last year.
Robertson back on song and primed to peak
But there is an old saying about class being permanent and Robertson has proved just that, working back to close to his peak with an early-season win at the English Open, and then victory at the World Grand Prix at the beginning of March where he beat a host of high-quality players, before whitewashing Stuart Bingham in the final.
I really fancied him for the Players Championship on the back of that and he wasn’t far away, losing to eventual winner Wilson in the last four 6-5 having breezed into a 4-1 lead. Robertson didn’t do a lot wrong on the night, Wilson was just outstanding from behind.
It reminded me very much of when O’Sullivan was beaten by Robertson himself in the semi-finals of the Tour Championship back in 2022. Robertson went on to win the event, while O’Sullivan showed himself to be working his way into top gear without reaching it until a few weeks later in Sheffield.
And then at this year’s Tour Championship, I’m not getting too hung up on Robertson’s heavy defeat to Selby who really did play out of his skin all week there. Robertson had beaten Selby at the Players Championship just a week or so earlier, so I doubt any sleep will have been lost over that.
But what it does do is ensure the 43-year-old will finally head to the Crucible relatively fresh, but with confidence gleaned from that World Grand Prix success and his form at the Players Championship. To my mind, it’s close to the perfect Crucible preparation, something Robertson hasn’t had in a long time.
And if I’m right, and Robertson is about to peak for the big one, I think current quotes of 16/1 severely underestimate a player who is unquestionably one of the greats of the modern game. A colossal break-builder and laser-guided long potter, Robertson has won 25 ranking titles in a quite magnificent career already – and he looks primed to win the biggest prize of all again.
Passing over Selby, essentially in favour of Robertson, is never an easy thing to do at this tournament, one he has won four times. Selby is a beast at the Crucible, almost unbeatable if reaching the final weekend.
However, perhaps there have been just a few signs that his air of invincibility in big finals might just be fading. Luca Brecel showed that in the 2023 final here and Higgins in that recent Tour Championship final, Selby losing from 8-5 in front there.
That’s not to say he isn’t highly respected. His Crucible record remains outstanding, a word which would describe his form throughout the Tour Championship. He clearly has plenty in his favour.
Odds of 5/1, and that’s the best you’ll find, confirm he hasn’t been missed by bookmakers, though, and with Robertson nearly three times the price, there was only one side of the coin I was ever going to fall down on.
Can Allen finally crack the Crucible?
At a standout 20/1, Mark Allen is more like it in terms of price, and he has become a much more rounded player in recent years. His tactical play has improved immeasurably and he seemingly possesses the patience of a saint. He can win ugly where he once could not. Sometimes it seems he prefers it that way.
There is an argument to say that Allen has taken things too far at the risk of losing his attacking instincts, the thing that made him such a fine player to begin with. I’m not so sure and the facts are that he has become a serial winner.
Only two Crucible semi-final appearances in his career doesn’t make for good reading, though he did reach that stage in 2023 and comes into this year’s renewal fresh.
The nagging doubt with Allen is whether he has the ability to win the sessions that he dominates easily, quickly wrapping up matches and conserving energy for the home straight. It’s something O’Sullivan has mastered in recent years, it’s something Robertson can do, and Wilson most certainly did it on his way to the title 12 months ago.
We often talk about multi-session matches and players needing to be able to manage bad sessions to keep themselves in matches. Lose a session 5-3 that you might have lost 6-2 or 7-1. Stay alive and go again. But being able to put matches to bed quickly is equally important in this marathon of 17 days.
Does Allen have that in his locker right now? I fear he doesn’t, and on the back of a season where he has constantly been searching for his best form, I can let him go in favour of Robertson from an undoubtably competitive half of the draw.
Pang the pick of the big prices
I can’t move on from the top half without taking a flyer on PANG JUNXU, who I thought was deeply impressive in qualifying for the Crucible for a third time. He only dropped two frames against Ashley Carty and beat Jamie Jones comfortably. Crucially, he scored well in both matches.
Pang is a young player I think can make a big breakthrough in the next few years, and he wasn’t far away when reaching the semi-finals of this season’s Northern Ireland Open, losing 6-4 to eventual winner Wilson in a good-quality match. He’d earlier numbered Robertson and Brecel among his victims that week.
Pang strikes the ball beautifully, looks to have a well-rounded game for one so young, and took seven frames from O’Sullivan on his Crucible debut in 2023. Last year, he lost 10-9 to Robert Milkins, so is building up experience and should be better for it.
His round-one draw against Zhang Anda, currently 0-4 at the Crucible, appears favourable, and while this top half is red-hot and littered with big names, quotes of 100/1 about Pang look worth a swing.
Taking a flyer at this tournament has been no bad strategy in recent years. Brecel hadn’t won a match before winning the title in 2023 and Jones was a qualifier when making the final last year. Pang has the game to do something similar if the cards fall his way.
Draw makes Trump strong favourite
The bottom half of the draw, in theory, should be easier to navigate, and sitting right at the bottom is world number one and 2019 champion Trump.
It’s been another excellent season for Trump who has won three more tournaments, including the UK Championship in December, along with a host of other deep runs. It’s the consistency that really stands out with Trump now, and it’s hard to see him tripping up in the earlier rounds.
That said, those early rounds have been where Trump has been vulnerable in Triple Crown events in the past, and he was a round-one casualty here in 2023, before turning in a ragged, tired performance in the quarter-finals last year.
As with Robertson, and certainly last year O’Sullivan, I think Trump’s more recent World Championship chances might have been compromised by the sheer volume of success he has enjoyed all season, every season. It’s hard to keep going to the well time after time.
Interestingly, Trump has taken steps to try and counter that this term. He skipped the Scottish Open and Welsh Open, an unusual move for such a big supporter of the Home Nations events, and his victory in York demonstrated a real desire on his part to focus on the big ones.
I personally find the argument over whether Trump can be classed an all-time great before he becomes a multiple world champion disrespectful. I suspect he will achieve it anyway, putting the tiresome debate to bed once and for all. But let’s be clear, this is one of the greatest to ever play the sport. You only have to watch an hour of Trump in full flight to see that.
But as for the next 17 days, Trump is an awfully short price, irrespective of the draw, with any remaining scraps of 4/1 all but gone. That 7/2 doesn’t appeal to me, given his rocky recent record in Sheffield and that this tournament has thrown up so many shock results in recent years.
Higgins out to rewrite history
I won’t be backing Higgins at 14/1, either, with that Tour Championship trend too strong to ignore, and the feeling that approaching his 50th birthday, the veteran Scot, who has danced every dance in recent weeks, might not have the reserves to keep going for another two and a half weeks.
UK Championship runner-up Hawkins might fall into that same category, though it’s hard to knock his excellent returns this year, and how well he played until Higgins beat him in the Tour Championship semi-finals.
The fact he’s had so many bites of the Crucible cherry before and not been able to get over the line does temper enthusiasm for betting him, however, and I think there are younger men in the bottom half of the draw who have more upside.
2023 winner Brecel is clearly a fascinating contender, and a big price, too, at 40/1. His form over the last two years has been largely moderate, but he reached a major final in Saudi Arabia last season, and has always been the type to blow hot and cold.
What is not in question is his touch of genius when things click into place and he's in the mood. The only time he has ever won a match at the Crucible came in 2023 when he won five and blitzed his way to glory.
Mercurial, enigmatic, frustrating – there are so many adjectives we could use to describe Brecel. But if he gets on a roll again, anything is possible.
Classy O'Connor can shine again
He’s not for me, but I will stick with JOE O’CONNOR at 66/1 despite a tough last-32 draw against Higgins.
I’ve always had O’Connor down as a likely type for the World Championship and his win over Selby here last year was hopefully the start of things to come. A solid match-player with a brilliant temperament, he’s learnt plenty from fellow Leicester man Selby, and to some degree, his game mirrors that of the four-time world champion.
O’Connor has taken another step forward this term, reaching the quarter-finals of the Welsh Open where he wasn’t quite able to capitalise on the good early lead he built over Carter. Still, there were plenty of positive signs there in short-format matches that have never really promised to suit his game ideally.
And at the World Open, O’Connor really came into his own. He knocked in big break after big break to beat Trump 5-2, before making three centuries in a 5-1 mauling of Masters champion Shaun Murphy. Revenge was extracted on Carter with another dominant performance in the semi-finals, but he would go on to lose 10-6 to Higgins in the final.
In truth, you could argue that O’Connor was the best player that week, but he didn’t settle early in the final and Higgins made him pay, surging into a 6-1 lead and nursing that advantage to victory after O’Connor had finally come to life.
Like with Pang, those experiences will have done O’Connor plenty of good and I’m sure that somewhere down the line, he will reap the benefits. A relatively late-starter, O’Connor’s best days are still to come, and the Crucible appeals as the most likely place for that to happen.
Rewinding 24 months to Jones’ quarter-final finish, followed by his remarkable run to the final a year later, we are reminded that this is a tournament that lends itself to those types of stories and deep runs from relative unknowns. With respect to Jones, O’Connor and Pang both boast stronger credentials than Jones did in 2023, or even last year, and to my mind, both are equally capable, if not more so.
It's also worth noting that O’Connor sharpened up his game with an excellent 10-7 win over Jackson Page on Judgement Day. That match was played to a high standard, hardly surprising given that Page had knocked in two maximum breaks in the previous round. That form has a strong look to it.
His opening match against Higgins is clearly a tough one, but he has beaten the Scot in three of their nine career meetings to date, most notably in a Welsh Open quarter-final in 2019. He won’t be overawed by the occasion, as his last visit here showed, and nor should he be.
With my own reasons for opposing Higgins already stated, I’ll chance O’Connor at 66/1, with the view that the draw could really open up for him if he can first claim the scalp of another Crucible giant.
In more recent years, the Crucible has become a place where giants have been slayed, so taking a chance on a couple of improving operators who are sharp from the qualifiers does appeal.
They join 2010 champion Robertson on the staking plan for a World Championship renewal that has so much intrigue to it, not least because what many of us want most is to see the biggest giant in the history of the sport play snooker at the Crucible one more time.
Posted at 1255 BST on 17/04/25
ALSO READ: Neal Foulds' top 16 profiles
Related snooker links
- Richard Mann's World Championship outright preview
- World Championship: Top 16 player profiles
- Where are the young snooker players
- Perfect Snooker Player
- Snooker's GOAT: O'Sullivan by the numbers
- O'Sullivan's Triple Crown timeline
- Watch all the Crucible 147 breaks
- Should the worlds stay at the Crucible?
- History of 147 breaks
- Ronnie O'Sullivan's 147 breaks
- O'Sullivan: One of a kind
- History of snooker's number ones
- Best players never to win a world title
- Crucible memories: Ronnie's finest hour
- Crucible memories: Higgins denies Trump
- Crucible memories: White a People's Champion
- Crucible memories: Johnson stuns Davis
- Crucible memories: Foulds' dream debut
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