Graham Cunningham looks ahead to today's Royal Ascot card and provides his thoughts on the action.
Praying for a payday as low road proves best
Random thoughts as we head into the fifth and final round.
A 25 poke leads home 28, 20 and 66 chances in the Comm Cup. Wow, that was a weird segment.
Jockeys drawn high deserting Thursday’s stand rail golden highway to head for the centre in the Sandringham. Wow, that was even weirder.
Aidan O’B has saddled 15 Royal Ascot winners since Charlie A sent out his last one with Naval Crown on this day in 2022.
Oisin Murphy has ridden in six huge field handicaps on the straight course this week. His form figures are 611161 - and the 6 on Miss Nightfall might have been a 1 with better luck.
There’s nothing like a morning suit to make the stiff shirted gadgie wearing it think you should give way on the pavement if you aren’t similarly attired.
The risible Jacob Rees-Mogg looks even more like a haunted Victorian pencil in person than he does on telly.
And salute to the dressed-to-kill Cumbrian gal on the train who looked a million dollars while telling her pals “I only use PL (payday loan) companies for big stuff like school uniforms.”
Ethical Diamond provided a handy ray of sunshine on a plain enough punting Friday, with Oolong Poobong and Miss Nightfall the ones that got away in that silly Sandingham.
But the first four days are in the books now. Saturday is a sweltering sellout with a chance to boost the P&L – and avoid the need to reach for the PL option.
QUEEN ALEXANDRA STAKES (6.10)
Matthew 20:16: ‘So the last shall be first, and the first last.’
Yes, an ancient grinding affair that takes over five minutes to run isn’t everyone’s idea of the best way to bring the curtain down on Britain’s biggest Flat meeting and some would like to see it given the flick.
But call me old fashioned, a set weights contest featuring numerous no hopers, several suspect stayers and a hot favourite who’s never raced on fast ground makes much more punting appeal than fiendish 30-runner handicaps where the effect of the draw is a total guess-up.
Yes, Sober represents a man who has won this four times, but his French form has a few whiskers on it and his first run for Willie saw him driven right out to master a middling Gordon Elliott horse while receiving 6lb in a Killarney novice hurdle.
In short, I’m happy to take a fair crack at him because SAMUI and TROOPER BISDEE have much more in their favour than the early odds suggest.
Samui finished a fine second in a hot staying handicap off a mark of 102 at the Ebor Festival last summer and proved he’s still bang up to that level when running on well for a fine third over his minimum trip (2800m) behind handicap blot French Master and vastly-improved Caballo De Mar in Tuesday’s Copper Horse Handicap.
The case for Trooper Bisdee isn’t as persuasive at first glance but it shouldn’t be forgotten that Sir Mark Prescott’s gelding went off favourite for the Northumberland Plate last year after a commanding Pontefract success over two and a quarter miles.
The Trooper will relish this extreme distance after blowing the cobwebs away with a keen-going effort at Goodwood, while Samui has a fine chance at these weights and is another who looks cut from the right cloth for marathon trips.
One of them is 4-1 this morning and the other is trading at 14 across the board. I make them 5-2 and 8-1 chances at best and, although the sun may be getting to me at the end of a long five days, this historic finale has the look of one of the best betting races of the entire week.
CHESHAM STAKES (2.30)
No prizes for guessing that Charlie and Aidan will dominate the market with runaway Newmarket winner Treanmor and Moments of Joy, who found plenty at Leopardstown despite looking very green.
TREANMOR will be hard to keep out of the Quinella spots but this doesn’t look deep by Ascot standards and THESECRETADVERSARY – who showed likeable zest in front until worn down by the O’Brien-trained Italy at Leopardstown – is one to keep an eye on.
Fozzy Stack’s colt can go well at a fair price here and VENETIAN LACE, who beat a subsequent winner with authority at Chelmsford on her debut, is the other to mix in for Quinella chasers.
HARDWICKE STAKES (3.05)
They’ve been running this venerable contest for a century without a seven-year-old winning and Charlie Appleby’s four big guns have all failed to fire this week.
Add in the fact that Rebel’s Romance had to work harder than expected despite getting the saloon passage in a Yorkshire Cup dawdle and the door is open for another unpenalised G1 winner to shake him up.
AL RIFFA’s two wins at elite level have come in softish G1s but he ran a belter to bustle up City Of Troy in last year’s Coral-Eclipse. This return to 2400m looks ideal judged on the way he rallied for fourth in Sosie’s Prix Ganay and, with blinkers replacing cheekpieces, this looks a big day for him.
QUEEN ELIZABETH II JUBILEE STAKES (3.40)
Please don’t let draw shenanigans affect a Saturday showpiece that features a heady blend of high-class international sprinters.
Timeform have just 3lb between five leading players from Britain, France and Japan but a split stakes play (and maybe a small Quinella) involving SATONO REVE and FLORA OF BERMUDA looks a fair call.
Japanese sensei Noriyuki Hori has excelled on the global stage in HK and Australia and SATONO REVE looks at the peak of his powers after chasing home the world’s best sprinter Ka Ying Rising in the Chairman’s Sprint Prize at Sha Tin.
Joao Moreira will be looking to stalk freewheeling Frenchie Lazzat from gate 16 and a bold bid looks assured, but FLORA OF BERMUDA is another with a tempting profile.
Wathnan’s James Doyle was always going to side with Lazzat after his runaway Chantilly win but Flora – named after Bermuda’s first Olympic Gold winner Flora Duffy – has come on a bundle since finishing fourth behind that rival at Deauville last August and caught the eye travelling powerfully when pipped by Inisherrin in the Duke of York on her reappearance.
BEST OF THE REST (4.20, 5.00, 5.35 and 6.10)
No strong views in the Jersey save that strong-travelling COMANCHE BRAVE ought to be hard to keep out of the money.
The unexposed COMPLETELY RANDOM looks a live longshot to pair with market leaders More Thunder and Jaraaf in a wide-open Wokingham, while SERAPH GABRIEL and GLEN TO GLEN look a reasonable pair against the field in a Golden Gates that is loaded with potential improvers.
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