- Tom Carnduff's Fußball am Freitag: P/L: +14.15pts | ROI: 101% | Staked: 14pts | Returned: 28.15pts
Football betting tips: Bundesliga
2pts Over 3.5 goals at 19/10 (General)
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Akin to the Jacksonville Jaguars in the NFL, perhaps Union Berlin are trying to build up their UK fanbase.
Die Eisernen featured in last week's column - a 3-1 victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach landing a 4/5 winner - and their trip to Werder Bremen gives the free-to-air audience another chance to watch them in action.
It's also Werder Bremen's second Friday appearance of the season following their 4-0 hammering by Bayern Munich around a month ago. The good news is that their games usually deliver entertainment.
They've played out a 3-3 draw with Bayer Leverkusen and a 2-2 draw at Heidenheim in the opening exchanges of the campaign. They've also had three other contests where at least one side has scored four.
Let's hope then, from our perspective as neutrals, this thrilling trend continues on the banks of the Weser river.
Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin
- Kick-off: Friday, 19:30 BST
- TV: BBC iPlayer, Bundesliga YouTube
- Live odds, form and stats
Last week's column included numbers which highlights the Bundesliga's high-scoring nature.
Eight of the nine games which took place last week saw three or more goals scored - Wolfsburg and St. Pauli were the only sides able to keep clean sheets.
Prices of 19/10 and 15/8 are available on OVER 3.5 GOALS which looks appealing for a few reasons.
One of those is the point outlined above. From the 63 games played in Germany's top-flight so far, 65% have gone over 2.5 with 43% seeing over 3.5.
And Bremen have been playing their part in those statistics. Five of their seven outings have returned at least four goals scored.
For Union, they've seen this as a winner in three of their seven but one of those was the away win over Eintracht Frankfurt. It also came in last Friday.
A big part behind this will be the respective defences of the two sides and their inability to limit the opposition. The underlying numbers are a cause for concern.
Expected goals against (or xGA) is a good metric for understanding how teams limit their opponents. The bigger the number, the more chances you're giving to the team you're playing.
In the Bundesliga, both Bremen and Union sit in the top three. The hosts are averaging 1.85 xGA per game; the visitors only ever so slightly less at 1.84.
The attacks sit around mid-table in the numbers measuring chances created but while the defences are performing as they are, goals always feel like a possibility.
Odds correct at 1145 BST (22/10/25)
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