- Tom Carnduff's Fußball on Freitag: P/L: +12.55pts | ROI: 105% | Staked: 12pts | Returned: 24.55pts
Football betting tips: Bundesliga
2pts Over 2.5 goals at 4/5 (General)
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While we may be returning from an international break with a contest involving two teams at the wrong end of the Bundesliga table, we can't dismiss its potential given some of the outings so far.
Take Borussia Mönchengladbach, a side who found themselves 5-0 down at half-time of their recent meeting with Eintracht Frankfurt, only for that to finish 4-6 with a late flurry of goals.
That came a week after Union Berlin's own thriller against the same opponent - a 4-3 win for the side featuring here after being 4-1 up prior to the hour mark.
Huh, maybe it's a Frankfurt thing then. But Mönchengladbach have conceded four times in two of their last four, with six or more match goals in two of Union's own previous four.
Quite what we can expect on Friday is uncertain yet we can hold onto a belief that maybe, just maybe, it could become a bit silly.
Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
- Kick-off: Friday, 19:30 BST
- TV: BBC iPlayer, Bundesliga YouTube
- Live odds, form and stats
For that to happen, Mönchengladbach need to show more in attack. Yes, they may have netted four in that previously-mentioned game but it's easy (well, never easy, but perhaps easier) to do so when you're already 6-0 down.
It's the defensive element which is perhaps the most appealing route to explore. They may well have drawn 0-0 with Freiburg last time out but we can hardly be surprised by a game possessing little action following on from such a significant thrashing.
At 4/5 with a few bookmakers, I'm willing to side with OVER 2.5 GOALS.
We could point towards Mönchengladbach's start handing them five games against those sat in the top half at the October international break. The one game against a team not in that group ended in a 4-0 defeat to Werder Bremen.
And then we have an Union side ranking third in the expected goals against (xGA) metric. It's partly why four of their six outings have gone over the 2.5 marker.
It's ultimately a high-scoring league too, which is why my eye is always drawn to this bet when the odds are decent enough.
Over the past three full seasons, the Bundesliga has seen over 2.5 goals in 61% of games, compared to 58% in the Premier League and 48% in both LaLiga and Serie A.
It's no surprise we've started in similar fashion then, with Germany's top-flight going at 61% in the current campaign, dropping down to 53% in England, 49% in Spain and 42% in Italy.
That doesn't mean every single game will see it of course but at 4/5, and given the defences involved, I'm happy enough to take it.
Odds correct at 1220 BST (15/10/25)
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