I wrote in my preview of the Wimbledon men’s singles about how there was only a small pool of potential champions.
The opposite is the case in the ladies’ draw which looks quite a puzzle to solve.
Some will suggest the obvious choice is at the top of the market.
Aryna Sabalenka is the world number one and has the power game which traditionally delivers results on the grasscourts.
Yet she’s failed to reach the Wimbledon final since first coming here in 2017, often being edged out by a player able to find a little higher level on the day.
Somewhat worryingly, that’s also been the case in the two Grand Slam finals so far in 2025, Sabalenka losing to Madison Keys at January’s Australian Open and Coco Gauff at the recent French Open.
In both matches there have been signs of her former mental frailty returning when the pressure has been applied.
At 3/1, she’s too short for me.
Of course, this is a tournament which has produced two big-priced winners in the past two years.
Last season, Barbora Krejcikova claimed the title having been sent off at 225/1. In 2023, her compatriot Marketa Vondrousova also won as a big outsider.
In what looks an open field, it’s more than tempting to try to find a player (or two) who could follow in the Czech pair’s footsteps.
I’m going to target the weaker quarters which, for me, are Q2 and Q3, headed up by Jasmine Paolini and Jessica Pegula respectively.
Let’s start in Q3 where Pegula will be well fancied following her warm-up title in Bad Homburg on Saturday. However, she’s got just one quarter-final on her Wimbledon record and has never beaten a top-40 player in SW19.
Confidence will be up, but I prefer to look elsewhere.
I’m also keen to swerve Mirra Andreeva, a rising star of the WTA Tour but one with limited experience on grass.
She’s gone 1-2 on it so far this season and lost a set 6-0 to Magdalena Frech in Berlin.
Krejcikova is in this section but withdrew in Eastbourne only a few days ago.
Given all this, I’m prepared to take a chance on EMMA NAVARRO.
This is the world number 10 yet the American is out at 70/1 for the title. That’s too big.
Given the last sentence, you’d perhaps expect her grasscourt record to be underwhelming but that’s not the case.
She was a quarter-finalist here 12 months ago, beating Gauff, and has twice reached the semis in Bad Homburg.
OK, this season hasn’t been her best but grasccourt warm-up results have shown some promising signs.
She beat a decent grasscourter in Beatriz Haddad Maia at Queen’s Club, while last week victories over Marta Kostyuk and former world number one Naomi Oaska were achieved before Navarro took a set off eventual champion Pegula.
While Navarro isn’t a former Grand Slam finalist – Krejcikova and Vondrousova both were – she did make the last four of the US Open less than a year ago so has experienced a deep run at a major. I don’t think she’ll be fazed, particularly given the section of the draw she’s landed in.
Former champs Petra Kvitova and Krejcikova could both be in her path to the last 16 but those two have both spent the past few days nursing injuries and you get the impression they will just be happy to make the start line, especially Kvitova given she’s announced this will be her last Wimbledon.
Andreeva and Pegula could follow but it would be no surprise if they weren’t around in week two and I’m happy to give Navarro a try at the price.
Over the Q2, Paolini isn’t the same form of last year when she unexpectedly managed to transfer claycourt form to the grass; she was crushed by Swiatek in Bad Homburg the other day.
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