Wimbledon outright betting tips: Preview and best bets for tennis grand slam

Tennis betting tips: Wimbledon men's singles

1.5pts e.w. Novak Djokovic to win Wimbledon at 13/2 (General)

0.5pt e.w. Jiri Lehecka to win Wimbledon at 80/1 (Sky Bet, Star Sports)

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Wimbledon, men’s singles

• All England Club, Wimbledon, London, UK

When NOVAK DJOKOVIC exited the French Open earlier this month, he took a long, emotional look around Court Philippe Chatrier as he left the stage.

Unsurprisingly he was asked about it afterwards and could give no guarantees he’d be back, admitting it could have been his last match at the tournament.

By the same token, this could therefore be the swansong for Djokovic at Wimbledon.

In my book the greatest player of all time, I’m not the only one who will feel the Serb’s achievements, certainly at Wimbledon, haven’t been given the recognition they deserve.

Djokovic is a seven-time champion at the All England Club – that’s the same number of titles as Pete Sampras and just one shy of Roger Federer’s record. He’d love nothing more than to draw level with the Swiss in two weeks’ time. In addition, the last final here not to feature the 38-year-old was back in 2017 (when Federer beat Marin Cilic).

Now, admittedly I’ve talked down Djokovic’s chances at plenty of tournaments this season and it’s hard to suggest he’s playing better than ever.

But the level he’s produced for much of 2025 has been high and now he heads onto the grass, a surface which remains so hard to conquer, even for some of the best in the sport.

One factor that has made Djokovic so good on the grass is his movement, in particular the way he’s been able to transfer his sliding ability over from the clay. It has allowed him to get to many a wide ball that otherwise would have been a winner, while the control in his movement has also meant he’s been able to change direction better than almost anyone.

My view has long been that the pool of potential winners is smaller here than at any of the other Grand Slams but Djokovic is very much one of those big fish in the small pond.

He’s been focusing on the biggest events for a long time now, so I’m not too concerned by some of the defeats suffered in the lower-level tournaments.

Going back 12 months, it’s worth remembering that almost everyone assumed that a knee injury sustained at the French Open would rule Djokovic out of Wimbledon.

Yet not only did he play, but he progressed, pretty serenely, to the final. Once there, Carlos Alcaraz proved too good by some margin but you have to say Djokovic is in better shape, both physically and mentally, this time around.

A few weeks later, Djokovic took his revenge on the young Spaniard, defeating him to win Olympic gold at Paris 2024; the main target of his season was achieved.

This year began with an impressive semi-final run at the Australian Open where Alcaraz was beaten with a superb display in the last eight. However, Djokovic was injured during that match and was unable to complete his semi-final.

In Miami, Djokovic reached the final without losing a set and while his defeat to Jakub Mensik was something of a shock, it came in two tie-breaks to a player who was totally in the groove on serve.

After a slow start on the clay, Djokovic won the title in Geneva and then eased through the draw at Roland Garros, beating Alex Zverev in the quarter-finals before Jannik Sinner was just that bit better in the last four.

Some will feel that Wimbledon loss to Alcaraz and the French Open defeat to Sinner – both in straight sets – sum up where Djokovic sits in the new pecking order now. The world’s top two having a gap between themselves and the chasing pack.

It’s an assessment I largely agree with but I go back to the surface – the grass certainly narrows that gap and, when it comes to Sinner, possibly closes it.

Notably, Djokovic and Sinner are in the same half of the draw and I therefore feel the Serb has a strong chance of making yet another final in SW19.

Sinner is yet to conquer the grass. He has just a single career title on the surface so far, has gone beyond the last eight here only once and is yet to reach the final.

The Italian clearly improved his claycourt level this season and I don’t doubt he’ll do the same on grass going forward but the fact he stepped onto it saying he would “see how it goes this year” suggested the confidence of other surfaces isn’t entirely there.

The other issue coming in here is how much psychological damage was done at the recent French Open where he became the first man in the Open Era to blow three championship points in a Grand Slam final. It meant he lost to Alcaraz for the fifth time in a row at tour level.

Sinner insists that match is firmly “in the past” and I suspect he’s been with the sports psychologist in recent days.

However, in Halle, he admitted the loss had caused him “sleepless nights” and, after losing in Germany to Alexander Bublik, said that “it wasn’t easy to be competitive” there.

In short, I’d expect Djokovic to have a considerably better chance of beating Sinner on Centre Court than Chatrier and I think there’s some each-way value in backing Djokovic in the outright betting given he’s on offer at 13/2.

Alcaraz is the big problem, not only for Djokovic, but for the other 126 players in the field.

He undoubtedly deserves his position as favourite, arriving at the two-time defending champion and on a run of 18 successive victories, his last loss coming against Holger Rune in Barcelona when he was clearly carrying an injury.

Alcaraz has no real weaknesses in his game. He possesses big weapons, is prepared to mix things up – he has a great drop shot – and is among the best volleyers.

He looks in a pretty decent part of the draw and I wasn’t far away from backing him, even at 13/10.

But there’s a part of me which rarely wants to pull the trigger when it comes to short prices like that – we’ve seen many times before that it only takes one great serving day on this surface to give someone a real shot at an upset.

Felix Auger-Aliassime and Jiri Lehecka are players capable of causing such problems in the fourth quarter.

If you really fancy Alcaraz at that price, I certainly won’t put you off, but I’m going to leave him be.

As already suggested, I’m not convinced of there being a surprise winner.

My theory has been well and truly backed up over the past 20 years or so – I’d say that the last winner at anything approaching what you’d consider big odds was Goran Ivanisevic back in 2001.

There have been a few dark horses to have reached the final – think Matteo Berrettini, Kevin Anderson and Cilic in the past decade.

If one of Alcaraz and Sinner (or Djokovic) aren’t going to make the final, who could take advantage?

Well, I was hoping that man might be Berrettini, having put him up at the start of the season as an antepost tip at 80/1.

The Italian has a super grasscourt record but it was a bet very much based on him being fully fit and after a strong start to the year, sadly he got injured just at the wrong time and, as was the case 12 months ago, looks to be coming in too undercooked to genuinely challenge.

The same can be said of his compatriot, Lorenzo Musetti. He’s been excellent in 2025 but was injured in the French Open semi-final and hasn’t played since. The fact he withdrew from an exhibition match on Friday has to be a major concern.

Some will be happy to back Halle champion Alexander Bublik at 50/1, although I’m not sure veteran followers of the Kazakh will be among that group.

There’s no doubt Bublik has been playing some great tennis over the past couple of months. He beat Sinner en route to the Halle title and that followed a mesmeric display against Jack Draper at the French Open. The pair could meet again in round three here.

However, the latter win was followed by him struggling to win a game against Sinner in the following round and that rather sums up Bublik.

His ceiling is very high but his troughs are deeper than virtually anyone – mentally he drifts away far too often when the chips are down.

Yes, Bublik’s game translates well to grass – big first serve, go-for-broke groundstrokes, elements of surprise (he likes a drop shot and will throw in the odd underarm serve).

But the second serve can be vulnerable – it certainly produces too many double faults – while his tendency to go ‘all in’ at times can be self-destructive.

I’ve never been convinced that Bublik is capable of winning a Slam which involves keeping those bad moments to a minimum across seven, best-of-five-sets matches.

Quarter three may be where some punters turn in search of value.

It looks competitive with Taylor Fritz having been on good form on grass in recent weeks, winning the title in Stuttgart and also making the final in Eastbourne (at time of writing he’d yet to face Jenson Brooksby).

He’s also made two quarter-finals in SW19 in the past.

Fritz could well have a good run but he does admittedly have a tricky draw with Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Gabriel Diallo, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Daniil Medvedev and Zverev potentially his route to the last four.

The American is capable of winning all those matches and he could start favourite in them all, too, but I’m not really wanting to back anyone each-way in this half of the draw given the presence of Alcaraz in Q4.

Czech mate

Perhaps the angle is to enter the quarter betting but Fritz looks short enough in that at 11/2 given his draw.

Medvedev may also fancy his chances given he’s made the semis of Wimbledon in each of the last two years. However, I just remain unconvinced by the Russian and can’t back him at 4/1.

First up, he prefers the hardcourts but secondly it’s been some time since he was truly at his best.

There’s been no ATP title since May 2023, while he’s now lost eight of his last 10 matches against top-10 opponents and 13 of the last 17 against top-20 foes.

The one player I think could be worth backing as an each-way chance is JIRI LEHECKA.

He was very impressive on the lawns of Queen’s Club where he beat Alex de Minaur and Jack Draper en route to the final and then pushed Alcaraz to a deciding set.

The serve was working very well that week and that is always a key to success on this surface.

The Czech is 24-13 for the season and has shown a propensity for the faster surfaces, winning in Brisbane and making the last 16 of the Australian Open, on top of that Queen’s run.

Lehecka missed last year’s grasscourt season due to injury but it’s worth remembering he made the last 16 on his last Wimbledon appearance, beating Tommy Paul before being forced to retire against Medvedev.

If there’s one player in Q4 capable of toppling Alcaraz, then it is arguably Lehecka – he wasn’t that far away a couple of weeks ago.

So, if you want a longer-odds shot on your coupon, consider the Czech at 80/1.

Posted at 1650 BST on 28/06/25

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