Ben Linfoot answers 10 questions ahead of QIPCO British Champions Day and finds himself striking a bet in the Fillies & Mares Stakes at a double-figure price.
1. What’s the significance of the course switch for Champions Day?
With the ground at Ascot ‘heavy, waterlogged in places’ on the outer round track, contingency plans are afoot. With more rain forecast it’s now looking likely that the three races run on the round course; the Champion Stakes, Fillies & Mares and Long Distance Cup, will now be staged on the inner track, better known as the hurdles course in winter, where no watering throughout the summer means it is riding ‘good to soft, soft in places’. Although the published race conditions state that a decision regarding the move can be left until as late as Saturday morning, clerk of the course Chris Stickels has indicated that a final call will probably be made on Wednesday. Common sense should prevail, then, as a Saturday switch would be hugely unfair on the connections of horses participating on the round course as well as the punting public. Indeed, the participation of this year’s poster boy, Stradivarius, could hinge on the choice of track, while the chance of the Champion Stakes favourite Addeybb looks likely to fluctuate depending on ground conditions…
2. How is Addeybb a best-price 3/1 favourite for the Champion Stakes?
Because he’s an out-and-out mudlark who looked in great nick last time. He’s also got a convincing Royal Ascot win to his name following his Wolferton Stakes victory in June. But the problem with Addeybb is that he has been soundly trounced in two starts in Group One company and on Saturday he’s likely to bump into a handful of proven top-level horses. Looking back on his Group One flops, he was beaten in the 2018 Lockinge Stakes despite being in great form. He’d won the Lincoln and the Group Two bet365 Mile at Sandown with ease that spring and was consequently 7/2 for the Newbury showpiece. He may well have fared badly with the draw and the good to firm ground wasn’t ideal, either, but he was beaten almost 10 lengths which was disappointing. His second A-league reverse came in last year’s Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on Champions Day. He was coming off a break, having not been seen since his Lockinge flop, but he had gone well fresh when winning the Lincoln and he did have his favoured soft ground. Still, he trailed home a 22-length 12th. He comes into the Champion Stakes in good form this time around, but if the track switch is made his heavy ground exploits become less relevant and skinny quotes as short as 9/4 look dodgy considering his previous attempts at the highest level.
3. If not Addeybb, then who?
It’s staggering that Aidan O’Brien has never won the Champion Stakes, in either incarnation at Newmarket or Ascot. You couldn’t say it’s been a priority for him this season as both of his main contenders; Japan and Magical, ran in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe less than two weeks ago and it remains to be seen just who does turn up from Ballydoyle. Both horses had tough races in France, so a late trainer’s call looks likely, depending on just who has come out of Longchamp the better. If Paris hasn’t taken the edge off them, either would have an outstanding chance on their best form of delivering O’Brien that so far elusive first Champion Stakes victory. If not O’Brien then John Gosden comes into the picture. He’s won the last two Champion Stakes thanks to Cracksman but his chances this year are of the lower key variety. Coronet has won her last two races in France, both at Group One level, and did so last time out in the mud at Deauville. Second to Magical in last year’s Fillies & Mares, she’s likely to get the assistance of Ascot magician Frankie Dettori (11 wins from 40 rides at Ascot at 28 per cent in 2019) given Mehdaayih disappointed in the Prix de l’Opera on Arc weekend. And finally there’s the supplemented Fox Tal from Andrew Balding’s yard, a fascinating son of Sea The Stars who has only had five career runs. If he handles a softer surface, he’s a player as well.
4. Is the plunge on The Revenant justified?
He was 25/1 for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on the morning of October 5, but then The Revenant won the Prix Daniel Wildenstein by four-and-a-half lengths in very soft ground at Longchamp and the Champions Day plunge began. Cut to 16s and 14s and 12s in the aftermath of his victory in Paris, things began to snowball once his Champions Day target was confirmed in post-race briefings and his price has contracted ever since, the Ascot ground and weather forecast contributing significantly to the continued slashing from bookmakers. Now generally 5/2 and as short as 9/4, the gamble is understandable in a division lacking a superstar, but there comes a point where you would think the weight of support has to stop and we are surely at the line now if not past it. The ex-Hugo Palmer-trained horse is untested at the top level, while the form of his Daniel Wildenstein win looks slightly suspect with one of his main rivals Impulsif seemingly failing to handle conditions.
5. So, is there one at a price in the QEII?
There has been interesting support for Aidan O’Brien’s Magna Grecia on Tuesday and he’s into 5/1 in places from 12s earlier in the day. The 2000 Guineas winner has only raced once post-Newmarket and that was on good to firm ground in the Irish equivalent at the Curragh, and while he hasn’t been tested on softer ground conditions the son of Invincible Spirit could well thrive on such a surface. He’s clearly a player on his Classic-winning form and it seems Champions Day plans have been firmed up. However, in what looks a wide-open race the 33/1 about Happy Power is worth considering. Andrew Balding’s Dark Angel colt was blown away by Benbatl last time out but he’s a different beast on soft ground and is extremely progressive when isolating his outings on such a surface. His last two runs on soft have yielded victories in a Newbury handicap by five lengths off a mark of 93 and a comfortable win in the Listed Ganton Stakes at York, so he’s a dangerous lurker in the mud. Balding won a Sussex Stakes in similar circumstances with Here Comes When and Happy Power wasn’t beaten far by Too Darn Hot in this year’s renewal of the Goodwood race, so when his trainer says (watch the video below) that this has been his target all year you have to sit up and take notice.
6. Is Stradivarius vulnerable in the Long Distance Cup?
A 10-race winning run spanning two seasons has thrown up a variety of different challenges to brilliant stayer Stradivarius and he’s had the answers every single time. However, his last defeat came in the Long Distance Cup and his least impressive victory last season was in this race, too, his one-and-a-half length verdict over Thomas Hobson coming in workmanlike fashion. Another superb season has followed and he did win the Gold Cup at this track in soft ground, so it’s very difficult to pick holes in him from a form book point of view. He does look vulnerable at this time of year, though, at the end of a long and tough season in which he’s successfully navigated over 10-and-a-half miles without being beaten once again. John Gosden has said he’ll walk the course on Saturday morning before confirming his participation, but organisers will be desperate for him to run and, having moved the Long Distance Cup to the middle of the card, you sense the track will be moved as well – and that could be enough to see this star attraction take his chance.
7. What’s the angle in the Champion Sprint?
With July Cup winner Ten Sovereigns attempting to climb Everest in Sydney I feared the Champion Sprint might be lacking in star quality this year but it’s shaping up into a very good renewal indeed. In fact, the last three winners of the race are taking their chance thanks to Librisa Breeze, The Tin Man and Sands Of Mali lining up and none of that trio are in the top five in the betting which showcases the strength of depth in the race. Advertise has solid form claims thanks to his Commonwealth Cup and Prix Maurice de Gheest victories, with trainer Martyn Meade bullish that he’ll handle softer ground, while Kevin Ryan's Hello Youmzain is proven in the mud and comes into this race on the back of a Group One win in the Haydock Sprint Cup. Irish improver Make A Challenge and Prix de la Foret winner One Master also have conditions to suit, while Roger Varian’s Cape Byron (see trainer interview in video below) is unbeaten in three runs at Ascot this season thanks to wins in the Victoria Cup, Wokingham and Bengough Stakes. All this explains why Group One winner Mabs Cross is 33/1, yet she’s a fascinating contender herself on her first crack at six furlongs. All in all, it’s set to be a ferocious start to the afternoon’s proceedings.
8. Can Dermot Weld come away with another Champions Day winner?
I think he might just do so as his Tarnawa looks a bet in the Fillies & Mares Stakes at double-figure prices ranging from 10/1 to as big as 12s. This is a race that could cut up as it’s hard to see John Gosden running both Star Catcher and Anapurna, while last year’s winner and clear form pick Magical has other options with the Champion Stakes seeming a most likely port of call at this stage. Those uncertainties immediately make Tarnawa of interest at double-figure prices as she looks a likely participant and Dermot Weld has a great record on Champions Day from light representation. He won the 2012 Fillies & Mares with Sapphire, the Long Distance Cup the same year with Rite Of Passage, the same race two years later with Forgotten Rules and then the 2015 Champion Stakes with Fascinating Rock. Tarnawa is highly progressive, winning four races from six starts this season, her only flop coming in the Investec Oaks. She’s bounced back since then, winning at Group Three and Group Two level at Cork and the Curragh, including on soft ground in the Give Thanks Stakes where she beat Delphinia further and more easily than Anapurna did in France (and she gave her 3lb that day). She’s got gears and the market is currently underestimating her chance for my money.