After landing a profit in the last two rounds of the Shanghai Masters, Andy Schooler returns to preview the quarter-final action.
Tennis betting tips: Shanghai Masters
1pt Zizou Bergs to win over 9.5 games v Novak Djokovic at 17/20 (William Hill)
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Holger Rune v Valentin Vacherot (Thu, 0800 BST)
Rune has been among those to criticise the “brutal” conditions in Shanghai and, having been handed another day match, you can see why people might choose to oppose him here.
Vacherot is enjoying a dream week, or rather two. He started in qualifying so this will be his seventh match in Shanghai. Four of the previous six have gone to a third set so you have to wonder if he’s running out of gas at this stage, especially given the heat and humidity he’s had to face.
It’s going back up above 30C on Thursday. Throw in the humidity and it will feel more than that.
I’d expect Rune’s extra quality to shine through here and a straight-sets win is tempting at around even money.
However, I can’t be sure how either man will react to the conditions at this point so I’m leaving this alone from a betting point of view.
Zizou Bergs v Novak Djokovic (Thu, 1130 BST)
It shouldn’t be too surprising that the 38-year-old Djokovic has also struggled with the conditions in Shanghai.
He vomited against Yannick Hanfmann and looked extremely tired at times against Jaume Munar, a match which also saw him have treatment on an ankle injury.
It’s hard to know for sure when it comes to the Serb - maybe there was some rope-a-Djok in play again - but there’s every chance he’s not 100 per cent physically for this match.
If that’s the case, Bergs is capable of taking advantage in some way.
I remember writing on this site recently about how Bergs’ performances hadn’t translated into results but the Belgian has put that right with his run in Shanghai.
Sebastian Korda, Casper Ruud, Francisco Cerundolo and Gabriel Diallo have all been beaten to earn a crack at Djokovic for the first time.
For all his physical struggles, the Serb has only lost serve twice this week so Bergs will need to find a way on return.
However, he can take confidence from his meeting with Carlos Alcaraz in Tokyo where he enjoyed plenty of success on second-serve return, winning 61% of points.
Bergs to win a set is around evens but preference is to back him in the player games market.
Here, his line is set at 9.5 and backing the overs has potential.
Djokovic has conceded 10+ games in every round so far and it should be remembered he dropped sets in four of his six matches at the US Open not too long ago.
Arthur Rinderknech v Felix Auger-Aliassime (Fri)
Rinderknech’s good form has continued in Shanghai with victories over Alex Zverev and Jiri Lehecka in the last two rounds.
However, I suspect the run stops here.
Auger-Aliassime has won both previous meetings between the pair. They both came earlier this season and Rinderknech failed to win a set on each occasion.
Perhaps most telling is the number of break points created in those matches – Auger-Aliassime 21, Rinderknech 2.
However, it’s not just the head-to-head that is in my thinking here.
Auger-Aliassime was excellent in his victory over Lorenzo Musetti on Wednesday, particularly when coming forward towards the net, which he did frequently.
The Canadian is yet to lose a set in Shanghai and has been broken only once in three matches.
Rinderknech will look to fight fire with fire in the shape of his strong serve, while he’s another who is no mug at the net – expect plenty of points to be decided in the forecourt.
A first-set tie-break could be of some appeal at 5/2, although the way FAA has been able to deal with the Rinderknech serve in those previous meetings is enough to put me off that.
Daniil Medvedev v Alex de Minaur (Fri)
Medvedev came through a three-hour war with Learner Tien on Wednesday night and you wonder how well he’ll recover for this match, one which promises to be another grind.
The baseline exchanges were long and many against Tien and something similar will likely unfold here with neither man famed for their winner count.
De Minaur will be considerably fresher, too, having won his three matches so far in straight sets.
That said, Medvedev has recovered well in the past and it was interesting to hear the Russian speak the other day about how he liked playing in Shanghai as the conditions were a leveller – he admitted to struggling in the heat and humidity but said that, here, that was the case with all the other players, too.
He also insisted he would be fine physically for this contest.
While my natural reaction was that De Minaur might be a bet here, I’m surprised to see him around the 4/9 mark.
That’s too short for me.
Medvedev has won seven of their nine meetings on a hardcourt and, as I wrote in my outright preview, there’s no doubt he’s been improving under new coach Thomas Johanasson.
The 29-year-old says he’s happy with how he’s playing in Asia, highlighting the fact that even in the two matches he’s lost, he’s served for victory, and 7/4 looks a decent price.
I wouldn’t put anyone off backing that but, with an outright interest in Medvedev already on the table, I can resist the temptation to get involved.
Posted at 1810 BST on 08/10/25
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