Sunday’s Shanghai Masters final will, incredibly, see two cousins face off. Andy Schooler previews Arthur Rinderknech vs Valentin Vacherot.
Tennis betting tips: Shanghai Masters
1pt Arthur Rinderknech (-1.5) to beat Valentin Vacherot on the game handicap at 4/5 (General)
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Arthur Rinderknech v Valentin Vacherot (0930 BST)
“I can't even say it's a dream, because I don't think even one person in our family dreamt about it.”
So said Arthur Rinderknech after setting up a Shanghai Masters final with his cousin – and world number 204 – Valentin Vacherot.
If the players couldn’t have envisaged it, I’m not sure how us punters were supposed to. Something tells me the bookies won’t be paying out a penny on the antepost outright market. Both men were 500/1 shots.
While it’s the sort of storyline the media loves (who can blame them? It’s absolutely incredible), it’s also one which is possibly the biggest anti-tennis betting advert in history.
If not just one but two supposed no-hopers can make a final of one of the most prestigious tournaments on the calendar, are we all just wasting our time?
It certainly felt that way as our 40/1 each-way pick Daniil Medvedev fell to Rinderknech in Saturday’s semi-finals. The Russian led by a set – so presumably was around 1/8 at that stage – before losing in three.
That’s the sort of result which leaves you wondering where the next winner is coming from.
Of course, ideally, it will come in this match but two relatives playing each other in the biggest match of their lives – frankly it screams ‘leave it alone’.
The potential for nerves and a complete collapse of the form these two have shown throughout the tournament is large indeed.
It doesn’t help that I’ve seen very little of Vacherot – I’d be surprised if many readers have either. Players outside the top 200 don’t come onto the radar too often.
What we do know is he’s served very well in Shanghai, although arguably not as well as Rinderknech, whose 94% hold figure is very impressive. Medvedev had his chances on Saturday in the final two sets but the Frenchman stood firm, producing his best on the big points which is the trait of a champion.
While I certainly didn’t expect this from Rinderknech, I have written positively about him in recent times and so I do believe he’s a worthy favourite.
It could well be a factor that he’s the elder cousin here too, so there’s the possible mental block of looking up to his relative that Vacherot may have to overcome.
Rinderknech also has the greater experience.
He is the one who has played in an ATP final before, while it’s also worth mentioning he won the pair’s only previous competitive meeting without facing a break point, albeit that came back in 2018 on the Futures tour.
For me, his run to the final has also been more impressive – as well as Medvedev, he’s beaten Felix Auger-Aliassime, Jiri Lehecka and Alex Zverev. That’s four top-20 stars in a row.
It’s hard to knock Vacherot but in the last two rounds he’s beaten an injured Novak Djokovic and Holger Rune, who has often struggled in hot and humid conditions.
I’m tempted by the 13/8 about a straight-sets victory for Rinderknech but prefer to keep things simpler.
Rinderknech is 8/13 to win the match but we can get that up to 4/5 by backing him on the game handicap, giving up a 1.5-game start.
That’s a more respectable price for a column like this to be putting up and that’s the approach I’ll take here, albeit to small stakes.
After all, let’s face it, no-one would be surprised if this tournament of shocks ends with another of them.
Posted at 1920 BST on 11/10/25
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