Andy Schooler delivers his betting verdict on round two of the Rolex Shanghai Masters.
Tennis betting tips: Shanghai Masters
1pt Yannick Hanffman to beat Frances Tiafoe at 7/4 (General)
1pt Adrian Mannarino to beat Francisco Cerundolo at evens (General)
1pt Jordan Thompson to beat Ugo Humbert at 5/4 (betway)
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Frances Tiafoe v Yannick Hanfmann (Fri)
Tiafoe was last seen smashing up his racquet after defeat to Marton Fucsovics in Tokyo – his fourth successive defeat.
The American failed to impress during the summer hardcourt swing, which is supposed to be his best time of the season, and I suspect he’d rather be somewhere else right now.
His results during this part of the season over the years certainly suggest so.
Tiafoe went 1-2 on the Asian swing last year, while he failed to win a match in 2023 (0-2) and 2019 (0-2). Remember there was no such swing from 2020-22 due to COVID.
Despite this, he remains a firm favourite with the layers and his opponent’s price of 7/4 simply looks too big.
Hanfmann made the semi-finals of a Challenger Tour event last week in China and after moving quickly onto Shanghai, he’s already won thee matches, two in qualifying plus a victory over the higher-ranked Lorenzo Sonego.
That’s the sort of form which could take advantage of Tiafoe’s recent woes.
Admittedly, the American won the pair’s only previous meeting, although that was on grass last season. That contest saw just one break of serve with Hanfmann going 0-for-11 on break points.
If he’s able to create that number of chances here, the current version of Tiafoe seems unlikely to be able to stem the tide.
Francisco Cerundolo v Adrian Mannarino (Fri)
Mannarino has become a favourite of this column in recent months and this looks another good opportunity to back the Frenchman.
In short, conditions look too fast for Cerundolo but just fine for the in-form Mannarino.
As I’ve written before, Mannarino’s best tennis (and results) have tended to come on the faster surfaces over the years and the DecoTurf courts here suit his attacking game which will see him come to the net plenty.
He produced some impressive tennis in North American where he reached the last 16 of both Cincinnati – another very quick venue – and the US Open. Since arriving in Asia, he’s beaten both Alexander Bublik and Matteo Berrettini.
Cerundolo lost his opener in Beijing last week to Learner Tien and cold go the same way here. He’s just 2-2 lifetime at this tournament and 0-3 in Cincinnati, which rivals Shanghai as one of the tour’s fastest venues.
Ugo Humbert v Jordan Thompson (Fri)
Humbert is another seed under threat early doors in Shanghai.
The Frenchman has gone just 9-15 since winning the title in Marseille in February and he arrives here having won just one of his last six matches.
His best results tend to come indoors and I can see him having one eye on the tournaments that lie ahead over the next month or so.
Thompson is happier with the sun on his back and he’s another who likes the faster courts – this is a man who made the last 16 at Wimbledon earlier this year, despite carrying an injury.
In Asia, he’s suffered defeats to Alejandro Tabilo in Chengdu and Brandon Nakashima in Tokyo but both men went on to enjoy deep runs at those tournaments, Tabilo emerging as the champion.
Having seen off qualifier August Holmgren in the first round, when he won 80% of points behind his first serve and 57% behind his second, Thompson looks capable of progressing further.
He won the pair’s only previous meeting on outdoor hard and that came, notably, in Cincinnati last year where conditions are also on the fast side.
Posted at 1610 BST on 02/10/25
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