Andy Schooler delivers his betting verdict on round three of the Rolex Shanghai Masters, with matches taking place on Sunday and Monday.
Tennis betting tips: Shanghai Masters
0.5pt Arthur Rinderknech to beat Alex Zverev at 5/2 (General)
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The pitfalls of tennis betting have been very much on show in Shanghai.
Traditionally it has produced some of the fastest conditions on the ATP Tour but, for some reason, this year that doesn’t seem to be the case.
Taylor Fritz was among the players to point this out after his opening match, grumbling about “incredibly slow” conditions and the “very bad change”.
The particularly frustrating thing is that when it comes to the hardcourt tournaments, I always contact the organisers to ask about this aspect. Shanghai told me the same DecoTurf courts as last year would be in use. For the record, Fritz’s criticism was specifically about the courts, rather than simply the balls – the other big factor in how fast conditions are.
This could well be the death knell for my outright picks – Medvedev and Jiri Lehecka – and maybe someone like Alex de Minaur is now primed for a run to the final.
You may still be able to get around 14/1 – that’s 7/1 for a place in the final – when prices go back up.
Alex Zverev v Arthur Rinderknech (Mon)
In case you hadn’t already realised, I’m pretty angry and downbeat about the situation in Shanghai with my whole approach to the tournament now looking outdated because of things beyond our control.
I’m also tempted to rip things up and start again on this match – Rinderknech beat Zverev at Wimbledon and I’m sure would like quick conditions for this rematch too.
But, frankly, I’m struggling to find other options on the third-round coupon and there are other reasons why Rinderknech may prevail here.
For a start, Zverev finished his opening match nursing a toe injury. After requiring treatment during the final game of that match, the German bemoaned his physical ailments.
“It’s been a rough year from a physical standpoint,” he said. “We just talked about it in the locker room and the last time I played a tournament pain free was the Australian Open (in January).”
He did manage to serve the match out but admitted: “The serve kind of got me through that game. I don’t think running side to side would have helped me but I didn’t play any (long) points that game, so it was helpful to me.”
Rinderknech has been in good form in recent times, beating Casper Ruud in Cincinnati and then making the last 16 of the US Open.
While I suspect he’d have liked things speedy here, Rinderknech is far from clueless on slower courts and given he’s already come through two rounds at this event, he’s shown he’s not unduly troubled by the conditions on offer in Shanghai in 2025.
Rinderknech wasn’t broken by Zverev when they played for five sets at Wimbledon, notching a famous win, and his big first delivery is still capable of causing problems here.
Throw in the potential for Zverev to be below his best physically and a small bet on the underdog looks worthwhile, with the betting bank largely kept locked up for, hopefully, better days ahead.
Posted at 1540 BST on 04/10/25
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