After a 5/2 winner in the last round, Andy Schooler delivers his verdict on round four of the Rolex Shanghai Masters, which takes place across Tuesday and Wednesday.
Tennis betting tips: Shanghai Masters
1pt Felix Auger-Aliassime to beat Lorenzo Musetti at 10/11 (General)
| |
Felix Auger-Aliassime v Lorenzo Musetti (Wed)
The bookies have this as basically a 50-50 match but I’m leaning towards Auger-Aliassime.
He’s been broken only once in his two matches so far in Shanghai and looks settled in conditions.
Admittedly, Musetti has also done everything asked of him, although he didn’t convince greatly against Luciano Darderi on Monday, his compatriot creating plenty of chances.
Musetti leads the head-to-head 4-3, although it’s 2-1 to FAA on a hardcourt and the surface plays to his strengths in this match-up.
While the Italian can play on all surfaces, I still feel he’s something of a work in progress on hardcourts. My theory is backed up by the fact that he’s won only four of his last 19 matches against top-20 players on the surface.
Critics will point out one of those came against FAA this season in Miami but that came during a run of four defeats in five matches for the Canadian.
Six months on and he’s in much better form.
He was a quarter-finalist in Cincinnati and a semi-finalist at the US Open. At both tournaments, it took Jannik Sinner to stop him.
And while we’re on about records against the elite, Auger-Aliassime has won eight of his last 13 against the top 20 on hardcourts.
It is fair to say there isn’t a great deal between these two but I feel FAA can edge this.
Nuno Borges v Alex de Minaur (Wed)
I saw Borges against Taylor Fritz in Tokyo last week and he played pretty well only to stutter at the key moments.
He’s since negotiated three rounds here and I’m not convinced he should be on offer at 11/2 to win this – he’ll be capable of hanging in what should be some lengthy rallies and if De Minaur has one of those days when he throws in a few too many errors, the Portuguese will be in with a shout.
The trouble is I’m not prepared to back him to win the match and I’m struggling to find an alternative bet.
I always feel a 4.5-start on the game handicap is awkward – it can easily fall on the toss of the coin with a break in each set equating to 6-3 6-4 or 6-4 6-4, depending on the result of the pre-match flip.
Most tempting, I think, is Borges to win a set at 2/1 or both players to win a set at 5/2.
If you are seeking a bigger price, I won’t put you off but I'm not convinced enough to pull the trigger personally.
Posted at 1610 BST on 06/10/25
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at and .
