Tennis betting tips: Japan Open and China Open best bets

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1pt e.w. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the China Open at 33/1 (General)

1pt e.w. Taylor Fritz in the Japan Open at 11/2 (Unibet, BetMGM, Virgin Bet)

0.5pt e.w. Alex Michelsen in the Japan Open at 40/1 (General)

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China Open

• Beijing, China (outdoor hard)

As mentioned in the Tokyo preview below, Jannik Sinner is the man they all have to beat in Beijing.

He’ll be playing for the first time since his US Open final defeat to Carlos Alcaraz and I’m less concerned about the Italian in terms of fatigue than I would be the Spaniard.

After all, his three-month drugs ban earlier in the year means he’s played only 42 matches so far in 2025 so there should be plenty in the tank for the final two months of the season, which will see Sinner bid to regain the world number one spot. That should act as motivation in this part of the campaign.

In contrast to Alcaraz, Sinner has often gone well in the closing months of the season. Seven of his 20 ATP titles have come in the post-US Open period, including the Shanghai Masters last year and here in Beijing in 2023.

Last season, Sinner lost to Alcaraz in the final here so he’s well accustomed to what tend to be slower-than-average hardcourt conditions – they play on a DecoTurf surface in the Chinese captial.

In short, I doubt Sinner slips up this week but I’ve no interest in backing him at odds of 4/6.

I’d much prefer to try to find the finalist in the bottom half of the draw where the seeds all look worth taking on.

Alex Zverev is the man seeded to make the final but in five previous visits, he’s failed to do that.

It’s also fair to say he’s turning up this year in poorer form than many times in the past, with the German having disappointed at last weekend’s Laver Cup in San Francisco.

Expected to be a key player for Team Europe, he lost two out of two, going down in straight sets to both Alex de Minaur and, in the deciding match, Taylor Fritz.

The form of Russians Andrey Rublev and Daniil Medvedev is even worse.

Admittedly, the latter has performed well here in the past, making the final two years ago, but he lost to local wild card Yibing Wu in Hangzhou last week, the latest in a long line of disappointing results.

Once again, I’ll also mention the fact that he’s not won a title since May 2023, while even for those thinking in each-way terms, Medvedev has only contested one final in the past 18 months.

The other seed in the bottom half is Lorenzo Musetti and while he’s already found a winning groove in Asia, making the final in Chengdu, you have to wonder if his efforts there in tough (and much quicker) conditions will prove his undoing this week.

The man I’m prepared to oppose them all with is ALEJANDRO DAVIDOVICH FOKINA.

The Spaniard looked cooked at times during the North American hardcourt swing but he says he learned his lesson in terms of playing too much tennis.

After retirements in Toronto and Cincinnati, he said: “Not taking time off or skipping weeks has caught up with me. I’ve learned my lesson.

“After many months, I’m enjoying some rest and recharging with my wife. I’ll come back stronger and ready to fight again.”

Since the US Open, he’s gone a full month without a match and should be ready to go again in Beijing where the sluggish conditions should suit his game.

This is a player who sits sixth in the list of return games won on a hardcourt in 2025 – his figure is up at 28%.

Davidovich Fokina has won a lot of matches on this surface this season, making finals in Delray Beach, Acapulco and Washington. He held championship points in two of them. On the clay, there was also a semi-final run at the Monte Carlo Masters.

ADF looks to have a winnable opener against Camilo Ugo Carabelli and then could come meetings with Medvedev and Zverev, albeit neither looks nailed on to make it that far.

Some will be put off by his poor record in those match-ups but it’s worth pointing out both have improved in recent times.

Davidovich Fokina won his most recent clash with Medvedev – on a hardcourt in Montreal last season - while he’s 1-2 in the last three against Zverev, the two defeats both coming in a final set, including here in Beijing in 2023.

For me, there’s enough to like about the Spaniard to think he can make the final from this section at odds of 33/1.

Kinoshita Group Japan Open

• Tokyo, Japan (outdoor hard)

Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have dominated men’s tennis in 2025 and both are in action this week in Asia.

I’m sure the title double will be popular, although it won’t pay much and you may also struggle to get the bet on given the different start days in Tokyo (Wednesday) and Beijing (Thursday).

I couldn’t put anyone off it, to be honest.

Alcaraz, who plays this event in the Japanese capital, has won 48 of his last 50 matches, one of his losses coming at the hands of Sinner. Prior to that run, Holger Rune was the last man to beat the Spaniard, in Barcelona in April.

As for Sinner, he’s lost only five matches all year – four of them to Alcaraz.

The double may well win and maybe I should just put it up, but I’ve been writing these previews a long time and my approach has always been to look for value, which tends to mean backing larger prices than those on offer via the favourites.

Others will see my job as simply to turn a profit – nothing else – and if that means consistently backing the favourites, so be it.

I’ve never really seen it that way.

Having written throughout the Big Four’s dominance, I’m not sure I’d still be here writing had I just put up Djokovic or Federer every week at a short price, the theory being do people really need to be told to back the best?

Whatever you think on Alcaraz’s chances this week, it’s hard to feel there’s much value in odds of 8/13.

He’s already played 69 matches this season and you have to wonder whether that’s going to catch up with him at this time of year.

Alcaraz has certainly struggled to match his early-season standards in the post-US Open period in previous seasons.

Last year, he went 15-4 after leaving New York, in 2023 it was 7-5 and in 2022 – just after he’d won his first Grand Slam – it was 6-4.

In title terms, only one of Alcaraz’s 23 ATP crowns has come in the post-US Open period, while if you extend the time scale a bit further, just five of 23 have come post-Wimbledon.

These numbers suggest Alcaraz is more vulnerable now than at previous points in the campaign.

You could put his record down to fatigue, or a lack of motivation given the Slams are all done come mid-September.

On this occasion, Alcaraz does have the year-end number one spot to battle for, although it is something he has achieved before.

In terms of this week, this title isn’t as significant as the Masters one on offer in Shanghai next week, while there’s also the Paris Masters and the ATP Finals to come for Alcaraz and, possibly, the Davis Cup Finals, too.

Some would question why he’s playing Tokyo at all.

He’s already played at the Laver Cup since retaining his US Open title where he suffered a surprise defeat to TAYLOR FRITZ.

Fritz is in the field here, too, and he could well be worth backing as the alternative.

The second favourite is offered at 11/2 and so could be of some interest as an each-way shot, given most firms are still going half the odds for a place in the final.

Fritz should be full of confidence having beaten both Alcaraz and Alex Zverev – the latter in the decisive match – at the Laver Cup. He’s also a former champion in Tokyo, having claimed the title in 2022.

There is a potentially tough first-round match against Gabriel Diallo, a fellow big server, in round one but Fritz has beaten the Canadian twice already this season, with their hardcourt meeting in Toronto being won comfortably, 6-4 6-2.

Fritz looks a cut above anyone in the bottom half where Holger Rune also resides; the Dane continues to struggle, as does fellow seed Ugo Humbert.

Their third quarter looks relatively weak and perhaps ALEX MICHELSEN could take advantage.

Long-term readers will know I feel ‘lesser’ players can take a lot from weeks when they are surrounded by the elite.

That’s often during pre-season practice or a mid-season training camp but, on this occasion, it was at the Laver Cup where Michelsen was part of the victorious Team World squad.

I suspect practising with the likes of Fritz and Alex de Minaur, under the guidance of Andre Agassi and Patrick Rafter, will have had a positive effect on the young American, who has already enjoyed plenty of decent results this season.

Top-20 wins have come against Lorenzo Musetti, Karen Khachanov and Stefanos Tsitsipas, with the quarter-finals of the Toronto Masters reached.

A player who plays the vast majority of his tennis on hardcourts, Michelsen also made the last eight here 12 months ago.

With Rune and Humbert both struggling for form – the former lost both rubbers he played at the Laver Cup, including a singles match against Francisco Cerundolo – Michelsen could capitalise in this section of the draw and make a deep run at 40/1.

Frankly, the bottom half looks the safest way to oppose Alcaraz where a profit can still be made if your selection loses in the final.

For the brave looking to prey of the Spaniard’s poor record at this time of the season by siding with someone in the top half, sadly there isn’t a standout candidate, at least not in my book.

You could, however, consider Marton Fucsovics at 50/1.

The Hungarian has been playing well, capturing the pre-US Open title in Winston-Salem.

That helps explain his first-round loss at Flushing Meadows but he returned to action in Tokyo qualifying and duly won both matches in straight sets, losing serve only once.

Fucsovics hits big and flat, which is exactly the sort of game which can rush and surprise opponents.

He would face Alcaraz in the quarter-finals.

Another with potential is Casper Ruud, who served very well at the Laver Cup.

The DecoTurf in Tokyo isn’t the quickest surface around which will help the Norwegian, who is available at 25/1.

He avoids Alcaraz until the semis and did actually win the pair’s last meeting on a hardcourt, at last year’s ATP Finals, albeit the world number one was struggling with illness that day.

Posted at 1155 BST on 23/10/25

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