Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour previews and best bets for Dubai, Acapulco and Santiago

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1pt e.w. Matteo Berrettini in the Dubai Duty Free Championships at 16/1 (General)

1pt e.w. Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Dubai Duty Free Championships at 10/1 (General)

0.5pt e.w. Cameron Norrie in the Abierto Mexicano Telcel at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.5pt e.w. Alex Michelsen in the Abierto Mexicano Telcel at 25/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.5pt e.w. Jaime Faria in the Movistar Chile Open at 40/1 (Betfred)

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Dubai Duty Free Championships

• Dubai, UAE (outdoor hard)

Jack Draper landed this column some place money at 14/1 in Doha last week and the challenge is to repeat the trick in nearby Dubai.

I mean for us, not Draper – he’s withdrawn after last week’s effort – but many of those who competed in Doha are in this field.

They include the eventual champion, Andrey Rublev.

He’s got a good record at this event too, winning in 2022, finishing runner-up in 2023, while he was also a semi-finalist last year and in 2021.

However, I’m not convinced about his chances, primarily because last week was a tough workout for the Russian.

His quarter- and semi-finals both went to a final-set tie-break, while he was also taken to a deciding set by Draper.

After five matches last week, he’s facing another five in Dubai (there are no byes on offer to the leading seeds) and I’m happy to look elsewhere.

Likewise, I’m keen to swerve top seed Daniil Medvedev, whose form remains poor, while he was last seen retiring from his quarter-final in Doha due to illness.

Yes, Medvedev is also a former champion here but he’s clearly struggling on more than one front right now and looks a shaky favourite.

Stefanos Tsitsipas, seeded four, has similar problems with his form.

We sided with Alex de Minaur last week and he wasn’t far away, losing from match-point up to eventual winner Rublev in the last eight.

Perhaps he can go well again here, although it tends to play a bit faster in Dubai, where they use a DecoTurf surface. That’s not ideal for the Australian.

Defending champion Ugo Humbert holds decent claims again – he arrives here on the back of a title success in Marseille just over a week ago.

The Frenchman thrives on a quicker court and while this won’t be as fast as Marseille, he’s clearly done well in Dubai before.

A best price of 14s is tempting although I’m a tad concerned by an opening clash with Jiri Lehecka, who played well en route to the semis in Doha.

I am going to turn to two players who I feel should go well in these conditions though.

In the top half, I like the chances of MATTEO BERRETTINI.

He was striking the ball well in Doha where he took down Novak Djokovic before defeating Tallon Griekspoor. He was also a set up on Draper in their quarter-final before losing in three.

The Italian plays well when he’s serving well and that was certainly the case last week where he didn’t lose his own delivery in his first two matches.

Berrettini has only played here once before – as a youngster in 2019 – so there’s not really any course form to go on but if, as expected, conditions are a bit quicker, he should be even tougher to break.

He is in the Tsitsipas quarter where the other seed is Grigor Dimitrov, who has had an injury-disrupted start to 2025.

Gael Monfils will be Berrettini’s opening foe but the Italian leads 3-0 in that head-to-head.

In short, I like his chances at 16/1.

In the bottom half, preference is for FELIX AUGER-ALIASSIME.

He’s in with De Minaur – the pair could meet in the last eight – but it’s notable that FAA has won both of their previous meetings on a hardcourt.

Like Berrettini, he’s played this event only once before – losing in the last 16 two years ago – but his big first serve should have real cut-through here.

The Canadian made the semis in Doha last week, only losing to eventual champ Rublev 7-6 in the third.

Admittedly I was hoping he’d be a little bigger than 10/1 but I’m still prepared to play at a double-figure price.

Abierto Mexicano Telcel

• Acapulco, Mexico (outdoor hard)

They compete on a sluggish Solflex surface in Acapulco, one which has also been used for many years at Mexico’s other ATP event in Los Cabos.

According to the ranking system used by the excellent Tennis Abstract website, the two events were among the slowest hardcourt tournaments in 2025.

It should be noted that some of the biggest servers have still been able to hit through the court here – Alex Zverev won in 2021 and is the bookies’ favourite to repeat the trick this season.

However, the Solflex has produced winners of the kind you’d more expect from a stodgy surface.

Alex de Minaur has won here in the past two years but he’s not defending the title on this occasion.

However, CAMERON NORRIE is here.

He’s a former Acapulco finalist, while has also been to the title match twice in Los Cabos, winning there in 2021.

A slow hardcourt has been ideal for his game over the years – don’t forget he’s a former champion in Indian Wells, too.

The problem is he really struggled in 2024 and has slipped down the rankings but the start of 2025 has shown some signs that he is starting to battle back.

Norrie has already made quarter-finals in Hong Kong and Delray Beach, while he was a couple of points away from making another in Dallas where Reilly Opelka’s huge serve just about got the better of him.

Now he’s moving onto courts he’s really enjoyed over the years so I just feel he may be worth taking a punt on at 40/1.

The draw is admittedly tricky.

First up is Denis Shapovalov, who won in Dallas but that was in much faster conditions than those he’ll find here.

Then could come top seed Zverev, although the German arrives here straight off an underwhelming trip to South America where he was playing on clay on Friday night.

Zverev also has an awkward opener against Matteo Arnaldi.

A bit of loose change seems worth throwing Norrie’s way.

The bottom half is led by Casper Ruud, although Tommy Paul is the man the bookies regard as most likely to make the final.

Those two have played in the last two finals here and may go well again but I’m not taken by the price of either man.

In contrast, I do think ALEX MICHELSEN can outperform odds of 25/1.

The American, who has that big first serve possessed by former champions like Zverev, Nick Kyrgios and Juan Martin del Potro, has started 2025 very well and this a good opportunity for him to build on that impressive foundation.

After making the quarter-finals in Auckland, Michelsen beat both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Karen Khachanov en route to the last 16 of the Australian Open.

He was back on hardcourts in Delray Beach earlier this month where he progressed to the semi-finals, losing only to eventual champion Miomir Kecmanovic.

Michelsen faces wild card Yunchaokete Bu in the first round before possibly coming up against Lorenzo Musetti in round two, although the Italian has been nursing a calf injury lately, one which forced him to quit Buenos Aires mid-tournament and then miss Rio entirely.

Paul could follow in the last eight which would be key encounter. Michelsen has lost both previous meetings with his compatriot but one went to 7-6 in the third and the younger man’s current form would make him a more difficult proposition for the third seed.

All things considered, Michelsen is also worth a small bet at 25s.

Movistar Chile Open

• Santiago, Chile (outdoor clay)

I enjoy the Golden Swing and have had some decent winners during this part of the calendar over the years.

However, for the second season running, I’ve not really got a grip on it and I have to say I’m not confident at all, looking at this draw.

The top seed is also the favourite, namely Francisco Cerundolo. He made the final in Buenos Aires then exited at the quarter-final stage in Rio last week but, at the end of the day, neither was won.

There are also now considerably different conditions to deal with – they play 700m above sea level in Santiago so altitude is a big factor.

That makes the balls ‘fly’ more and it’s more difficult to control them in the thinner air.

As long-term followers will know, I like a player with a proven record in such conditions and Cerundolo’s record isn’t showing that.

In fact, a possible opening foe for the top seed – Yannick Hanfmann – does have altitude performance on his CV. The German has twice been to the quarter-finals here and could surprise at 40/1, although he will need to reverse recent form.

We certainly have got players here who have strong ‘course form’.

Sebastian Baez is back to defend his title – he’s in the bottom half with last year’s runner-up Alejandro Tabilo, and 2023 champion Nicolas Jarry. The latter pair are both Chilean.

The top half features another home hope. Cristian Garin won here in 2021 but needed a wild card to get into this year’s draw having slipped down the rankings. Thiago Seyboth Wild is another former champion in this section.

All have potential and there are many others you could make a case for, too, including Pedro Martinez – the 16/1 shot has been playing well over the past month, making the quarter-finals in Rotterdam and semis in Buenos Aires. He also made the last four here 12 months ago.

However, in a draw which looks wide open, I’m tempted to take a real punt on a player who has both recent form and a proven ability at altitude.

That man is JAIME FARIA.

He played well in Rio last week to make the quarter-finals and has broken into the world’s top 100 for the first time as a result.

That effort followed on from a strong Australian Open where he qualified and then took a set off Novak Djokovic in round two.

Basically, the Portuguese should be full of confidence heading to Santiago and, when conducting my research, it was eye-catching to discover how he ended last season.

He finished up in Curitiba, Brazil, a venue which is around 900m above sea level. And Faria emerged as champion that week on the Challenger Tour.

Of course, the level of opposition is much greater this week but Faria hung tough in Rio and in a tournament in which I’m struggling to be confident about anyone, I just think he’s worth chancing at 40/1.

Posted at 1700 GMT on 23/02/25, updated at 2050

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