Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour preview and best bets for Hamburg and Geneva

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1pt win Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Bitpanda Hamburg Open at 9/1 (General)

1pt e.w. Luciano Darderi in the Bitpanda Hamburg Open at 22/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.5pt e.w. Alexandre Muller in the Bitpanda Hamburg Open at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

1pt e.w. Fabian Marozsan in the Gonet Geneva Open at 28/1 (General)

1pt e.w. Hubert Hurkacz in the Gonet Geneva Open at 14/1 (bet365)

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Bitpanda Hamburg Open

• Hamburg, Germany (outdoor clay)

The Hamburg Open is this week’s big event on the ATP Tour, it being a 500-level tournament.

Once a Masters 1000 event played in the run-up to the French Open, Hamburg was demoted to this level back in 2009 when it was moved to a July slot.

Organisers may have felt a switch back to May would have worked in their favour but, that said, it can hardly have come as a surprise that many of its supposed stars have withdrawn on the eve of the tournament.

Jannik Sinner, Lorenzo Musetti, Holger Rune and Tommy Paul have all pulled out in recent days – they’ve basically played enough tennis in the French Open preparation and don’t want to arrive in Paris next weekend fatigued.

That spate of withdrawals means Alex Zverev is the top seed this week but anyone getting ready to pile into the only top-15 player in the field needs to know that he wasn’t on the original entry list.

Zverev has been granted a special, late wild card due to the high-profile absentees.

He may not have played as much claycourt tennis as the likes of Musetti and Rune in recent weeks, but you have to seriously doubt whether he wants five matches this week before the rigours that lie ahead in Paris.

I can’t be the only one who suspects organisers have pleaded with Germany’s star player to come along to ‘save’ their event from a commercial point of view.

I seriously doubt he’ll be playing in Saturday’s final and would suggest anyone considering backing him as the 2/1 favourite thinks again.

There are a number of other big names who have made it to the start line but the likes of Frances Tiafoe, Andrey Rublev and Felix Auger-Aliassime are all struggling for form.

They are a combined 5-12 since hitting the European clay and while they should be wanting matches under their belt this week – not everyone really will ahead of the French Open – they just aren’t playing well enough to justify support.

I’d much prefer to back some longer shots, who will be busting a gut to win this week and have shown some decent signs of form in recent times.

I’ll start in the bottom half where ALEJANDRO DAVIDOVICH FOKINA looks well drawn – he’s in the bottom quarter alongside Tiafoe.

The Spaniard reached two hardcourt finals in the early weeks of the season and carried that form into the claycourt season.

He’s already been to the semis in Monte Carlo and quarters in Barcelona, while he took Zverev to a final-set tie-break before losing in Madrid.

The worry here is the bizarre result he suffered last time out in Rome when he won just two games in an error-strewn defeat to Jesper de Jong.

I’ve not seen an injury/illness explanation for the manner of that loss (and didn’t see the match) but what I do know is that Fokina will certainly be keen to get back to winning ways this week and get that defeat out of his system.

As stated, the rest of the season has brought strong results and he should be able to compete in this field.

A small play at 9/1 is the advice.

I also want some bigger prices onside and will take that approach in the top half where the seeds – Zverev, Rublev, FAA and Brandon Nakashima – all look opposable.

I’m going to take a chance on ALEXANDRE MULLER in quarter one (that of Zverev and Auger-Aliassime).

OK, form in recent weeks hasn’t been sparkling but the Frenchman has still won a few matches.

What I do like is how he showed his ability on this surface when playing in the slow conditions of Rio in February.

There he took down Joao Fonseca, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Francisco Cerundolo and Francisco Comesana to make the final.

It’s always a grind in Hamburg too, where it’s due to get a bit chilly in the second half of the week. It will be slow.

If Muller can replicate that form, he’ll be in contention, especially given the doubts surrounding some of the supposed principals.

Back him each way at 40/1.

I was tempted by 80/1 Damir Dzumhur, who has shown some good signs of late – semi-finals in Bucharest; beating Mattia Bellucci and Sebastian Baez in Madrid.

However, he plays Rublev first up and I’m put off by the fact he’s lost five out of five to the Russian, winning only two sets.

I really hope I don’t regret switching horses but I’m instead going to back LUCIANO DARDERI in this second quarter.

He looks better drawn with German wild card Diego Dedura in round one before a possible meeting with Nakashima in round two. Then could come Rublev or Dzumhur.

Admittedly, the Italian’s form has tailed off rather of late but prior to that he’d been shining, winning on the Challenger Tour in Naples and the main tour in Marrakech. There was also a run to the last eight in Munich before n injury disrupted his rhythm in Madrid.

Darderi will be keen to return to the winning groove here and should be pushing hard this week rather than having one eye on Paris.

A quarter-finalist here last year before losing a tight three-setter to Sebastian Baez, Darderi gets my vote at 22/1.

Gonet Geneva Open

• Geneva, Switzerland (outdoor clay)

Novak Djokovic plays the Geneva Open for the second year in a row this week.

You don’t get the French Open favourites playing too often the week before Roland Garros and when they do there’s usually a reason.

In Djokovic’s case, it’s because he’s desperately short of form.

He arrives having suffered three defeats in a row, all in straight sets. Two of those matches have been on clay.

It’s the second time already this season that he’s lost three on the spin – the last time it occurred before this year was in 2018.

Clearly all is not well with the Serb, who plays in Switzerland having ditched coach Andy Murray.

He didn’t win here last season (lost in SFs to Tomas Machac) and I don’t think he’ll win this time around either. I certainly wouldn’t be backing him at 2/1 or, in some cases, considerably shorter.

Djokovic could face former champion Marton Fucsovics in his opening match and the Hungarian is exactly the sort of big-hitting opponent who could cause problems for a player out of nick. This has always been the surface Djokovic has taken the most time to adapt to and the lack of matchplay on clay means he may well be struggling for rhythm.

If Fucsovics doesn’t get him, maybe FABIAN MAROZSAN will.

Another Hungarian, Marozsan is 7-4 on clay at all levels since the tour returned to Europe and last week he took down Andrey Rublev in Rome before testing Alex Zverev.

That followed a good run to the Munich semi-finals and, notably, that event is played at a similar altitude to Geneva – we’re 375m above sea level here which gives that little bit of extra pace to the balls when they fly.

That suits Marozsan’s game. He hits hard and flat which means he can rush opponents, many of whom expect more time on the clay surface.

He can also mix things up with his touch game and given how he’s played in recent weeks, I think he’s overpriced in Geneva at 28/1.

The week before a Slam is always awkward for punters in the sense that it doesn’t take much for players to withdraw – slight niggles usually produce a cautious attitude with the bigger event looming, while there’s often an approach that a two or three matches will do. A full week? No thanks.

Finding players who will be fully motivated is important and I feel Marozsan falls into that category.

He’s not realistically a contender in Paris and, given recent results, he will likely see this as a good opportunity to reach his first ATP final.

Up in the top half, top seed Taylor Fritz is a player who will probably want matches this week but the reason for that is off-putting.

The American has gone just 2-2 on the European clay so far with one of his wins coming via retirement.

He’s another with a potentially tricky opener – Jaume Munar, who beat Seb Korda and Ben Shelton in Rome, could be Fritz’s first opponent.

Fritz is easily swerved at 11/2.

Karen Khachanov has played well of late and could be an alternative at 8/1 but he is one who might fall into that category of not necessarily wanting to play a full week given his recent runs in Barcelona and Rome.

Instead, preference is for HUBERT HURKACZ, who caught the eye in Rome where he reached the last eight.

OK, the Pole isn’t back to his very best but he certainly looked to be on an upward curve in the Italian capital where he took down Jakub Mensik.

His serve was back to causing problems, while he was striking the ball well from the back of the court.

A server of his quality should be enthused by the altitude advantage on offer this week and, having had some injury problems this season, he hasn’t got huge amounts of tennis in his legs.

A first-round defeat in Madrid means he arrives here having played only five claycourt matches this season so I do feel he’ll be wanting a deep run before heading to Roland Garros.

I’ll back him at 14/1.

Posted at 2210 BST on 17/05/25

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