Andy Schooler is on hand to preview Monday’s last-16 action at the French Open in Paris.
Tennis betting tips: French Open matches
1pt one or more tie-breaks in Alex Zverev v Tallon Griekspoor at 10/11 (Betfred)
1pt Ekaterina Alexandrova to win a set v Coco Gauff at 4/5 (General)
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Alex Zverev v Tallon Griekspoor
Zverev has once again clicked into the groove upon arrival at Roland Garros and he’s now only two wins away from reaching the semis for the fifth successive year.
Only one set has been lost so far and Flavio Cobolli was brushed aside last time out.
Zverev is actually the longest price of the four hot favourites in the men’s singles on Monday but he’s still only 21/20 to win in straight sets.
He may manage that but I suspect this will be tighter than many expect.
The head-to-head shows the German up 7-2 and 2-0 on clay but the latter two matches have both gone to a final set. Indeed, four of the last five have.
Returning to those clay meetings, one of them came here at Roland Garros 12 months ago when Zverev edged a fifth-set tie-break to progress, while the other came just a few weeks ago in Munich when, after two breakers, Zverev won the third set 6-4.
The propensity for tie-breaks is the angle I like here.
I’ve mentioned in the past on these pages the frequency with which Griekspoor goes the full distance in a set and while the numbers clearly dip a little on this slowest of the surfaces, he’s still played one in nine of his 18 claycourt matches in the current swing.
The Dutchman’s strong serve, coupled with a relatively poor return game, is behind that. His hold-break percentages this season are 86 and 14 respectively. Add the clay filter and the stats barely change – 86-15.
As you’ve been shown, the clay hasn’t stopped these two playing tie-breaks and in fact they’ve now played at least one in their last seven matches across all surfaces.
Three of the last four have seen two tie-breaks and that’s a 4/1 shot here.
However, I’ll stick with the less risky play – over 0.5 tie-breaks at just shy of even money.
Ekaterina Alexandrova v Coco Gauff
Alexandrova was very much on the shortlist as a potential outsider when I came to write my outright preview.
She had some excellent results in the warm-up events but when she was drawn in the same section of the draw as my main pick, Gauff, I had to leave her out.
Needless to say, especially how things have gone in week one, that I’m more than a little worried she’ll win this.
Still, trying to put the negative thoughts to one side, Gauff should win. She’s barely put a foot wrong in the first three rounds and leads the series 3-1.
That said, none of those matches has been played on clay and Alexandrova’s recent form should not be discounted.
The Russian has beaten the likes of Olympic champion Qinwen Zheng and top-10 stars Jessica Pegula and Mirra Andreeva since moving onto the clay – and all three were convincing wins, Alexandrova losing only five or fewer games in each match.
She’s that sort of player – when’s she’s hot, she’s very hot – and is capable of troubling Gauff.
The American is nothing if not a fighter and perhaps a 2-1 win for the favourite is worth backing at 16/5.
However, I’ll keep things simple and back the underdog to win a set at 4/5.
Posted at 2130 BST on 01/06/25
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