Tennis expert Andy Schooler previews Friday’s action at the French Open, with a couple of bets in his staking plan.
Tennis betting tips: French Open matches
1pt Daniel Altmaier to beat Hamad Medjedovic at 13/8 (bet365)
1pt Matteo Gigante (+4.5) to beat Ben Shelton on the game handicap at 8/11 (BoyleSports)
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Hamad Medjedovic v Daniel Altmaier
Altmaier was among Medjedovic's victims when the latter made the final in Marseille back in February, the quick conditions playing a big part there.
A change of surface could bring a change of result and I’m a little surprised to see the German at 13/8 to win this one.
He’s already taken down fourth seed Taylor Fritz in Paris and enjoyed some decent results in the lead-up to this tournament on the clay – Felix Auger Aliassime and Jaume Munar were both beaten in Monte Carlo, while Flavio Cobolli was taken down at the Turin Challenger.
Admittedly, Medjedovic is yet to drop a set at Roland Garros and has done little wrong but neither has he faced anyone of note. Kamil Majchrzak was his first-round foe, with qualifier Juan Manuel Cerundolo next up – a player Altmaier also dismissed in that Turin event.
Altmaier’s second serve has held up well across the two rounds so far and if he’s able to set up the rallies nicely with his serve, I can see him progressing from this one.
Ben Shelton v Matteo Gigante
Shelton hasn’t played since Sunday’s first-round battle with Lorenzo Sonego.
While he will undoubtedly have had a chance to recover physically from that five-set affair, such a long break mid-tournament is far from ideal (and pretty much unprecedented), especially for a player who lacks consistency on the clay.
The American has enjoyed plenty of wins on the surface but it’s notable that nearly all his success came in Madrid and Munich, two tournaments where altitude is in play and helps his big first serve.
Down in slower conditions, he’s been thumped by both Jaume Munar (6-2 6-1) and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
While Shelton has risen to world number 13, I’m still a bit disappointed that he doesn’t make more of that crunching first delivery with the speed it can generate.
Some numbers back me up here.
Shelton’s first-serve points won percentage of 70 is only 24th on the ATP Tour this season, well below his ranking position.
Looking at second-serve points won and things are better – sixth – but notably that drops to 18th when the clay filter is applied.
The hold-and-break percentages on clay are also poor – 73-15 for a total of 88 isn’t good.
The question is, can Gigante take advantage?
Well, he’s just claimed a career-best win, beating former finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas in four sets, so confidence should be high.
That continued a fine run on the courts of Roland Garros – the Italian came through qualifying, so he certainly isn’t short on match play.
I feel he’s capable of keeping this close and so will back him on the game handicap – he’s 8/11 getting a 4.5 start.
Posted at 1630 BST on 29/05/25
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