Jon Newcombe has three bets to consider for Sunday's action in the Six Nations, when Scotland host Ireland at Murrayfield.
Six Nations betting tips: Scotland vs Ireland
3pts Scotland under 19.5 points at 5/6 (William Hill)
2pts Ireland to win by 8-14 points at 16/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
1pt Dan Sheehan last try-scorer at 8/1 (BoyleSports)
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Scotland vs Ireland
- Sunday 1500 GMT
- Murrayfield Stadium, Edinburgh
- Live on BBC
This is a pivotal game for both teams. If Scotland lose it’ll be another deflating loss against a top-ranked team, another example where a team stacked full of talent has once again failed to fulfil its potential. While defeat for Ireland would end their bid for a historic three-peat of titles and give credence to the assumptions that this group’s best days are behind them.
To some, this is now the fiercest rivalry in the Six Nations, and it should make for a titanic tussle between two sets of Celtic warriors. Scotland have to show they have got it in them to win big games and, emotionally, they might have the edge, especially at Murrayfield. However, it’s hard to ignore the winning mentality that runs deep in this Ireland team, who have the know-how to get the job done.
Before the Six Nations began I highlighted Scotland’s lack of ruthlessness as a cause for concern, and the way they dropped their standards and tempo in allowing Italy to come back from 14-0 down and to then be level at 19-19 in the second half, has done nothing to allay those concerns. Ireland won’t let them off the hook. True enough, Ireland took 35 minutes to get going against England but after that, it was one-way traffic and the end scoreline of 27-22 in their favour flattered the visitors.
In the Autumn Nations Series, Scotland averaged 3.9 points from every visit into the opposition 22 when they played weaker opposition in Fiji and Portugal, whereas in their two toughest Tests – the defeat to the Springboks and a win against the Wallabies – that figure fell to a distinctly below-par 1.4. Scotland took five of their eight chances when they were in the red zone against Italy, but this Ireland defence is different gravy, on a par with the Springboks in terms of physicality, and will be a much tougher nut to crack.
Against all other leading nations, Scotland average a fraction under three tries per game during the Gregor Townsend era but that drops to just over one per game when Ireland are the opposition. With that in mind, I reckon Scotland will score fewer than 20 points, which won’t be enough to win them the game.
Ireland have the upper hand in the head-to-head at Murrayfield, winning eight of the 12 Six Nations fixtures in the Scottish capital and they are currently on a 10-match winning streak all told. For Scotland to have any chance of turning the tide, they have to have more ball and territory than they did in last year’s match; Ireland were on the front foot for long periods and ended up winning a hard-fought encounter 17-13.
To do this, Scotland need to much more disciplined than they have typically been against Ireland in the past. They have only won the penalty count once in their last 16 meetings, and if they come out on the wrong side of James Doleman’s whistle on Sunday, Ireland won’t need a second invitation to pin them into coffin corner and use their driving maul as a try-scoring weapon.
Hooker Dan Sheehan profited last year in rumbling over for a joint-high five tries but the Leinster man, who came off the bench and scored a flashier try against England, is again having to play second fiddle to Ronan Kelleher. Kelleher is odds-on to get on the scoresheet at some point in the match, which I don’t think represents any value, so we’re going to stick with Sheehan to be the last try-scorer at 8/1, our selection against England which would have come good if it hadn’t been for a bit of Tom-foolery at the end of the match in Dublin, with tries from Tom Curry and Tommy Freeman spiking the bet.
Only once before have Scotland won back-to-back games at the start of the Six Nations (2023) and I don’t fancy them to buck the trend here. Ireland know how to stifle the Scottish attack, and with the teams not too dissimilar to last year (Ireland have 18 of the same 23) it’s difficult to see the narrative changing too much. Ireland won 22-7 on their last visit to Murrayfield and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a similar margin between the teams on Sunday.
Posted at 1755 GMT on 07/02/25
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