Jon Newcombe expects England to run out easy winners against Italy, but sees value in siding with the underdogs to score first.
Six Nations betting tips: England vs Italy
3pts England (-21) to win on the handicap at evens (bet365)
1pt Italy penalty first scoring play at 7/2 (BoyleSports)
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England vs Italy
- Sunday 1500 GMT
- Twickenham
- Live on ITV
Will this be the match where England’s attack finally ignites, or will the Allianz Stadium crowd by left cold by another episode of Bore-thwick-Ball?
I’ll be honest, it really is hard to fathom out which version of England will turn up, but I don’t buy into the notion that this is Italy’s best chance to get a historic first win at the 32nd attempt. England will win but the perennial question of ‘by how many?’ is a tougher one to answer.
Across their 12 previous Six Nations matches against Italy at Allianz Stadium, England have failed to score 4+ tries just twice, drawing a blank in an 18-11 win in 2013 and crossing just once in a 20-7 victory in 2007. The 12 victories have come with an average winning margin of 29 points, half of those have fallen between 20-29 and 30-39-point spreads, and only three have been by fewer than 20 points.
The handicap line for this match is around 21.5, so you’d like to think they’d cover that against an Italian side that showed they are still capable of imploding in the record 24-73 defeat to France in round three.
With multiple try scorers likely, the 3/1 and upwards about the first scoring play being an Italian penalty rates the value call, even though the most prolific points scorer in this year’s Championship, Tommaso Allan, has been dropped to the bench.
England’s discipline has largely been on point, and they don’t tend to give too many penalties away, but while not in the same class as Allan, Paolo Garbisi is more than capable of giving Italy an early presence on the scoreboard before England ultimately run out convincing winners.
Posted at 1320 GMT on 07/03/25
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