Jon Newcombe is on course for a profitable Six Nations and he's hoping to sign off in style with a range of tips for Super Saturday.
Six Nations betting tips: France vs Scotland
2pts France to score over 41.5 points at 4/5 (William Hill
2pts France -16 on the match handicap at evens (General)
1pt Louis Bielle-Biarrey last tryscorer at 13/2 (General)
France vs Scotland
- Saturday 2000 GMT
- Stade de France
- Live on ITV
A first Six Nations title since 2022 is within France’s grasp and it’s hard to see Scotland spoiling the party in Paris. And barring an unusual turn of events, our pre-tournament selections of a FRANCE win (2/1) and LOUIS BIELLE-BIARREY (9/2) to be top try scorer looks as safe as Fabien Galthie’s job right now.
France are playing with a real ‘joie de vivre’ and there probably isn’t a more dangerous team in world rugby when that’s the case. With one round still to go, Les Bleus have scored 26 tries and 183 points, their best-ever return in the championship, and have England’s all-time Six Nations record of 29 tries and 229 points from 2001 within their sights. Both of those records look to be under serious threat this weekend, as I expect this to be game where points and tries are definitely not at a premium.
France couldn’t have probably asked for a better final day opponent in terms of the style of play than Scotland. Scotland won’t adopt spoiling tactics, they pride themselves on playing with ball in hand and with width on their game, and the looser they get, the more opportunities there will be for France to pounce.
Not all final round games are free-for-all blow-outs, but it’s hard to imagine this being anywhere near as close or as low-scoring as last year’s flukey 20-16 win for the French at Murrayfield. FRANCE OVER 41.5 POINTS and more than 8.5 tries in the match both make plenty of appeal if you're building your own bets, with the former considered a strong fancy at just a shade of odds-on.
Half of France’s 26 tries have been scored by French wingers and it’s improbable to think that one of, if not both, Bielle-Biarrey and Damian Penaud will get their names on the scoresheet in Saturday’s finale.
Bielle-Biarrey has matched Jacob Stockdale’s record return of seven tries in a single championship and is three clear of his nearest rivals, England’s Tommy Freeman and Scotland’s Huw Jones at the top of the try-scoring charts. As Bielle-Biarrey is unlikely to get subbed off and the final quarter could spiral into basketball-like, end-to-end game, there’s no player better placed than the pacey winger to exploit the space that will open up.
While Scotland won in Paris when Duhan van der Merwe scored a last-gasp matchwinner in 2021, that remains their only victory there in the Six Nations and when it comes to this stage of the competition, France are on a six-game winning streak in round five. It’s all adding up to be a night of celebration at the Stade de France.
Posted at 1110 GMT on 14/03/25
Six Nations betting tips: Wales vs England
2pts England -10 on the match handicap at evens (General)
2pts Elliot Daly anytime tryscorer at 2/1 (Betfred)
1pt England to win by 11-15 points at 13/2 (Betfred)
1pt Taulupe Faletau anytime tryscorer at 13/2 (BoyleSports)
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Wales vs England
- Saturday 1645 GMT
- Millenium Stadium
- Live on BBC
Wales will be looking to summon up the spirit of Wembley 1999, or Cardiff in 2013, as they look to sign off their campaign with a statement win. Scott Gibbs and Alex Cuthbert became Welsh heroes for their roles in those famous victories and now, Wales need someone new to step up to the plate.
However, if Wales are to win this one, it will have to be purely by collective effort as their game-breakers are so few and far between. Maybe TAULUPE FALETAU will roll back the years and have a stormer? He’s shown signs in this championship that he’s not done yet and having had a try chalked off last weekend after Blair Murray’s impression of Nigel Walker in the build-up, he is as good a contender as any to get his name on the scoresheet for Wales.
Playing England in Cardiff when they have got something to play for is worth a 10-point start for Wales in terms of motivation. And with caretaker head coach Matt Sherratt taking control of the team for the final time, there wouldn’t be a better parting gift that an unlikely victory against England.
It does in some ways have the feel of one of those matches of old where England could get ambushed. But looking at the Welsh line-up, it has very little presence or pace. So while I expect a fire and brimstone approach from the off from Wales, it would take a very poor performance from England for them not to pull through and get a reasonably comfortable win, covering the HANDICAP.
One reservation is that Steve Borthwick has tinkered with his line-up just when things appeared to be settling down nicely on the selection front. Having three opensides and three fly-halves in the squad suggests a fast-paced approach but with no specialist centre cover, Borthwick is rolling the dice when he is normally risk averse.
Some of that risk is offset by the fact that the 9-10-12-13 axis all play together at club rugby, so you’d like to think there will be some fluency to England’s play, especially as the Curry twins both start, which will help them negate the breakdown threat of Jac Morgan.
ELLIOT DALY’s selection on the wing might have surprised a few people but he’s made well over a third of his England starts out wide, and has history when it comes to scoring against Wales in Cardiff, having broken the home supporters’ hearts with a dramatic late effort in 2017.
He’s been looking sharp this championship and could capitalise on opposite number Ellis Mee’s inexperience, so at 2/1, he’s better value than rookie Tom Roebuck on the other side.
Wales fans would take a 3-0 win over Namibia right now to bring their record 16-game losing streak to an end, but to do it against England would require more spuds than chippy lane on a matchday evening in Cardiff. So our chips are going on England to win, and by a double-digit score to keep the pressure on France at the top of the table, while condemning Wales to our pre-tournament prediction of another wooden spoon.
Six Nations betting tips: Italy vs Ireland
2pts under 61.5 total match points at 6/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Italy penalty first scoring play at 7/2 (bet365)
1pt James Lowe to score the first try at 15/2 (Sky Bet)
- Scroll down for Wales vs England and France vs Scotland
Italy vs Ireland
- Saturday 1415 GMT
- Stadio Olimpico
- Live on ITV
Even though they still have some skin in the game in terms of the title race, emotionally this might be a difficult game for Ireland to get up for after last week’s mauling at the hands of France. Irish supporters were screaming Bleu murder after seeing their side dismantled 42-27 in Dublin. With that defeat their title hopes are now out of their hands with favours needed from both Wales and Scotland if they are going to secure an unprecedented three-peat of Six Nations crowns.
Given that they’ve only lost once to Italy in the Six Nations – back in 2013 – an Ireland win is almost inevitable. But it could take them a while to find their mojo and at the risk of repeating ourselves from last week, Italy to score first isn’t a bad shout. That tip would have come good against England had Tommaso Allan been on the field, as Italy were awarded an early penalty just inside England’s half which Paolo Garbisi chose to kick to the corner rather than at the posts, as it was out of his range.
Allan is restored to full-back for this game, however, and Italy will look to build their score through him, which is why going high on penalties makes sense should you unearth specials with your choice of bookmaker. We'll go for ITALY PENALTY as the first scoring play at 7/2.
Italy’s decision to bench captain Michele Lamaro is an interesting one, but it could be a good call because it’s seen the armband passed to their most impressive player, outside-centre Juan Ignacio Brex. In Brex’s only previous match as captain, Italy dug deep to defend their line with equal determination from first whistle to last, restricting the All Blacks to a below-par 29-11 win in Turin last November.
Lamaro has been found partly culpable for the second-half surrenders that have dogged the Azzurri’s campaign, but the Brex-it version of Italy should put more barriers in Ireland’s way to the try line. The return of first-choice wings, JAMES LOWE – who has three tries in his last three appearances against Italy – and Mack Hansen, does increase the visitors’ potency in attack though, so they should be good to get to around 36 points, their score without any in reply last year.
However, with Italy showing they’re capable of creating scores of their own and Allan’s boot to be feared, the Azzurri might just keep within the handicap line of 20.5 points.
For me, it will be a stretch for the total points to go over 60 points. If you take out last weekend’s result against the free-scoring French, Ireland’s last 10 Six Nations matches only average 42.4. Italy have won more games in the fifth round than any other and I’m inclined to think they won’t just roll over and hand Ireland easy points.
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